Pro Football Reference's simple rating system and the 2012 Chiefs

[Hammock Parties]

Read this post slowly and carefully. Do not skip to the end. You need to fully comprehend the content of this post to appreciate the impact of the message.

The SRS on PFR is a great tool to compare teams historically beyond W-L record. A definition:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=538

To refresh your memory, it’s a system that’s been around forever and is extremely basic compared some of the other power rating systems out there. But I like it because it’s easy to understand.

An average team will have a rating of zero. An above average team will have a positive rating while a below average team will have a negative rating.

Every team will have a rating that is the equal to their average point margin plus the average of their opponent’s ratings, so the teams’ ratings are all interdependent.

The Colts’ rating depends upon the ratings of all their opponents, which depends upon the ratings of all their opponents (some of which are the Colts), and so on.

Let's take a look at some SRS for good Chiefs teams.



1968 +14.0
1969 +11.9

1997 +8.4
2003 +8.3


Let's take a look at some SRS for bad Chiefs teams.




2008 -9.2
1988 -5.7
1977 -4.9


Let's take a look at some SRS for bad teams throughout NFL history.

This is the SRS rating for the worst teams these franchises have fielded. Any franchise that did not hit close to -15 or worse was excluded.




2000 Cardinals -15.2
1966 Falcons -15.5
2000 Browns -14.6
1960 Cowboys -14.8
2009 Lions -14.4
1950 Packers -18.2
1991 Colts -17.3
2012 Jaguars -15.5
1972 Patriots -17.4
1966 Giants -16.8
1965 Steelers -18.3
1976 Seahawks -15.1
2009 Rams -17.4
1976 Oilers -16.8


You may have noticed I left out all of Scott Pioli's Chiefs teams.

Let's take a look at those juggernauts!



2009 -8.4
2010 -0.7
2011 -8.1


Ouch. Even when Pioli fielded a winning team, it had a negative rating. Overrated team? Yes.


We're about to get to the 2012 Chiefs. Hang tight.


Are you ready for this, Scott?



YOU'RE NOT GONNA LIKE THIS, PIOLI.



GET READY TO BURN, YOU FRAUD!!!!





The Three Worst Teams In NFL History.


T-1. 1976 Bucs -19.7

T-1. 1954 Redskins -19.7

2. 2012 Kansas City Chiefs -18.4


Hang tight, boys. Eight games left. We can still field...

The Worst Team In NFL History.

[stonedstooge]

Not worried. Romeo's got this. That "Play Good Football" sign will turn it around

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Cassel just bought a Papa John's Franchise

[TEX]

Did you take into account there are less paper wrappers around Arrowhead?

[notorious]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I love football and I love the Kansas City Chiefs. But I'm at the point where I WISH to all that is Holy that I could quit. I would love nothing more at this point than to not care about this team anymore and move on.

That is EXACTLY what they hope will happen to most of us.


Think about it: AFC WEST


Oakland : West Coast
San Diego : West Coast
Denver : West
L.A. : West Coast

/removes tinfoilhat

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by PGM

Cassel just bought a Papa John's Franchise

That's the ONLY way he'll be mentioned in the same sentence with Peyton Manning...

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by stonedstooge

Not worried. Romeo's got this. That "Play Good Football" sign will turn it around

The thing I like about that sign is that it's so inspiring. It really makes you stop and think, and then you say to yourself, "Hey, that sign is right. I really should play good football."

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I think it's time to step up the game.

Here's the bottom line for me:

It's not just that they're losing. It's not JUST that they're HISTORICALLY inept.

It's that they're also "my shit don't stink" assholes that treat the fans like sheep and their Patriot Way buddies like kings.

I love football and I love the Kansas City Chiefs. But I'm at the point where I WISH to all that is Holy that I could quit. I would love nothing more at this point than to not care about this team anymore and move on.

Odd...

I don't think I've ever cared more about the team.

I don't think I've ever been as passionate about the team.

I know that change, massive change, change for the better is coming. Coming on like an unyielding torrent of freedom and liberty.

This is our French Revolution. This is our knocking down of the Berlin Wall. This is our watching George W Bush and Dick Cheney walk out of the White House knowing that they could never return.

Change is coming. A new era of the Chiefs begins soon.

A new, first round QB. The first in 30 years.

A new, competent GM.

A new, competent coaching staff.

The sins of the past are about to be washed away my friends.

This is the beginning of the new glory years for the Chiefs, and we can say that we were there when it all began!

Viva la Revolution! Viva la Chiefs!

[L.A. Chieffan]

'54 Skins were a bunch of pussies

[Bowser]

Look at Saccopoop, finding the silver lining. Lots of truth to his post.

For me, this year has turned into pure fascination. I'm enthralled to watch at this point. I've never seen such shitty pro football played in my entire life (or at least from when I started really paying attention, circa 1990), especially from a Chiefs team. Gunther had a decent team and a kinda bad team. Herm had bad teams. What we are watching now just totally sets a new bar for the term "awful".

Pure fascination. Let's see how far down this sinkhole drops.

[bobbything]

If I understand this rating system correctly, we take our average margin of victory/loss and add it to our opponents average margin. Thus, it means that we are -X points below the average for ourselves. Added to that, our opponents are (most likely) in the negative as well?

Jesus Christ, this is bad.

[gta0012]

Need ownership that cares.

[bevischief]

JFC

[Rain Man]

I attribute this to the Rodney Hudson injury. He'll be fine next year and we'll be back.

[bobbything]

Just looked it up. Our margin of loss is -13.4 points per game. Our opponents is -4.7. Looking ahead, our opponents have an average of -5.7 left (obviously, that will change somewhat). However, if things remain consistent, to stay in 2nd place, we just need to keep our own point differential average at -12.7 (a little bit higher than what we're currently at).

If we want to overtake 1st place, we need to make the point differential average -14.1.

This is definitely doable.

Edit: Sorry, my math was off. We need to average -14.1, not -13.67...I think. I'm not that good at this.

Edit Edit: Dammit, this is wrong too. Basically, we need to average (over 16 game) -14.6 points to break the record. We're at -13.4 now. Need to increase our losing margin by 1.2 points per game.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by bobbything

Just looked it up. Our margin of loss is -13.4 points per game. Our opponents is -4.7. Looking ahead, our opponents have an average of -5.7 left (obviously, that will change somewhat). However, if things remain consistent, to stay in 2nd place, we just need to keep our own point differential average at -12.7 (a little bit higher than what we're currently at).

If we want to overtake 1st place, we need to make the point differential average -13.67.

This is definitely doable.

If you're going to be bad, you might as well go for the record. It gives you a place in history. No one remembers the team that came in second-to-worst.