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Old 09-22-2018, 02:28 PM  
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Tariffs could mean a 2M drop in car sales and cost 715,000 jobs

This is what happens when you start a trade war. Trump thinks trade wars are good, and they're easy to win.

He's wrong.

Quote:
Tariffs could mean a 2M drop in car sales and cost 715,000 jobs, warns auto industry group

"Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place has made U.S. auto exports uncompetitive,” said one industry insider.

The impact of President Donald Trump's escalating tit-for-tat over tariffs is already being felt, say auto industry experts. New car prices are beginning to rise, and auto exports are dropping. But a new report warns that sales could plunge by as much as 2 million vehicles a year, resulting in the loss of up to 715,000 American jobs and a hit of as much as $62 billion to the U.S. GDP.

The Center for Automotive Research cites the biggest concern as the threatened use of trade rules known as Section 232 that would declare foreign-made cars and car parts a threat to national security. That could trigger a “downward cycle” in an auto industry already showing signs of decline after rebounding from the Great Recession, said Kristin Dziczek, a vice president and senior economist at the Center for Automotive Research, or CAR, in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

CAR’s new study is echoed by a variety of other studies looking at the potential impact of the Trump administration’s escalating trade war.

Already enacted tariffs on imported aluminum and steel have added about $240 to the cost of producing a new car, truck, or crossover in the U.S., noted Peter Nagle, a senior economist with research firm IHS Markit. And the first round of tariffs with China is adding still more to the price that manufacturers have to pay for a variety of parts used on American assembly lines.

The impact will grow as a result of the second round of China tariffs, Nagle added, cautioning that a “dizzying” series of trade moves will “exacerbate” the problems the auto industry faces as it struggles to head off the first downturn in sales since emerging from the depths of the last recession. Activating tariffs using Section 232 rules would likely prove devastating, he warned.

Nagel estimated consumers would be “looking at price increases of $1,300 for a typical mass market product, up to $5,800 for a luxury vehicle.” Those increases would not be limited to just imported vehicles. Toyota, for example, has forecast the price of a U.S.-made Camry would rise about $1,600.

In line with the new CAR study, IHS forecasts U.S. new vehicle sales would plunge by around 2 million vehicles annually, to 16.5 million a year from 2019 to 2025.

Add the possible tear-up of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the impact could be devastating. Under NAFTA, automakers have established a continent-wide network of parts and vehicle assembly operations. That’s backed up by a global production system that has been finely tuned, with little room for disruption. But industry experts warn that the Trump administration’s trade moves threaten to fracture that grid.

The impact could mean more than just higher costs. A number of medium-sized and smaller parts suppliers could be forced out of business, unable to afford the cost of relocating their operations back to the U.S. That could result in disruptions at assembly plants, said Nagle, possibly meaning shortages of some products, and a big hit to automakers’ profits.

With auto sales already declining, manufacturers have been struggling to minimize the impact on consumers from tariff-related cost increases. But, at some point, they will have to pass them on, resulting in higher sticker prices. But consumers are already struggling to deal with their car payments, driven up as the cost of the typical vehicle sold in the U.S. approaches $35,000. Vehicle loans are being stretched out to record levels, with 60, 72 and even 84-month financing becoming more the norm than the exception.

But trade is a two-way street, and the U.S. is already beginning to feel the impact in terms of auto exports. Ironically, shortly before the Trump administration enacted the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods, that country announced plans to reduce its own duties on imported vehicles from 25 percent to 15 percent. Now, however, U.S.-made vehicles are subject to 40 percent tariffs, making them even less competitive with auto imports from Europe or Japan, as well as vehicles made in China.

BMW, the largest exporter of American-made vehicles to China, says it is looking for ways to maintain demand for the X5 utility vehicles produced in South Carolina, perhaps boosting sales in the U.S. or Europe. But Ford has already announced plans to cut production of the Mustang and other vehicles shipped to China.

The escalating trade war with China “will further harm the U.S. auto industry and American workers and consumers," said John Bozzella, CEO of the Association of Global Automakers. "Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place has made U.S. auto exports uncompetitive and will eliminate our bilateral auto trade surplus.”

The impact of the trade war is likely to be felt in every corner of the auto industry, experts stress, even at the dealer level. The CAR study, for example, estimates as many as 117,000 employees at the country’s 17,000 new car dealerships could lose their jobs.

Though the Association of Global Automakers said it supports Trump’s efforts to resolve some nagging trade issues, Bozella said he is “concerned that escalating trade tensions will not produce the desired results.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/aut...m_npd_nn_tw_ma
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Old 09-22-2018, 08:35 PM   #16
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Meanwhile the stock market is made it's 102nd record high on Friday.....

Poor Lexi
Yes, I have enjoyed this 8-year stock market boom.

Thanks Obama!
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Old 09-22-2018, 08:37 PM   #17
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So, people in other countries actually want American cars? Why? I get Tesla, but why would someone from another country want to buy an American automobile? They are the worst.
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Old 09-22-2018, 08:39 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Yes, I have enjoyed this 8-year stock market boom.

Thanks Obama!
Yeah, it really took off when Obama rolled back Obama's regulations. And that tax cut he passed!!! WOW! And int he face of rising rates too?!?! I mean Obama kicked ass. Much more than Obama who had the Fed Put to drive everything up.

