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Old 09-22-2018, 02:28 PM  
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Tariffs could mean a 2M drop in car sales and cost 715,000 jobs

This is what happens when you start a trade war. Trump thinks trade wars are good, and they're easy to win.

He's wrong.

Quote:
Tariffs could mean a 2M drop in car sales and cost 715,000 jobs, warns auto industry group

"Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place has made U.S. auto exports uncompetitive,” said one industry insider.

The impact of President Donald Trump's escalating tit-for-tat over tariffs is already being felt, say auto industry experts. New car prices are beginning to rise, and auto exports are dropping. But a new report warns that sales could plunge by as much as 2 million vehicles a year, resulting in the loss of up to 715,000 American jobs and a hit of as much as $62 billion to the U.S. GDP.

The Center for Automotive Research cites the biggest concern as the threatened use of trade rules known as Section 232 that would declare foreign-made cars and car parts a threat to national security. That could trigger a “downward cycle” in an auto industry already showing signs of decline after rebounding from the Great Recession, said Kristin Dziczek, a vice president and senior economist at the Center for Automotive Research, or CAR, in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

CAR’s new study is echoed by a variety of other studies looking at the potential impact of the Trump administration’s escalating trade war.

Already enacted tariffs on imported aluminum and steel have added about $240 to the cost of producing a new car, truck, or crossover in the U.S., noted Peter Nagle, a senior economist with research firm IHS Markit. And the first round of tariffs with China is adding still more to the price that manufacturers have to pay for a variety of parts used on American assembly lines.

The impact will grow as a result of the second round of China tariffs, Nagle added, cautioning that a “dizzying” series of trade moves will “exacerbate” the problems the auto industry faces as it struggles to head off the first downturn in sales since emerging from the depths of the last recession. Activating tariffs using Section 232 rules would likely prove devastating, he warned.

Nagel estimated consumers would be “looking at price increases of $1,300 for a typical mass market product, up to $5,800 for a luxury vehicle.” Those increases would not be limited to just imported vehicles. Toyota, for example, has forecast the price of a U.S.-made Camry would rise about $1,600.

In line with the new CAR study, IHS forecasts U.S. new vehicle sales would plunge by around 2 million vehicles annually, to 16.5 million a year from 2019 to 2025.

Add the possible tear-up of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the impact could be devastating. Under NAFTA, automakers have established a continent-wide network of parts and vehicle assembly operations. That’s backed up by a global production system that has been finely tuned, with little room for disruption. But industry experts warn that the Trump administration’s trade moves threaten to fracture that grid.

The impact could mean more than just higher costs. A number of medium-sized and smaller parts suppliers could be forced out of business, unable to afford the cost of relocating their operations back to the U.S. That could result in disruptions at assembly plants, said Nagle, possibly meaning shortages of some products, and a big hit to automakers’ profits.

With auto sales already declining, manufacturers have been struggling to minimize the impact on consumers from tariff-related cost increases. But, at some point, they will have to pass them on, resulting in higher sticker prices. But consumers are already struggling to deal with their car payments, driven up as the cost of the typical vehicle sold in the U.S. approaches $35,000. Vehicle loans are being stretched out to record levels, with 60, 72 and even 84-month financing becoming more the norm than the exception.

But trade is a two-way street, and the U.S. is already beginning to feel the impact in terms of auto exports. Ironically, shortly before the Trump administration enacted the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods, that country announced plans to reduce its own duties on imported vehicles from 25 percent to 15 percent. Now, however, U.S.-made vehicles are subject to 40 percent tariffs, making them even less competitive with auto imports from Europe or Japan, as well as vehicles made in China.

BMW, the largest exporter of American-made vehicles to China, says it is looking for ways to maintain demand for the X5 utility vehicles produced in South Carolina, perhaps boosting sales in the U.S. or Europe. But Ford has already announced plans to cut production of the Mustang and other vehicles shipped to China.

The escalating trade war with China “will further harm the U.S. auto industry and American workers and consumers," said John Bozzella, CEO of the Association of Global Automakers. "Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place has made U.S. auto exports uncompetitive and will eliminate our bilateral auto trade surplus.”

The impact of the trade war is likely to be felt in every corner of the auto industry, experts stress, even at the dealer level. The CAR study, for example, estimates as many as 117,000 employees at the country’s 17,000 new car dealerships could lose their jobs.

