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Old 09-22-2018, 02:28 PM  
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is online now
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Tariffs could mean a 2M drop in car sales and cost 715,000 jobs

This is what happens when you start a trade war. Trump thinks trade wars are good, and they're easy to win.

He's wrong.

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Tariffs could mean a 2M drop in car sales and cost 715,000 jobs, warns auto industry group

"Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place has made U.S. auto exports uncompetitive,” said one industry insider.

The impact of President Donald Trump's escalating tit-for-tat over tariffs is already being felt, say auto industry experts. New car prices are beginning to rise, and auto exports are dropping. But a new report warns that sales could plunge by as much as 2 million vehicles a year, resulting in the loss of up to 715,000 American jobs and a hit of as much as $62 billion to the U.S. GDP.

The Center for Automotive Research cites the biggest concern as the threatened use of trade rules known as Section 232 that would declare foreign-made cars and car parts a threat to national security. That could trigger a “downward cycle” in an auto industry already showing signs of decline after rebounding from the Great Recession, said Kristin Dziczek, a vice president and senior economist at the Center for Automotive Research, or CAR, in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

CAR’s new study is echoed by a variety of other studies looking at the potential impact of the Trump administration’s escalating trade war.

Already enacted tariffs on imported aluminum and steel have added about $240 to the cost of producing a new car, truck, or crossover in the U.S., noted Peter Nagle, a senior economist with research firm IHS Markit. And the first round of tariffs with China is adding still more to the price that manufacturers have to pay for a variety of parts used on American assembly lines.

The impact will grow as a result of the second round of China tariffs, Nagle added, cautioning that a “dizzying” series of trade moves will “exacerbate” the problems the auto industry faces as it struggles to head off the first downturn in sales since emerging from the depths of the last recession. Activating tariffs using Section 232 rules would likely prove devastating, he warned.

Nagel estimated consumers would be “looking at price increases of $1,300 for a typical mass market product, up to $5,800 for a luxury vehicle.” Those increases would not be limited to just imported vehicles. Toyota, for example, has forecast the price of a U.S.-made Camry would rise about $1,600.

In line with the new CAR study, IHS forecasts U.S. new vehicle sales would plunge by around 2 million vehicles annually, to 16.5 million a year from 2019 to 2025.

Add the possible tear-up of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the impact could be devastating. Under NAFTA, automakers have established a continent-wide network of parts and vehicle assembly operations. That’s backed up by a global production system that has been finely tuned, with little room for disruption. But industry experts warn that the Trump administration’s trade moves threaten to fracture that grid.

The impact could mean more than just higher costs. A number of medium-sized and smaller parts suppliers could be forced out of business, unable to afford the cost of relocating their operations back to the U.S. That could result in disruptions at assembly plants, said Nagle, possibly meaning shortages of some products, and a big hit to automakers’ profits.

With auto sales already declining, manufacturers have been struggling to minimize the impact on consumers from tariff-related cost increases. But, at some point, they will have to pass them on, resulting in higher sticker prices. But consumers are already struggling to deal with their car payments, driven up as the cost of the typical vehicle sold in the U.S. approaches $35,000. Vehicle loans are being stretched out to record levels, with 60, 72 and even 84-month financing becoming more the norm than the exception.

But trade is a two-way street, and the U.S. is already beginning to feel the impact in terms of auto exports. Ironically, shortly before the Trump administration enacted the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods, that country announced plans to reduce its own duties on imported vehicles from 25 percent to 15 percent. Now, however, U.S.-made vehicles are subject to 40 percent tariffs, making them even less competitive with auto imports from Europe or Japan, as well as vehicles made in China.

BMW, the largest exporter of American-made vehicles to China, says it is looking for ways to maintain demand for the X5 utility vehicles produced in South Carolina, perhaps boosting sales in the U.S. or Europe. But Ford has already announced plans to cut production of the Mustang and other vehicles shipped to China.

