A Head Coach Botches the Super Bowl, and it wasn't Pete Carrol

[Hootie]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-pete-carroll/

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

"hey pete...2nd and goal from the 1...let's have our 5'10" QB throw a slant into the middle of the field instead of hand the ball to MARSHAWN LYNCH. Nothing bad can happen, right?"

One explanation:

They really wanted Russell to be MVP (which he was going to be regardless) over Marshawn. And even if he wasn't, and Marshawn did win...who ****ing cares?!

Is MVP bigger than the Super Bowl? What a dumb thing Seattle tried to do for their QB. Breathtakingly stupid.

Excellent call the guy was wide open Wilson just screwed the pooch without question. That pass is 3 feet back toward the WR and boom touchdown.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by GoChargers

He's trying to spin that playcall into an excuse to still rank Fivehead over Brady by working the "Brady got lucky again" angle. Plus, by harping on the playcall, he can absolve Wilson of throwing arguably the worst choke interception in NFL history.

And it was the worst chokejob in history. Worse than Peyton Manning even.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by TimBone

Yeah...I've been harping on the no timeout the last couple of days with my buddies. When they showed Belichick watching the last minute unfold, it was the first time where he looked like he didn't know what to do. I thought it was obvious.

As far as the decision to pass, I don't think it's as terrible as everybody makes it out to be. I think Collinsworth's huge reaction sparked a lot of the fan outrage. Everybody expected the Seahawks to run, including the Pats. Pats had personnel in the game to play the run. I wouldn't have passed, but I can understand the thought. My biggest issue is the type of pass play they called. Not only did that call take Lynch out of the game, it also took Wilson's best attributes out of the game.

Belichick knew what to do. He knew exactly what to do. It was semi-brilliant. Anytime you think you have Belichick figured you are wrong. Dude went for it on 4th and 4 on his own 28. Why?

Maths! Thats why.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

I keep hearing this talk about them not being able to run the ball three times in 26 seconds. A running play of less than a yard takes 4 seconds tops. Timeout is called with 22 seconds left. Another run takes the clock to 18 seconds. Am I to believe that an NFL team can't use that timeout to plan to hurry up and run a second play in under 18 seconds?

It's not like they would have had lineman running 40 yards down the field. They were at the goal line. All they had to do was get in their stances. Run a QB sneak if you have to. What a joke these excuses are...

If you run and take a time out you are left having to pass

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I don't fault him for the pass at all...Bill Barnwell, on Grantland, even says the receiver should have made a better play.

What can you do? It's a timing route called on the 1 god damn yard line where he threw the ball in the middle of the field.

All-time horrendous playcall. That's really the only narrative for that.

But keep on talking about how Russell led his receiver too much. Dumb.

Passes like that should be thrown low around the belt line so that it's hard for the DB to pick it off, not high where their hands are.
He also should have thrown it much sooner than he did.

I agree that it wasn't a well placed pass. Wilson deserves some criticism along with Lockette, Bevell and Carroll.

[morphius]

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

If you run and take a time out you are left having to pass

I also believe the last thing you want to do on the play that defines your season is rushing it. The pass on second optimizes the time the best, assuming incomplete if no TD. Plus you don't have to worry about a 10 second run off if you do rush it too much.

I still think they win if they run it twice, but hey they got a lucky catch to set it up, karma collected from them quickly.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by morphius

I also believe the last thing you want to do on the play that defines your season is rushing it. The pass on second optimizes the time the best, assuming incomplete if no TD. Plus you don't have to worry about a 10 second run off if you do rush it too much.

I still think they win if they run it twice, but hey they got a lucky catch to set it up, karma collected from them quickly.

Exactly. The pass is the correct hedge. And the play was totally there. Wilson has to shoulder 80% of the blame and to his credit he has taken 100% of the blame.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

Excellent call the guy was wide open Wilson just screwed the pooch without question. That pass is 3 feet back toward the WR and boom touchdown.

If the pass is 3 feet back he doesn't cross the goal line. Butler was breaking so hard he would have driven him back.

It's sad that a blown call has taken over all the other amazing facets of the game. The miraculous catch, Pete's balls of steel going for the TD with 6 seconds left, Belichick's masterful game plan.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

If the pass is 3 feet back he doesn't cross the goal line. Butler was breaking so hard he would have driven him back.

It's sad that a blown call has taken over all the other amazing facets of the game. The miraculous catch, Pete's balls of steel going for the TD with 6 seconds left, Belichick's masterful game plan.

Momentum would cause a 90% chance he crosses the goal line or Butler jars it loose either way move on to the next play. I agree with you it was an excellent game. Someday Hootie will climb down and give up but I'm not sure I will be alive to see it.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

Momentum would cause a 90% chance he crosses the goal line or Butler jars it loose either way move on to the next play. I agree with you it was an excellent game. Someday Hootie will climb down and give up but I'm not sure I will be alive to see it.

Butler annihilated him. I honestly don't think he crosses the goal line. In any event, it was, IMO, the worst play call in Super Bowl history, but one that Butler said they practiced in prep so kudos to Belichick and his game preparation.

[lcarus]

That pass play really should have worked. It took a great play by Browner and Butler.

[Amnorix]

Maybe it was just a mistake. Maybe Belichick just lost his shit in the heat of the moment, BUT, honestly, I like Bill Simmons's explanation better.