Though the Association of Global Automakers said it supports Trump’s efforts to resolve some nagging trade issues, Bozella said he is “concerned that escalating trade tensions will not produce the desired results.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/aut...m_npd_nn_tw_ma
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:43 PM   #31
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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Beto O'Rourke

Did you use him to bolster your argument?
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:46 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Oh great.

Another headline that pretends to know the future.

The minute I see “could” or “may” or a question mark in a headline I move on and weep for the media.

Since 90% of people don’t actually read beyond the Twitter/Facebook headline they all are couched in speculative rhetoric.

There are Marvel fan sites with more journalistic integrity.
You have to realize this thread was started by someone that knows nothing about the economy.
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:47 PM   #33
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Economists agree: Trump, not Obama, gets credit for economy
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...it-for-economy
I provide facts, you provide a poll that you cherry picked to support your position. Plenty of economists and plenty of polls agree with me.

Here's just one:

Quote:
Fact check: Did Trump pull off an 'economic turnaround?'

"The Economy is soooo good, perhaps the best in our country’s history," Trump said on Twitter on Monday.

Two presidents boasted about the strength of the American economy this weekend, each claiming credit for the steady growth and declining unemployment as President Donald Trump seeks to parlay the nation's economic success into a winning midterm message for his embattled party — and former President Barack Obama reminds voters just when the boom began.

"When you hear how great the economy's doing right now, let's just remember when this recovery started,” Obama said on Friday in a speech that marked his first foray into the upcoming elections. "I mean, I'm glad it's continued, but when you hear about this economic miracle that's been going on, when the job numbers come out, monthly job numbers, suddenly Republicans are saying it's a miracle. I have to kind of remind them, actually, those job numbers are the same as they were in 2015 and 2016."

Trump disparaged the speech, at one point saying he fell asleep during it.

“If the Democrats got in with their agenda in November of almost two years ago, instead of having 4.2 up, I believe honestly you'd have 4.2 down,” Trump said Friday night, speaking of GDP growth. “It was the weakest recovery in the history of our country since, I guess, to be totally specific, because I'm not sure they've gone any further, since the Great Depression.”

“The Economy is soooo good, perhaps the best in our country’s history,” Trump wrote on Twitter on Monday.

Earlier this summer, he stood on the South Lawn of the White House and boasted about achieving a "turnaround of historic proportions" — an "economic miracle."


Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
The Economy is soooo good, perhaps the best in our country’s history (remember, it’s the economy stupid!), that the Democrats are flailing & lying like CRAZY! Phony books, articles and T.V. “hits” like no other pol has had to endure-and they are losing big. Very dishonest people!

The economy's success or failure depends on much more than who sits in the Oval Office, but let's take a look at the facts here.

WAS THE ECONOMY STRUGGLING WHEN TRUMP TOOK OFFICE?

Absolutely not. Trump inherited a booming economy with low unemployment and steady job growth — an easy win on day one — and he quickly claimed credit. Early in his presidency, Trump boasted about job gains starting from his election onward, crediting Obama's final months as his own.

It is extremely unlikely that the GDP could ever have been negative 4.2 percent no matter who was elected in 2016. At the height of the 2009 recession, GDP was at -2.5 percent. It has not been at or above -4.2 percent in 86 years.

The economy was, however, struggling when Obama took office in 2009. He inherited a dismal economy in the middle of a recession that lasted 18 months, facing what many feared would be a depression, and was able to turn it around in the first years of his presidency. The U.S. is now its 10th year of economic growth, and in its longest period of growth with 95 straight months of job creation. The bulk of that decade of growth was under Obama’s presidency, and can fairly be credited to him.

Still, as Trump accurately points out, the recovery under Obama was marked by a slower rate of growth than what followed previous recessions, such as the recovery under President Ronald Reagan in 1983 and 1984.

BUT, WHAT ABOUT THE TRUMP EFFECT?
Trump's supporters say he's supercharged the economy. Now in the second year of his presidency, he has passed a major tax bill and rolled back a significant number of regulations, giving the economy another injection of capital — though economists disagree on the how much the tax cuts will really benefit the larger economy and whether it will have lasting effects to the economy.

Trump has surely seen some impressive data points in his first term: GDP growth has reached 4.2 percent, unemployment has reached its lowest point in half a century, and the stock market has reached new heights.