The escalating trade war with China “will further harm the U.S. auto industry and American workers and consumers," said John Bozzella, CEO of the Association of Global Automakers. "Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place has made U.S. auto exports uncompetitive and will eliminate our bilateral auto trade surplus.”

The impact of the trade war is likely to be felt in every corner of the auto industry, experts stress, even at the dealer level. The CAR study, for example, estimates as many as 117,000 employees at the country’s 17,000 new car dealerships could lose their jobs.

Though the Association of Global Automakers said it supports Trump’s efforts to resolve some nagging trade issues, Bozella said he is “concerned that escalating trade tensions will not produce the desired results.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/aut...m_npd_nn_tw_ma
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Old 09-23-2018, 05:49 PM   #46
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The $ to soybean growers was already in the farm program and was not an added new cost. That fact seems to be ignored by all the anti Trumpers....

Love this speculation statement of fact that "this will significantly hurt construction and ag" as if suddenly construction and ag will have to massively buy new stuff at higher prices. In the past, when has a price increase by a hard goods supplier caused significant hurt? You do understand depreciation and tax consequences of purchasing and that the price increase over the life of the implement is minimal....or maybe not.

The so called Trade War has yet to manifest itself in any substantial way other than get people to the table to fix a lot of broken shit.

You lib progs need to back off your constant warbling of dire consequences to everything ever.
Lol, so if lumber prices go up 40% as they have with the stupid softwood tariff, we can simply depreciate it away? Finished goods depreciation is one side of the story. That is only after the finished goods were manufactured at an already higher cost of goods sold.

When has a price increase by a hard good supplier caused significant hurt? Seriously. You understand that even a 1% cost increase to an input can lead to tens of millions to hundreds of millions in "hurt" right? I literally posted a link that spoke to dozens of executives talking specifically about the hurt their companies are going through. When Caterpillar reports $200M in cost increases, they can either eat the cost or raise prices. Either the business gets "taxed" (higher cost) or the consumer does (higher prices). It's not rocket science.
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Old 09-23-2018, 05:54 PM   #47
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I find it amusing that the leftists in our country are so pissed that Trump won they'd rather see America fail than Trump succeed.

We've been on the bad side of trade deals for decades. It seems that just about EVERYTHING I pick up has a "Made in China" label on it. I'm just glad we've finally got a president that is willing to do something about it. I work in the auto industry. Look how many of our "American" car makers have moved manufacturing to Mexico. Why did they do this? Because of loopholes in Nafta used to get around tarrifs with other nations. They import cheap parts and material into Mexico from other countries, build the cars there and import them here, skirting the tarrifs set in place with other non Nafta nations. Of course our goods were still being levied with Tarrifs going out to these countries. They've been using Nafta to skirt the system and it's about time we've got a president with the balls to do something about it.

We're trying to close the same loophole with Canada. Of course Canada is resisting because they've made a shit ton of money by exploiting this loophole. I don't blame them for resisting a new trade agreement. They stand to lose the goose that laid the golden egg, at our expense. What pisses me off are leftists in this country cheering them on. Including politicians who've had their pockets lined by this practice. They're holding out. Hoping they can out wait Trump. And some people in this country are cheering them on. Including our left wing puppet media. Disgusting.

Remember when Obama said "those manufacturing jobs aren't coming back"? They weren't coming back because our corrupt uni-party system didn't care about them coming back. Fix Nafta and balance out the trade agreements with China and you'll see just how wrong they are.
I don't care as much about the trade imbalance in China. It's such an overinflated term. Trade deficits occur when you have healthy trade. If Trump fixes our trade agreements and actually gets China to fix IP, ok... big win. But whatever "win" we get on those agreements... the longer we drag this out, the more the "benefit" of those agreements has to be not only a grand slam but a walk off grand slam in the world series.

