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Old 10-07-2017, 03:32 AM  
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WaPo: Trump is on track to win reelection

Trump is on track to win reelection

By Doug Sosnik October 6 at 7:22 PM
Doug Sosnik, a Democratic political strategist, was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000.

More than half of Americans don’t think Donald Trump is fit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning reelection. If Trump isn’t removed from office and doesn’t lead the country into some form of global catastrophe, he could secure a second term simply by maintaining his current level of support with his political base.

We have entered a new era in American politics. The 2016 election exposed how economic, social and cultural issues have splintered the country and increasingly divided voters by age, race, education and geography. This isn’t going to change.

What have changed are the political fault lines that have driven the debate since the early 1980s. Until now, the ideological divides between the parties were largely differences around social issues, defense spending and trade, as well as tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. Today, the central issue has become populism as voters have moved away from the two political parties and increasingly self-identified as independents.

In 2016, Trump capitalized on this changing political environment. He consolidated the growing number of angry voters who felt let down by the people and institutions that control power in the country. Trump’s support from these voters is personal, not ideological. That explains their willingness to stick with him despite his failures of leadership.

Since Trump’s inaugural address, his focus has been on maintaining his support among this loyal base rather than expanding it. As counterintuitive as it may seem, this could be a winning political strategy.

First, Trump knows that gaining the support of a majority of voters in a presidential election is not a requirement; it’s simply an aspiration. In fact, two out of the last three presidents were elected despite losing the popular vote.

Second, the continued decline in support for both political parties works to Trump’s advantage. The lack of voters’ faith in both parties increases the probability that there will be a major third-party candidate on the 2020 ballot. It will also lead to other minor-party candidates joining the presidential race. The multi-candidate field will further divide the anti-Trump vote, making it possible for him to get reelected simply by holding on to his current level of support.

Third, despite dismal poll numbers, Trump enters the contest with a job approval rating that is certainly at least marginally better than what the current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 election, most analysts tracked the national polling, which failed to capture Trump’s strength in key battleground states. Current surveys continue to understate his support. Many national polls survey all eligible voters, rather than registered or likely voters, which can underestimate Trump, and some voters may be reluctant to admit that they are pro-Trump at all. Add to that the fact that Trump effectively demonstrated during the 2016 campaign that he is capable of expanding his support by effectively demonizing his opponents.

Fourth, Trump’s support has largely remained durable with a core group of supporters. These are the voters Trump was referring to when he said that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and he wouldn’t lose votes. There is another group of Trump followers whose support isn’t unequivocal, but they have stayed with him because they still believe he will blow up the system and bring about real change.

In order to maintain and nurture his base, Trump will continue to embrace conflict, which will probably solidify his historically low approval ratings. Trump cannot win a two-person race this way. But he can prevail in a field with strong independent candidates on the ballot.

So for Democrats and others who want to beat Trump, unifying behind one candidate will be essential. In addition, Trump must carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2020 to win. Efforts should begin now to chip away at his support in these states.

It would be as big a mistake to assume that Trump cannot win reelection in 2020 as it was for those of us who never thought that he could become president in the first place.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.8ca5d448cf4b
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Old 10-07-2017, 06:38 PM   #16
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I think the Democrat stage is going to look a lot like the Republican stage the next time around. Everyone and their dog catcher is going to try to be the Democrat nominee.

Biden
Gore
Kerry
Cuban
Zuckerberg
Clooney
Winfrey
Brown
Deblasio
Kaine
McAuliffe
Sanders
Gabbard
McKinney
Brown
Cuomo
Dayton
Clinton?
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Old 10-07-2017, 06:52 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
Trying to forecast 2020 without seeing what happens in 2018 is like trying to catch a fart in a tornado.


This is some good shit.
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Old 10-07-2017, 06:55 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I think the Democrat stage is going to look a lot like the Republican stage the next time around. Everyone and their dog catcher is going to try to be the Democrat nominee.

Biden
Gore
Kerry
Cuban
Zuckerberg
Clooney
Winfrey
Brown
Deblasio
Kaine
McAuliffe
Sanders
Gabbard
McKinney
Brown
Cuomo
Dayton
Clinton?
A lot depends on how Trump performs as president.

If Trump is poorly regarded, which I think is likely, you’ll see “establishment” Democrats step up, but they will ABSOLUTELY need to have charisma.

If Trump does well and looks hard to beat, you’ll see more unorthodox and less mainstream candidates run.

First, I will mention those who I DO NOT think will run.

Tim Kaine - Flubbed the VP debate vs. Pence. Not charismatic. Downright boring in fact, but a good vote-getter in Virginia. Dems will need him to hold that senate seat.

Michelle Obama - she has never shown interested in actually being a politician.

Hillary Clinton- she is DONE. She got the consolation prize, along with Samuel Tilden, of winning the popular vote.

Martin O’Malley - zzzzzzzz…… oh, sorry I fell asleep. Did someone say something?

Elizabeth Warren - She’s too old, she’s got too much baggage, and she can have more influence as the liberal lion in the Senate with Ted Kennedy’s old seat. She makes for a very good senator, I think. On the stump, though, she is not very charismatic… I was not that impressed with her when I saw her with Hillary.

Now, those who seem likely to run, or at least are quite plausible:

As others have mentioned, Cory Booker seems highly probable in either case, but more in the former. He’s a fresh face & likeable, has been in the Senate long enough to be well regarded in the party, & look like a sane choice compared to Trump, but he has not been around long enough to become “establishment.” Seems to have a good middle ground between the Bernie people and the moderates.
Andrew Cuomo has not been shy about his ambitions to run for president. However, he will be bitterly contested by the Bernie/Warren wing. He is basically a Republican. Worse than Hillary, from the left’s perspective, by far. He also has plenty of corruption baggage.
Kirsten Gillibrand is less objectionable than Cuomo for the left wing. She’s like a s younger, less scandal-ridden version of Hillary Clinton. She has managed to stay out of the limelight, but with that seems to be a lack of major accomplishment. She’s not very charismatic. Not bad, but not good.
Kamala Harris - the most charismatic of any of the potential women and friendly with the Obamas, which will be far more powerful than the Clinton wing by 2020. We’ll see what kind of path she can strike in the senate.

