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Old 09-22-2018, 02:28 PM  
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Tariffs could mean a 2M drop in car sales and cost 715,000 jobs

This is what happens when you start a trade war. Trump thinks trade wars are good, and they're easy to win.

He's wrong.

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Tariffs could mean a 2M drop in car sales and cost 715,000 jobs, warns auto industry group

"Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place has made U.S. auto exports uncompetitive,” said one industry insider.

The impact of President Donald Trump's escalating tit-for-tat over tariffs is already being felt, say auto industry experts. New car prices are beginning to rise, and auto exports are dropping. But a new report warns that sales could plunge by as much as 2 million vehicles a year, resulting in the loss of up to 715,000 American jobs and a hit of as much as $62 billion to the U.S. GDP.

The Center for Automotive Research cites the biggest concern as the threatened use of trade rules known as Section 232 that would declare foreign-made cars and car parts a threat to national security. That could trigger a “downward cycle” in an auto industry already showing signs of decline after rebounding from the Great Recession, said Kristin Dziczek, a vice president and senior economist at the Center for Automotive Research, or CAR, in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

CAR’s new study is echoed by a variety of other studies looking at the potential impact of the Trump administration’s escalating trade war.

Already enacted tariffs on imported aluminum and steel have added about $240 to the cost of producing a new car, truck, or crossover in the U.S., noted Peter Nagle, a senior economist with research firm IHS Markit. And the first round of tariffs with China is adding still more to the price that manufacturers have to pay for a variety of parts used on American assembly lines.

The impact will grow as a result of the second round of China tariffs, Nagle added, cautioning that a “dizzying” series of trade moves will “exacerbate” the problems the auto industry faces as it struggles to head off the first downturn in sales since emerging from the depths of the last recession. Activating tariffs using Section 232 rules would likely prove devastating, he warned.

Nagel estimated consumers would be “looking at price increases of $1,300 for a typical mass market product, up to $5,800 for a luxury vehicle.” Those increases would not be limited to just imported vehicles. Toyota, for example, has forecast the price of a U.S.-made Camry would rise about $1,600.

In line with the new CAR study, IHS forecasts U.S. new vehicle sales would plunge by around 2 million vehicles annually, to 16.5 million a year from 2019 to 2025.

Add the possible tear-up of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the impact could be devastating. Under NAFTA, automakers have established a continent-wide network of parts and vehicle assembly operations. That’s backed up by a global production system that has been finely tuned, with little room for disruption. But industry experts warn that the Trump administration’s trade moves threaten to fracture that grid.

The impact could mean more than just higher costs. A number of medium-sized and smaller parts suppliers could be forced out of business, unable to afford the cost of relocating their operations back to the U.S. That could result in disruptions at assembly plants, said Nagle, possibly meaning shortages of some products, and a big hit to automakers’ profits.

With auto sales already declining, manufacturers have been struggling to minimize the impact on consumers from tariff-related cost increases. But, at some point, they will have to pass them on, resulting in higher sticker prices. But consumers are already struggling to deal with their car payments, driven up as the cost of the typical vehicle sold in the U.S. approaches $35,000. Vehicle loans are being stretched out to record levels, with 60, 72 and even 84-month financing becoming more the norm than the exception.

But trade is a two-way street, and the U.S. is already beginning to feel the impact in terms of auto exports. Ironically, shortly before the Trump administration enacted the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods, that country announced plans to reduce its own duties on imported vehicles from 25 percent to 15 percent. Now, however, U.S.-made vehicles are subject to 40 percent tariffs, making them even less competitive with auto imports from Europe or Japan, as well as vehicles made in China.

BMW, the largest exporter of American-made vehicles to China, says it is looking for ways to maintain demand for the X5 utility vehicles produced in South Carolina, perhaps boosting sales in the U.S. or Europe. But Ford has already announced plans to cut production of the Mustang and other vehicles shipped to China.

The escalating trade war with China “will further harm the U.S. auto industry and American workers and consumers," said John Bozzella, CEO of the Association of Global Automakers. "Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place has made U.S. auto exports uncompetitive and will eliminate our bilateral auto trade surplus.”

The impact of the trade war is likely to be felt in every corner of the auto industry, experts stress, even at the dealer level. The CAR study, for example, estimates as many as 117,000 employees at the country’s 17,000 new car dealerships could lose their jobs.