The reason trade wars usually don't work is that to get an incremental improvement, you end up spending billions upon billions in "hurt" to make it happen. I'm all for fixing trade and if you support the trade war because you have incredibly high ambitions about what that will solve... that's one thing. But let's not kid ourselves about the body count it's left behind so far.
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Old 09-23-2018, 10:31 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
I don't care as much about the trade imbalance in China. It's such an overinflated term. Trade deficits occur when you have healthy trade. If Trump fixes our trade agreements and actually gets China to fix IP, ok... big win. But whatever "win" we get on those agreements... the longer we drag this out, the more the "benefit" of those agreements has to be not only a grand slam but a walk off grand slam in the world series.

The reason trade wars usually don't work is that to get an incremental improvement, you end up spending billions upon billions in "hurt" to make it happen. I'm all for fixing trade and if you support the trade war because you have incredibly high ambitions about what that will solve... that's one thing. But let's not kid ourselves about the body count it's left behind so far.
I'm more worried about the body count it's left behind over the last 40 years. Look at what's happened to our manufacturing base over that time. Don't act like the body count just started now.
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Old 09-23-2018, 11:47 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
I don't care as much about the trade imbalance in China. It's such an overinflated term. Trade deficits occur when you have healthy trade. If Trump fixes our trade agreements and actually gets China to fix IP, ok... big win. But whatever "win" we get on those agreements... the longer we drag this out, the more the "benefit" of those agreements has to be not only a grand slam but a walk off grand slam in the world series.

The reason trade wars usually don't work is that to get an incremental improvement, you end up spending billions upon billions in "hurt" to make it happen. I'm all for fixing trade and if you support the trade war because you have incredibly high ambitions about what that will solve... that's one thing. But let's not kid ourselves about the body count it's left behind so far.
That hurt only happens to shitty Americans. I by made in America when possible so I don't feel the sting of the rising cost of imported crap. If it cost us double for the bubble gum machine made in China crap because of tariffs, that's my fault for getting hooked on foreign sweat shop built crap to start with.

This trade wars myth is nonsense anyways. They will bow down to the American consumer. The foreigners need us to peddle their crap to, not the other way around. I'm pretty sure I can go without some made in China toy made with lead based crap. They need us, we don't need them
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Old 09-24-2018, 03:03 PM   #50
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That hurt only happens to shitty Americans. I by made in America when possible so I don't feel the sting of the rising cost of imported crap. If it cost us double for the bubble gum machine made in China crap because of tariffs, that's my fault for getting hooked on foreign sweat shop built crap to start with.

This trade wars myth is nonsense anyways. They will bow down to the American consumer. The foreigners need us to peddle their crap to, not the other way around. I'm pretty sure I can go without some made in China toy made with lead based crap. They need us, we don't need them
No, it doesn't hurt just shitty Americans. It hurts honest hard working laborers. All this bluster about protecting steel workers... Nevermind that only a few big steel producers benefited (and steel workers are pissed that the extra profits haven't trickled down... They're going on strike). The majority of non big steel producers and the huge % of finished goods manufacturers absorb higher costs. Higher consumer prices is one outcome. The other outcome is cutting production which therefore means slashing tons of labor...either because production costs are causing shortfalls or because demand slowed because of higher prices.

The trade war is built off a real problem but I don't think Trump understands the problem. The problem is truly about better trade agreements... Which seems counterintuitive to be going at multiple trade agreements unilaterally. It is also a problem of creating American labor, not just this narrow focus on trade deficits... That trade number is a false flag. Trade deficits are a sign of a strong dollar and deficits are often a sign of healthy trade.

If this trade war were about better trade agreements, IP, and job creation... Fine. Making it about closing the trade deficit is a red herring.
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Old 09-24-2018, 03:46 PM   #51
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Old 09-25-2018, 12:37 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
No, it doesn't hurt just shitty Americans. It hurts honest hard working laborers. All this bluster about protecting steel workers... Nevermind that only a few big steel producers benefited (and steel workers are pissed that the extra profits haven't trickled down... They're going on strike). The majority of non big steel producers and the huge % of finished goods manufacturers absorb higher costs. Higher consumer prices is one outcome. The other outcome is cutting production which therefore means slashing tons of labor...either because production costs are causing shortfalls or because demand slowed because of higher prices.