It's a good thing you're a moderate or you might give Obama credit for things he didn't do.

I bet you can't name one Obama policy that sparked the economy.
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Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 09-22-2018, 08:41 PM   #19
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Yeah, it really took off when Obama rolled back Obama's regulations. And that tax cut he passed!!! WOW! And int he face of rising rates too?!?! I mean Obama kicked ass. Much more than Obama who had the Fed Put to drive everything up.

It's a good thing you're a moderate or you might give Obama credit for things he didn't do.
Confirmation bias. Learn it. Live it. Love it.

Oh wait, you already have.
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Old 09-22-2018, 08:43 PM   #20
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Confirmation bias. Learn it. Live it. Love it.

Oh wait, you already have.
Name one Obama policy that sparked the economy, please. I think you need to be thanking the Fed as opposed to Obama.

And the tax cut, I guess Obama did that too?

Yeah, you're on a roll, moderate Lex
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Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:06 PM   #21
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Name one Obama policy that sparked the economy, please. I think you need to be thanking the Fed as opposed to Obama.

And the tax cut, I guess Obama did that too?

Yeah, you're on a roll, moderate Lex
I've already posted numerous statistics and multiple graphs that demonstrate what a shit economy Bush turned over to Obama, and what a robust economy Trump inherited from Obama. It's pointless to keep doing it over and over, because you are either unwilling to learn or incapable of learning (most likely both).

However, I will go ahead and say for about the 20th time that I no longer call myself a moderate.

I'm a liberal, and I'm damn proud of it. So, attempting to mock me with the whole "moderate" shtick is very ineffective.
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:09 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
I've already posted numerous statistics and multiple graphs that demonstrate what a shit economy Bush turned over to Obama, and what a robust economy Trump inherited from Obama. It's pointless to keep doing it over and over, because you are either unwilling to learn or incapable of learning (most likely both).

However, I will go ahead and say for about the 20th time that I no longer call myself a moderate.

I'm a liberal, and I'm damn proud of it. So, attempting to mock me with the whole "moderate" shtick is very ineffective.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...make your excuses. You don't know jack shit about economics. That being said, thanks for finally admitting what you've lied about all this time...
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:21 PM   #23
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Here's a stat for you, Pete. Wow, the Trump economy is really kicking ass on job growth!

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Old 09-22-2018, 09:23 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Here's a stat for you, Pete. Wow, the Trump economy is really kicking ass on job growth!

You can cherry pick your stats all you want. You still have not named on policy Obama enacted to spark the economy. Because you can't. Like I said, Federal Reserve.....A.K.A. "The Fed Put" is what Obama has to thank....

stick to arguing about scoops of ice cream...
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Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:23 PM   #25
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I'm starting to think you have issues with TRUMP. Have you thought about getting help?
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:33 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You can cherry pick your stats all you want. You still have not named on policy Obama enacted to spark the economy. Because you can't. Like I said, Federal Reserve.....A.K.A. "The Fed Put" is what Obama has to thank....

stick to arguing about scoops of ice cream...
OK, if I have to spoon-feed it to you, I will. You could easily find this yourself with a 5-second Google search. Wikipedia isn't exactly a primary source, but it is a good starting point in an information search, and the information contained in it is easily verifiable.

Quote:
The economic policy of the Barack Obama administration was characterized by moderate tax increases on higher income Americans designed to fund healthcare reform, reduce the federal budget deficit, and decrease income inequality.

His first term (2009–2013) included measures designed to address the Great Recession and Subprime mortgage crisis, which began in 2007. These included a major stimulus package, banking regulation, and comprehensive healthcare reform.

As the economy improved and job creation continued during his second term (2013–2017), the Bush tax cuts were allowed to expire for the highest income taxpayers and a spending sequester (cap) was implemented, to further reduce the deficit back to typical historical levels.

Corporate profits and the stock market reached record levels in 2010 and 2013 respectively, while inflation and interest rates remained near record low levels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...administration

Most of these policies are anathema to die-hard Republicans whose dogmatic belief is that you must cut taxes, cut taxes, cut taxes, and then, cut them some more. But there is no arguing with the results achieved by the Obama administration.

And you know what? If Trump had just stopped after implementing the reckless and irresponsible tax cut of 2016, things would have looked rosy for a few years until the annual trillion dollar deficits became a major drag on the economy. But he is so hell-bent on getting into a dick-measuring contest with his idiotic tariffs that he is going to squander his good fortune.

The tariffs will be his (and our) downfall. Most Republicans understand that and agree with it, but they're so terrified of getting primaried by the Trumptards that most of them are remaining silent.
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:34 PM   #27
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I'm starting to think you have issues with TRUMP. Have you thought about getting help?
I have a MAJOR ****ing issue with Trump. The problem is that you don't.
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:36 PM   #28
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Beto O'Rourke summed it up pretty succinctly the other day.


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Old 09-22-2018, 09:36 PM   #29
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Economists agree: Trump, not Obama, gets credit for economy
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...it-for-economy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 09-22-2018, 09:40 PM   #30
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Oh great.

Another headline that pretends to know the future.

The minute I see “could” or “may” or a question mark in a headline I move on and weep for the media.

Since 90% of people don’t actually read beyond the Twitter/Facebook headline they all are couched in speculative rhetoric.

There are Marvel fan sites with more journalistic integrity.
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