Though the Association of Global Automakers said it supports Trump’s efforts to resolve some nagging trade issues, Bozella said he is “concerned that escalating trade tensions will not produce the desired results.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/aut...m_npd_nn_tw_ma
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:22 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Over Yonder View Post
Is your supplier an American company using domestic material?
Why do you ask? Tariffs impact the entire marketplace, not just the foreign products that they directly tax.
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:25 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Why do you ask? Tariffs impact the entire marketplace, not just the foreign products that they directly tax.
I'm trying to understand how. If anything, it gives American companies an advantage unless I am missing something here. And I honestly could be I guess.
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:38 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by Over Yonder View Post
I'm trying to understand how. If anything, it gives American companies an advantage unless I am missing something here. And I honestly could be I guess.
Competition keeps prices down. Tariffs reduce the competitiveness of foreign products. It's certainly possible to apply a big enough tariff to raise foreign product prices above those of domestic alternatives, but prices on the consumer are still going to go up (albeit not by the full amount of the tariff) and pressure on the domestic producer to keep prices down is going to be reduced.
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:53 AM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Competition keeps prices down. Tariffs reduce the competitiveness of foreign products. It's certainly possible to apply a big enough tariff to raise foreign product prices above those of domestic alternatives, but prices on the consumer are still going to go up (albeit not by the full amount of the tariff) and pressure on the domestic producer to keep prices down is going to be reduced.
I guess I can understand that. But it doesn't apply to me. I buy American anytime it's available regardless of cost(well, within reason of course). And why does the competition have to be foreign? Why can't we actually have a few American companies competing for our dollars?

As a conservative, I dislike greatly the government sticking it's fingers where they don't belong. But, we all know the snakes are gonna do it anyway, so they just as well be rigging the game to favor America. I say raise tariffs through the roof, force these companies to either bring the jobs back or go out of business. I'n not too concerned about paying a few cents more for my widget in the short term.

I know many disagree with me, but it is where I stand.
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Old 09-25-2018, 11:24 AM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Over Yonder View Post
I guess I can understand that. But it doesn't apply to me. I buy American anytime it's available regardless of cost(well, within reason of course). And why does the competition have to be foreign? Why can't we actually have a few American companies competing for our dollars?

As a conservative, I dislike greatly the government sticking it's fingers where they don't belong. But, we all know the snakes are gonna do it anyway, so they just as well be rigging the game to favor America. I say raise tariffs through the roof, force these companies to either bring the jobs back or go out of business. I'n not too concerned about paying a few cents more for my widget in the short term.

I know many disagree with me, but it is where I stand.
Yeah, I disagree with you. Protectionism of the type you're describing hurts all Americans to help a few and I'm not on board with that.
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Old 09-25-2018, 11:43 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Yeah, I disagree with you. Protectionism of the type you're describing hurts all Americans to help a few and I'm not on board with that.
You're still falling for the myth, I see.
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Old 09-25-2018, 11:50 AM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Over Yonder View Post
Is your supplier an American company using domestic material?
They are an American company, yes. No idea where they get their materials.
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Old 09-25-2018, 11:57 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
You're still falling for the myth, I see.
It's reality and it's a different issue than that of combating the unfair trade practices and protectionism of other countries.
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Old 09-25-2018, 11:59 AM   #69
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It's reality and it's a different issue than that of combating the unfair trade practices and protectionism of other countries.
It's not reality, it's nothing but myth, and the protectionism of the Japanese (back in the day) and the Chinese (today), among so many others throughout history, seems to have worked out pretty well.
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Old 09-25-2018, 12:00 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
It's reality and it's a different issue than that of combating the unfair trade practices and protectionism of other countries.
Tariffs are currently the leverage we need for a final resolution of truly free trade deals. We used to be the world's exporter in the 70's and prior years and we had no leverage, however, today we are the world's economic engine and biggest importer, and have all the leverage. Some short term pain for long term health of truly free and fair trade is a good compromise.
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Old 09-25-2018, 12:04 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief View Post
Tariffs are currently the leverage we need for a final resolution of truly free Trade deals. We used to be the world's exporter in the 70's and prior years and we had no leverage, however, we are the world's economic engine and biggest importer, we have all the leverage. Some short term pain for long term health of truly free and fair trade is a good compromise.
That's the way I see things. Although I will admit I have no use for foreign built stuff so the rest of it don't apply to me. I'm all about exporting, not so much importing.
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Old 09-25-2018, 12:04 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
It's not reality, it's nothing but myth, and the protectionism of the Japanese (back in the day) and the Chinese (today), among so many others throughout history, seems to have worked out pretty well.
As I said, that's a different issue.
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Old 09-26-2018, 02:46 PM   #73
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Ford CEO Says Trump Metals Tariffs Took $1 Billion of Profit

Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Jim Hackett encouraged the Trump administration to resolve trade disputes quickly or it could do “more damage” to his company, which is already suffering losses from tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.

“The metals tariffs took about $1 billion in profit from us -- and the irony is we source most of that in the U.S. today anyways,” Hackett said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “If it goes on longer, there will be more damage.”

[...]
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Old 09-26-2018, 02:49 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Over Yonder View Post
Why would the cost of American made goods rise because of tariffs? Are we tariffing ourselves?
American manufacturers import a shitload of raw materials in order to manufacture their products. That's why steel tariffs make American-made cars more expensive.
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Old 09-26-2018, 03:33 PM   #75
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