The trade war is built off a real problem but I don't think Trump understands the problem. The problem is truly about better trade agreements... Which seems counterintuitive to be going at multiple trade agreements unilaterally. It is also a problem of creating American labor, not just this narrow focus on trade deficits... That trade number is a false flag. Trade deficits are a sign of a strong dollar and deficits are often a sign of healthy trade.

If this trade war were about better trade agreements, IP, and job creation... Fine. Making it about closing the trade deficit is a red herring.
I am honest, hard working laborers. I am just Johnny Factoryworker if you have missed me posting that. But whether I dig ditches or am the president of the universe, it doesn't change the fact that if I buy American, the price of the goods I buy will not be affected by tariffs. That's the point I am trying to make. I'm not sure we are on the same page
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Old 09-25-2018, 12:44 AM   #53
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Lex is like the Alex Jones of the Trump economy.

We all just kinda point and laugh.
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Old 09-25-2018, 06:55 AM   #54
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I am honest, hard working laborers. I am just Johnny Factoryworker if you have missed me posting that. But whether I dig ditches or am the president of the universe, it doesn't change the fact that if I buy American, the price of the goods I buy will not be affected by tariffs. That's the point I am trying to make. I'm not sure we are on the same page
The prices will change for you. Like I said, when costs rise a company has primarily two choices or a combo of the two. Raise prices or reduce cost, since absorbing the cost is not ideal and trying to make more revenue than less is unrealistic. There's a reason people consider this to be a consumer tax.
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Old 09-25-2018, 07:28 AM   #55
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The prices will change for you. Like I said, when costs rise a company has primarily two choices or a combo of the two. Raise prices or reduce cost, since absorbing the cost is not ideal and trying to make more revenue than less is unrealistic. There's a reason people consider this to be a consumer tax.
Great to see you finally coming around on why the corporate tax cuts were so important... Higher taxes mean raising prices or reducing labor cost...
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Old 09-25-2018, 07:38 AM   #56
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I've already posted numerous statistics and multiple graphs that demonstrate what a shit economy Bush turned over to Obama, and what a robust economy Trump inherited from Obama. It's pointless to keep doing it over and over, because you are either unwilling to learn or incapable of learning (most likely both).

However, I will go ahead and say for about the 20th time that I no longer call myself a moderate.

I'm a liberal, and I'm damn proud of it. So, attempting to mock me with the whole "moderate" shtick is very ineffective.
60+ year old man goes through a David Brock conversion? What went wrong in your life, Lex?
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Old 09-25-2018, 08:11 AM   #57
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60+ year old man goes through a David Brock conversion? What went wrong in your life, Lex?
Lex thinks that 1.5% growth in 2016 was awesome!
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Old 09-25-2018, 09:29 AM   #58
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Just received an email this morning from one of my wheel manufactures. Aluminum rims and center caps have been added to the list of products subject to increased tariffs.

As of yesterday, there's a 10% increase. That will increase to 25% by Jan 1st, 2019.
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:18 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
The prices will change for you. Like I said, when costs rise a company has primarily two choices or a combo of the two. Raise prices or reduce cost, since absorbing the cost is not ideal and trying to make more revenue than less is unrealistic. There's a reason people consider this to be a consumer tax.
Why would the cost of American made goods rise because of tariffs? Are we tariffing ourselves?
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:19 AM   #60
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Just received an email this morning from one of my wheel manufactures. Aluminum rims and center caps have been added to the list of products subject to increased tariffs.

As of yesterday, there's a 10% increase. That will increase to 25% by Jan 1st, 2019.
Is your supplier an American company using domestic material?
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