1:06 (First-and-goal, NE 5): Beast Mode rambles left and heads for the end zone (I’ll admit it: I absolutely wanted him to score) before Patrick Chung (shoestring grab to slow him down) and Dont’a Hightower (got there just in time) bring him down at the 1.11 Timeout, Patriots. Also, I’m still dead inside. This is what Hannibal Lecter felt like after Murder Victim No. 12, when he was running out of ways to stay interested and started telling himself things like, “Maybe I could EAT the victims.” I am dead inside. I can’t feel anything.

0:58 (Second-and-goal, NE 1): Wait, they’re not calling timeout.

0:56: Call timeout.

0:50: CALL TIMEOUT!!!!!!!

0:48: I AM NO LONGER DEAD INSIDE!

0:45: WHAT IS HAPPENING?

0:42:



0:40: I AM HAVING A STROKE!

0:35:



0:32: OK, let’s shift into present-day mode. We know what happened now, but it made no sense at the time (and took me nearly 24 hours to understand). This Washington Post piece helped. A long, fascinating email from a poker player helped. Talking to two of my Patriots sources helped. Watching the game tape over and over again definitely helped.

Here’s what we know: Seattle had already wasted two timeouts, so it had to pass on second or third down. If it ran Lynch on second down and didn’t score, it would have had to burn the third timeout and pass on third down, too.

But the Seahawks were expecting Belichick to call timeout. Only he didn’t. Remember that seemingly unimportant timeout that Brady wasted? That made it impossible for New England to stop the clock three times. This was now a poker game. What do you do when you know you have the lousier hand? You bluff.

I believe he hatched this plan during Seattle’s second timeout: If Lynch doesn’t score on first down, here’s what I am doing next. He liked having those 50-50 pass odds on second down. He wanted the game to speed up. He wanted confusion and chaos. He wanted that in-game pressure to tilt Seattle’s way. If you’ve ever been at the Super Bowl for a big win-or-go-home drive inside the 10, it’s more chaotic than you’d ever imagine. I remember being there when the 2012 Niners drove for a first-and-goal against the Ravens, seemed like they were scoring, failed on first down and then, suddenly, the energy in the building changed. Everything got tense. You could feel it. Like being on a speedboat that’s going a little too fast.

Belichick made an emergency plan, felt that in-stadium energy shifting after Lynch’s first-down run, then thought to himself, One timeout, one yard to go. They’re passing — either a quick slant or Wilson rolling out. We spent the whole week practicing how to defend both plays. We can absolutely stop this.12 Remember, Butler told reporters afterward that they’d specifically practiced to defend THIS PASS PLAY. And remember …

Door A: Goal-line stand, Pats win or lose.

Door B: Timeout, New England. The Seahawks get to regroup, talk it over and think of their perfect play. If they score on second down, Brady has to dink-and-dunk for 55 yards in less than 50 seconds, against the league’s best secondary, with one timeout and no deep threats. If they don’t score (and Belichick uses his last timeout), but they score on third down, now Brady’s probably-doomed dink-and-dunk routine is happening in less than 45 seconds with NO timeouts. (And Gostkowski needs to nail his field goal. And overtime needs to go the right way …)

Don’t forget — Belichick created the defensive plan that stymied the 1990 Bills. He helped Bill Parcells drag Vinny Testaverde to a freaking AFC Championship Game. He went 5-11 in his first Pats season, and from that point on, he has gone 170-54 in the regular season and 21-8 in the playoffs (including Sunday). He has the most playoff wins ever. He’s one of two head coaches to win four Super Bowls. He has coached a record six Super Bowl teams. He has won 11 of the last 12 AFC East titles. He’s the only coach to ever finish 16-0 in the regular season. He’s the only active member of the 200-win club (only seven people in the club, by the way), the only active coach with more than 170 wins, and one of four coaches who won 100 more games than they lost. The last time Belichick finished below .500, Bill Clinton was president.

Pardon my French, but I’m going out on a limb and saying it wasn’t a ****ing accident that Belichick never called timeout. He said to himself, We have a better chance of stoning them than we do of getting that field goal.13 He redirected the pressure to Seattle’s side and hoped they’d implode. Well …

[Hootie]

Give me a ****ing break...

That is a New England homer TRYING to justify the reason why THE GREATEST COACH ever made an all-time **** up. That's all it is.

It wasn't the right move, it worked anyways. Cool.

That said, I'm done with it all. I can't win. I've admitted it was the greatest Super Bowl ever, a great game, a legacy Brady game, an all-time great Brady postseason, etc etc etc

and all it is now by everyone else is trolling

I've moved on to baseball season. Ignorning this thread and the other thread. Have fun.

[-King-]

What was the biggest choke of all time? Russel Wilsons interception in the superbowl? Or Peyton Mannings interception in the superbowl?

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Give me a ****ing break...

That is a New England homer TRYING to justify the reason why THE GREATEST COACH ever made an all-time **** up. That's all it is.

See, I really have trouble with this. I honestly think he intentionally decided not to call timeout because he thought his odds were better without it.

You can DISAGREE with that decision, of course. You may think his odds would be improved by calling that timeout. The statistical models may think that also. But I'm pretty confident BB didn't think that.

"And you can't really argue with the 50 seconds to go downfield with no deep threats against Seattle's secondary and then set up for a FG" isn't likely to work out well.

Have fun.

I plan to.