5 games out: Direckshun's Projeckshuns

[Direckshun]

How I project the rest of the season working out:

1. Pats, Donks, Colts get slots 1-3, in order.

2. Here's how the top wild card contenders fare:

Dolphins (6-5):

@ Jets W
vs. Baltimore W
@ NE L
vs. Vikings W
vs. Jets W

Dolphins end up 10-6.

Browns (7-4):

@ Bills W
vs. Colts L
vs. Bengals W
@ Panthers W
@ Ravens L

Browns end up 10-6.

Steelers (7-4):

vs. Saints W
@ Cincy L
@ Falcons W
vs. Chiefs W
vs. Bengals W

Steelers end up 11-5.

Ravens (6-4):

@ Saints [tonight] W
vs. Chargers W
@ Dolphins L
vs. Jags W
@ Texans W
vs. Browns W

Ravens end up 11-5.

Bengals (7-3-1):

@ Bucs W
vs. Steelers W
@ Browns L
vs. Broncos L
@ Steelers L

Bengals end up 9-6-1.

Chiefs (7-4):

vs. Broncos L
@ Arizona W
vs. Oakland W
@ Steelers L
vs. Chargers W

Chiefs end up 10-6.

Chargers (7-4):

@ Ravens L
vs. Patriots L
vs. Broncos L
@ 49ers L
@ Chiefs L

Chargers end up 7-9.

3. Steelers get the tiebreaker over the Ravens (projected 3-3 divisional record to Baltimore's projected 2-4) and take the #4 slot. Ravens take #5 and will visit Pittsburgh.

4. As for the remaining three 10-6 teams vying for the #6 slot:

Dolphins 10-6
Browns 10-6
Chiefs 10-6

Oddly enough, the fact that the Chiefs beat the Dolphins (and that the Dolphins beat the Browns) doesn't matter. The only time head-to-head counts when it's a three way tie is if the team in question has beaten (or lost to) each of the other team. But the Chiefs and Browns didn't play, and the Dolphins went 1-1.

The next tie-breaker is AFC conference record:

Dolphins: 8-4
Chiefs: 7-5
Browns: 6-6

The Dolphins get the #6 slot and will visit Indy.

The Chiefs and Browns miss the playoffs.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

I'm trying to figure out when it became 'cool' to troll and be negative about everything.

Since the beginning of time.

There's a little troll in all of us.

[Hoover]

I think everyone is a little too high on the Dolphins right now. They could lose all of those games to be honest.

[Mr. Arrowhead]

what if we beat Denver and lose to Arizona, which would make our conference record 8-4 and tied with Miami? What happens then?

[ThaVirus]

The Dolphins are looking very good lately. They're playing their best ball.

The AFC North is a crap shoot. No one has any clue which team will win that division. It's actually incredible how tight things are in that division this far into the season. The Browns went from first to worst with a loss just last week.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

The Dolphins are looking very good lately. They're playing their best ball.

And yet they're 6-5.

They're not going anywhere.

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

The AFC North is a crap shoot. No one has any clue which team will win that division. It's actually incredible how tight things are in that division this far into the season. The Browns went from first to worst with a loss just last week.

Cleveland's record is a mirage. Cincy seems to have turned it around, Pittsburgh is schizophrenic and Baltimore just isn't good enough. These teams face each other in the final month of the season and they're not all going to finish 10-6 or better.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Mr. Arrowhead

what if we beat Denver and lose to Arizona, which would make our conference record 8-4 and tied with Miami? What happens then?

Arizona is ridiculously overrated. Drew Henson is not Carson Palmer and their defense, which has played well, is starting to show cracks.

It's going to take a Raiders/Titans like effort from the Chiefs to lose at Arizona.

[Mile High Mania]

I can see the Steelers going 4-2, not 5-1.

Dolphins will not go 4-1 either.

The Chargers 0-5, yeah that wouldn't shock me, but more like 2-3.

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by scho63

I don't know if I have ever seen ANYONE create more threads than Direckshun about hypotheticals, guesstimations, and what if scenarios.

You must be an engineer or statistician by trade or by desire because they slice and dice numbers to such mental masturbation it's mind numbing.

Welcome to CP....

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Arizona is ridiculously overrated. Drew Henson is not Carson Palmer and their defense, which has played well, is starting to show cracks.

It's going to take a Raiders/Titans like effort from the Chiefs to lose at Arizona.

Stanton. Drew Stanton.

Drew Henson is selling insurance in Ann Arbor.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Arizona is ridiculously overrated. Drew Henson is not Carson Palmer and their defense, which has played well, is starting to show cracks.

It's going to take a Raiders/Titans like effort from the Chiefs to lose at Arizona.

Drew Stanton is ok, though.

[BlackOp]

Cleveland isnt going 10-6

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Mr. Arrowhead

what if we beat Denver and lose to Arizona, which would make our conference record 8-4 and tied with Miami? What happens then?

Strength of schedule I believe.

I'd have to think we'd win that one, but I could be wrong.

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Arizona is ridiculously overrated. Drew Henson is not Carson Palmer and their defense, which has played well, is starting to show cracks.

It's going to take a Raiders/Titans like effort from the Chiefs to lose at Arizona.

You mean we would have to Reid the Bed to lose to the Cards?

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Stanton. Drew Stanton.

Drew Henson is selling insurance in Ann Arbor.

Same guy to me.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by SNR

Strength of schedule I believe.

I'd have to think we'd win that one, but I could be wrong.

If tied solely with Miami, Chiefs take it on head-to-head.

Three way tie for WC with teams from three different divisions, first tiebreak applied is head-to-head sweep (Team A beats B and C), second is conference record, third is best win percentage in common games with a minimum of four.