The president and his administration have been eager to tout the numbers. Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, kicked off the White House press briefing on Monday with a slew of charts. He said the growth is not an extension of a trend, but rather a "clear upward trajectory, way above the trend."

Economists aren't buying it: While the tax cuts probably helped inject some cash into the economy — particularly the stock market — the country has largely maintained the growth it saw under Obama.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...-obama-n908286
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:52 PM   #34
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Beto O'Rourke

Did you use him to bolster your argument?
Beto O'Rourke is a potential superstar in the Democratic party.

Beating the incument Ted Cruz in an overwhelmingly red state is, to be honest, unlikely. And if he falls to Cruz, the chances are that O'Rourke will fade into oblivion.

But if he somehow manages to pull of a major upset in Texas and turn that red seat blue, he will be a leader in the Democratic party, and eventually he'll run for national office.
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Old 09-22-2018, 10:00 PM   #35
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A history lesson in one Tweet:


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Old 09-23-2018, 01:00 AM   #36
Over Yonder Over Yonder is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Beto O'Rourke summed it up pretty succinctly the other day.


Ok. Lex I actually listened to this twice to be sure I heard what I thought heard. My honest question to you is do you overall believe and agree with his message? I'm not talking exact points, just his overall message.

I know you are a leftie, I'm just trying to figure out if you are a far leftie.
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Old 09-23-2018, 02:16 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Over Yonder View Post
Ok. Lex I actually listened to this twice to be sure I heard what I thought heard. My honest question to you is do you overall believe and agree with his message? I'm not talking exact points, just his overall message.

I know you are a leftie, I'm just trying to figure out if you are a far leftie.
That's one thing that's nerve racking about the left. Things are not as bad as the gilded age for the poor
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Old 09-23-2018, 02:29 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Name one Obama policy that sparked the economy, please. I think you need to be thanking the Fed as opposed to Obama.

And the tax cut, I guess Obama did that too?

Yeah, you're on a roll, moderate Lex
Nobody should ever thank the Fed.
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Old 09-23-2018, 06:52 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by SuperBowl4 View Post
Nobody should ever thank the Fed.
Generally speaking I would agree. But the fact is by them keeping interest rates at essentially 0 for so long forced tons of cash into the market.
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Old 09-23-2018, 07:50 AM   #40
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https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/tariff-tracker/
I'm sure many won't read, so here are some key highlights. Caterpillar expects $100-200M cost hit & will jack up prices (this will significantly hurt construction & ag). Coca-Cola raised prices on soda. Whirlpool anticipated $50-100M in added cost. Black & Decker projects $80M/year impact. The tariffs most certainly have had an impact. And that's not from anonymous sources, that's from the mouths of executives.

The govt has already paid a $12B subsidy to bailout soy. As of right now, the ONLY benefiting party appears not to be the steel industry, but BIG steel like Nucor, Arcelor Mittal, and US Steel. And not steelWORKERS... These three steelworkers unions are suing their company.

It's common sense what the problem is. Any volatility to the supply chain raises costs. Any restriction in supply raises manufacturing costs which either get soaked into lower margins, but usually mean higher prices. As anyone should have expected, the prize isn't the small % of steel workers. It's the manufacturers who buy the raw material, and the consumers who buy from the manufacturer. Higher steel input means higher prices for Caterpillar equipment which means higher cost to farmers and construction developers.

Most of the blow has been cushioned by economic growth prior to the tariffs, tax cuts, and manufacturers stockpiling inventory like milk & eggs during a blizzard. Meanwhile, those tax cuts & the soybean bailout have helped to contribute almost a trillion in new government debt.

There could be a positive endgame to this. But let's not be naive to think anything is working right now. We're going through a ton of pain over this. And it had better not only mean winning, but winning HUGE. Like all trade wars, the likely result is that the US will end up better off, but not worth the gigantic pain we went through to achieve those gains. That's why most economists say there are no winners in trade war.
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Old 09-23-2018, 08:02 AM   #41
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/tariff-tracker/
I'm sure many won't read, so here are some key highlights. Caterpillar expects $100-200M cost hit & will jack up prices (this will significantly hurt construction & ag). Coca-Cola raised prices on soda. Whirlpool anticipated $50-100M in added cost. Black & Decker projects $80M/year impact. The tariffs most certainly have had an impact. And that's not from anonymous sources, that's from the mouths of executives.

