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Old 10-20-2015, 07:49 AM  
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Investing....What about Steel Stocks ?
I took a load of scrap metal to the salvage yard and nearly had to pay them to take it. I remember several years ago people everywhere were dragging trailers loaded to the hilt with steel to the yards making good money scavenging. So I thought I'd investigate a little.

US steel (x) is selling for around $12 / share right now

Less than 12 months ago it was near $50

In 2008 it was $196

Right now it is at a 10 year low.

I'm reading that China is the major producer and supplier but their economy is faltering and the steel companies are in danger of going belly up. When this happens we should see prices move up.

Thinking about throwing 5 at it but don't want to wait for a Chiefs SB win to make a profit.

Thoughts ?
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Old 10-20-2015, 07:50 AM   #2
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Old 10-20-2015, 07:51 AM   #3
ptlyon ptlyon is offline
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For what Pittsburgh is going to do to us this weekend, it would be smart to invest in steel.
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Old 10-20-2015, 07:52 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog Farmer View Post
I took a load of scrap metal to the salvage yard and nearly had to pay them to take it. I remember several years ago people everywhere were dragging trailers loaded to the hilt with steel to the yards making good money scavenging. So I thought I'd investigate a little.

US steel (x) is selling for around $12 / share right now

Less than 12 months ago it was near $50

In 2008 it was $196

Right now it is at a 10 year low.

I'm reading that China is the major producer and supplier but their economy is faltering and the steel companies are in danger of going belly up. When this happens we should see prices move up.

Thinking about throwing 5 at it but don't want to wait for a Chiefs SB win to make a profit.

Thoughts ?
I have a company that does a lot of business in the steel industry. I wouldn't touch a steel industry stock right now - and certainly not USS. The steel industry is going to be in the shitter for another 12-18 months. I'd hold off.
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Old 10-20-2015, 07:52 AM   #5
Simply Red Simply Red is offline
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Originally Posted by ptlyon View Post
For what Pittsburgh is going to do to us this weekend, it would be smart to invest in steel.
Thanks for letting me know who we play - I truly didn't even know.
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Old 10-20-2015, 07:56 AM   #6
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Old 10-20-2015, 07:59 AM   #7
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTown View Post
I have a company that does a lot of business in the steel industry. I wouldn't touch a steel industry stock right now - and certainly not USS. The steel industry is going to be in the shitter for another 12-18 months. I'd hold off.
In March, Murray Gerber (director of US Steel) bought 7800 shares at 16.88

Now its at 12.00

Any thoughts how much lower you think it might go. I'm reading it won't go any lower or just mostly sideways but agree with the next 12 months.

Seems like every time I see an opportunity and wait then I wake up after it's too late.
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Old 10-20-2015, 08:00 AM   #8
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Chinese companies are all state controlled. They don't go "belly up".
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Old 10-20-2015, 08:05 AM   #9
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Possible Game-Changers
As mentioned before, a very high-profile overture by the Chinese government to shore up its vast network of steel mills could keep cheap steel flowing throughout most of the world. An effort from the U.S. government to bring more parity to North American prices and the rest of the globe, meanwhile, would change the price equation considerably.

“The only way steel prices can come down markedly here is if North America starts equalizing with international prices,” Anton said. “But it hasn’t done so in four to five years and I don’t see a big push for it to do so next year. And if bankruptcies don’t happen in China and the government bails out their steel mills, that means prices stay very low at least until mid-year and if the Europeans fail, prices will rise. If China doesn’t bail out the steel mills, they start going bankrupt this year and early next year and prices go up
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Old 10-20-2015, 08:12 AM   #10
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A year ago I got .39 cents a pound for a truckload of scrap I wanted to get rid of. A few weeks back I got .03 cents a pound for the same truckload.

It was hardly worth the gas to take it up there, but still cheaper than having the trash haulers take it.

I wouldn't buy any stocks at this time in this industry unless you want to wait ten years for it to rebound.
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Old 10-20-2015, 08:31 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTown View Post
I have a company that does a lot of business in the steel industry. I wouldn't touch a steel industry stock right now - and certainly not USS. The steel industry is going to be in the shitter for another 12-18 months. I'd hold off.
This is exactly when you buy. I may buy some and I don't have any stocks at all. I buy on bad news because bad news generally fades. Look at the fundamentals. If the company is solid not teetering on bankruptcy then start buying.
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Old 10-20-2015, 08:40 AM   #12
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I have been cleaning out my parents house. The metal that we find is not worth the trip to the junkyard. There was a lot. pans, shelves, random crap. We were told 60.00 a ton.
So most of it went in the garbage-land fill. I feel bad, but the dumpster was more cost effective with everything else we had to dump. (BTW 50 cu yards of stuff from my parents house)

Two years ago-at the farm equipment auction-guys were in a bidding war for scrap metal. Batteries, milk cans, old iron, barn tin.

Heard China was making metal and selling it as scrap.
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Old 10-20-2015, 08:48 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTown View Post
I have a company that does a lot of business in the steel industry. I wouldn't touch a steel industry stock right now - and certainly not USS. The steel industry is going to be in the shitter for another 12-18 months. I'd hold off.
Now is the time to buy. Forget this advice. I may research and buy some. I like to buy down stocks for a 3-5 year hold.
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Old 10-20-2015, 08:59 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog Farmer View Post
I took a load of scrap metal to the salvage yard and nearly had to pay them to take it. I remember several years ago people everywhere were dragging trailers loaded to the hilt with steel to the yards making good money scavenging. So I thought I'd investigate a little.

US steel (x) is selling for around $12 / share right now

Less than 12 months ago it was near $50

In 2008 it was $196

Right now it is at a 10 year low.

I'm reading that China is the major producer and supplier but their economy is faltering and the steel companies are in danger of going belly up. When this happens we should see prices move up.

Thinking about throwing 5 at it but don't want to wait for a Chiefs SB win to make a profit.

Thoughts ?
sounds like a steal
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Old 10-20-2015, 09:05 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
Now is the time to buy. Forget this advice. I may research and buy some. I like to buy down stocks for a 3-5 year hold.
It's going lower - that's the point. Hold off.
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