I think it will be Harris or Booker. Personally, and I hate to say this, but I think a male will be needed to unseat Trump, so Booker. However, I have been impressed with Harris.

The 2nd tier -

Bernie Sanders - He will be very old, but I think the possibility exists and he now has an enormous fan club. He’s pretty chipper and has not ruled it out.
Added by comment suggestions -Gavin Newsom, current Lieutenant Governor of California, assuming he gets elected governor in 2018. Attactive and charismatic with a pretty family. Was 2 term mayor of San Francisco which will work against him, but he was conservative by Bay Area standards. Represents well the socially liberal, economic moderate pro-tech business wing of the modern Democrats. Will struggle with elitism accusations.
Amy Klobuchar - talked about both in 2008 and 2012. Very popular in her home state. Not charismatic.
Tulsi Gabbard - possibly a Bernie heir apparent, but young, attractive, diverse background, military background. Main drawback is being from Hawaii. She may be the token Democrat on Trump’s cabinet, though, indicating that he sees her as a threat and wants to take her off the table. She will be anathema to the Democratic Party if she takes a job with the Trump administration, much like Jon Huntsman was for the Republicans.
Julian Castro (or Joaquin) - Always kind of looks like a lightweight & have never won statewide offices. Also, I think it was proven in 2016 that black vote > hispanic vote.
Sherrod Brown - No charisma. Will probably lose senate re-election in Ohio in 2018. No.
Tammy Duckworth - Being based out of Illinois is helpful for the midwest. Good military background.
Al Franken - also from Minnesota - midwest is good. Can be funny. Getting older these days.

Potential big-city mayors -

Bill de Blasio - Too liberal in the wrong ways (gun control). Mishandled police issues.. would get destroyed on that.
Eric Garcetti - Los Angeles mayor who has already been an opponent of Trump.

Pandering for the “Bubba” vote:

If Democrats want to try and contest the old school conservative Dems / white working class vote, they actually do have a few options.

John Bel Edwards - governor of a VERY red state. Middling approval though.
Jon Tester - senator from a red western state who will probably be better off running for president than running for senate re-election that he will surely lose.
Steve Bullock - popular red state governor
Joe Manchin - about as conservative as a Dem will get.

Possible celebrities:

Kanye West
Mark Cuban
Unknown celebrity - Trump has opened the way for non-politicians to run and win.

Tl;Dr I’d bet my hat it’s Booker. Unless Trump turns out to be a strong president. Then you could see someone like Al Franken.
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Old 10-07-2017, 10:54 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan View Post
Possible celebrities:

Kanye West
Mark Cuban
Unknown celebrity - Trump has opened the way for non-politicians to run and win.
Cuban vs. Trump would certainly be an interesting campaign.
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Old 10-08-2017, 03:45 AM   #20
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A staunchly down the line progressive is no threat to win middle America, and thus no threat at all
If the Democrats went with Pete Buttigieg for DNC chair, they might have a fighting shot. He ran on a platform that the DNC needs to win multiple small races instead of focusing on just the big urban ones. He was soundly defeated. The Dems are completely clueless about why they lost.
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Old 10-08-2017, 07:07 AM   #21
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No shit. A 32% approval rating 8 months in is not a good indicator for re-election. Being in prison is an even worse one.
Still ****ing that chicken, I see.
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Old 10-08-2017, 08:03 AM   #22
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Obama 2.0 isn't going to win...
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Old 10-08-2017, 08:08 AM   #23
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Obama 2.0 isn't going to win...
What if they run a woman that isn't involved in a dozen scandals and isn't an establishment crone?

Last edited by notorious; 10-08-2017 at 08:18 AM..
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Old 10-08-2017, 09:22 AM   #24
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Cuban vs. Trump would certainly be an interesting campaign.
Mark Cuban’s very, very likable - I can see him getting a lot of support. Like Trump, he lacks governmental experience but has a stronger business track record than Trump and is a genuinely intelligent personable guy.

However, if Donald Trump does a poor job as president, it is going to make it much more difficult for someone to run as an “outsider businessman” who is going to come to DC and clean it up. Trump was put into the White House by people who signed up to that narrative, and it won’t work a second time, I suspect, if it fails abjectly the first.
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Old 10-01-2018, 10:32 AM   #25
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Gist of the NYT article is that Trump owns the media and they don’t see a DNC candidate to supplant that.

https://www.wral.com/why-trump-will-...term/17882354/
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Old 10-01-2018, 11:50 AM   #26
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Once again. People don't understand that millions of people vote for a president without necessarily approving of them. Lots of people dislike Trump, but see the benefits of his policies.
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Old 10-01-2018, 11:57 AM   #27
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Once again. People don't understand that millions of people vote for a president without necessarily approving of them. Lots of people dislike Trump, but see the benefits of his policies.
Not a fan of him but I can’t discount what he has done for my family’s financials... complete 180 frome the Islam years of Osama
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Old 10-01-2018, 03:25 PM   #28
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Sleazy hate filled leftists still think Trump was elected by angry stupid unwashed people
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Old 10-01-2018, 03:26 PM   #29
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Sleazy hate filled leftists still think Trump was elected by angry stupid unwashed people
The deplorable dregs of society.
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Old 10-01-2018, 10:15 PM   #30
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