The govt has already paid a $12B subsidy to bailout soy. As of right now, the ONLY benefiting party appears not to be the steel industry, but BIG steel like Nucor, Arcelor Mittal, and US Steel. And not steelWORKERS... These three steelworkers unions are suing their company.

It's common sense what the problem is. Any volatility to the supply chain raises costs. Any restriction in supply raises manufacturing costs which either get soaked into lower margins, but usually mean higher prices. As anyone should have expected, the prize isn't the small % of steel workers. It's the manufacturers who buy the raw material, and the consumers who buy from the manufacturer. Higher steel input means higher prices for Caterpillar equipment which means higher cost to farmers and construction developers.

Most of the blow has been cushioned by economic growth prior to the tariffs, tax cuts, and manufacturers stockpiling inventory like milk & eggs during a blizzard. Meanwhile, those tax cuts & the soybean bailout have helped to contribute almost a trillion in new government debt.

There could be a positive endgame to this. But let's not be naive to think anything is working right now. We're going through a ton of pain over this. And it had better not only mean winning, but winning HUGE. Like all trade wars, the likely result is that the US will end up better off, but not worth the gigantic pain we went through to achieve those gains. That's why most economists say there are no winners in trade war.

The $ to soybean growers was already in the farm program and was not an added new cost. That fact seems to be ignored by all the anti Trumpers....

Love this speculation statement of fact that "this will significantly hurt construction and ag" as if suddenly construction and ag will have to massively buy new stuff at higher prices. In the past, when has a price increase by a hard goods supplier caused significant hurt? You do understand depreciation and tax consequences of purchasing and that the price increase over the life of the implement is minimal....or maybe not.

The so called Trade War has yet to manifest itself in any substantial way other than get people to the table to fix a lot of broken shit.

You lib progs need to back off your constant warbling of dire consequences to everything ever.
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Old 09-23-2018, 08:10 AM   #42
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If there is a huge drop in car sales, shouldn’t we be celebrating all the people not contributing to global warming by walking to work?

My hair is on fire over this speculation!
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Old 09-23-2018, 08:14 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Beto O'Rourke is a potential superstar in the Democratic party.

Beating the incument Ted Cruz in an overwhelmingly red state is, to be honest, unlikely. And if he falls to Cruz, the chances are that O'Rourke will fade into oblivion.

But if he somehow manages to pull of a major upset in Texas and turn that red seat blue, he will be a leader in the Democratic party, and eventually he'll run for national office.
You’re drunk off the koolaide.
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Old 09-23-2018, 08:48 AM   #44
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If Trump stops the trade war Lex will start a thread on how China and Trump are working together and Putin is running the show.

Indeed he will. Trump = "Damned if you do and damned if you don't". Mantra of the fascist left.
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Old 09-23-2018, 09:16 AM   #45
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I find it amusing that the leftists in our country are so pissed that Trump won they'd rather see America fail than Trump succeed.

We've been on the bad side of trade deals for decades. It seems that just about EVERYTHING I pick up has a "Made in China" label on it. I'm just glad we've finally got a president that is willing to do something about it. I work in the auto industry. Look how many of our "American" car makers have moved manufacturing to Mexico. Why did they do this? Because of loopholes in Nafta used to get around tarrifs with other nations. They import cheap parts and material into Mexico from other countries, build the cars there and import them here, skirting the tarrifs set in place with other non Nafta nations. Of course our goods were still being levied with Tarrifs going out to these countries. They've been using Nafta to skirt the system and it's about time we've got a president with the balls to do something about it.

We're trying to close the same loophole with Canada. Of course Canada is resisting because they've made a shit ton of money by exploiting this loophole. I don't blame them for resisting a new trade agreement. They stand to lose the goose that laid the golden egg, at our expense. What pisses me off are leftists in this country cheering them on. Including politicians who've had their pockets lined by this practice. They're holding out. Hoping they can out wait Trump. And some people in this country are cheering them on. Including our left wing puppet media. Disgusting.

Remember when Obama said "those manufacturing jobs aren't coming back"? They weren't coming back because our corrupt uni-party system didn't care about them coming back. Fix Nafta and balance out the trade agreements with China and you'll see just how wrong they are.

Last edited by jjjayb; 09-23-2018 at 09:38 AM..
Posts: 6,093
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