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Old 10-07-2017, 03:32 AM  
Taco John Taco John is offline
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WaPo: Trump is on track to win reelection

Trump is on track to win reelection

By Doug Sosnik October 6 at 7:22 PM
Doug Sosnik, a Democratic political strategist, was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000.

More than half of Americans donít think Donald Trump is fit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning reelection. If Trump isnít removed from office and doesnít lead the country into some form of global catastrophe, he could secure a second term simply by maintaining his current level of support with his political base.

We have entered a new era in American politics. The 2016 election exposed how economic, social and cultural issues have splintered the country and increasingly divided voters by age, race, education and geography. This isnít going to change.

What have changed are the political fault lines that have driven the debate since the early 1980s. Until now, the ideological divides between the parties were largely differences around social issues, defense spending and trade, as well as tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. Today, the central issue has become populism as voters have moved away from the two political parties and increasingly self-identified as independents.

In 2016, Trump capitalized on this changing political environment. He consolidated the growing number of angry voters who felt let down by the people and institutions that control power in the country. Trumpís support from these voters is personal, not ideological. That explains their willingness to stick with him despite his failures of leadership.

Since Trumpís inaugural address, his focus has been on maintaining his support among this loyal base rather than expanding it. As counterintuitive as it may seem, this could be a winning political strategy.

First, Trump knows that gaining the support of a majority of voters in a presidential election is not a requirement; itís simply an aspiration. In fact, two out of the last three presidents were elected despite losing the popular vote.

Second, the continued decline in support for both political parties works to Trumpís advantage. The lack of votersí faith in both parties increases the probability that there will be a major third-party candidate on the 2020 ballot. It will also lead to other minor-party candidates joining the presidential race. The multi-candidate field will further divide the anti-Trump vote, making it possible for him to get reelected simply by holding on to his current level of support.

Third, despite dismal poll numbers, Trump enters the contest with a job approval rating that is certainly at least marginally better than what the current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 election, most analysts tracked the national polling, which failed to capture Trumpís strength in key battleground states. Current surveys continue to understate his support. Many national polls survey all eligible voters, rather than registered or likely voters, which can underestimate Trump, and some voters may be reluctant to admit that they are pro-Trump at all. Add to that the fact that Trump effectively demonstrated during the 2016 campaign that he is capable of expanding his support by effectively demonizing his opponents.

Fourth, Trumpís support has largely remained durable with a core group of supporters. These are the voters Trump was referring to when he said that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and he wouldnít lose votes. There is another group of Trump followers whose support isnít unequivocal, but they have stayed with him because they still believe he will blow up the system and bring about real change.

In order to maintain and nurture his base, Trump will continue to embrace conflict, which will probably solidify his historically low approval ratings. Trump cannot win a two-person race this way. But he can prevail in a field with strong independent candidates on the ballot.

So for Democrats and others who want to beat Trump, unifying behind one candidate will be essential. In addition, Trump must carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2020 to win. Efforts should begin now to chip away at his support in these states.

It would be as big a mistake to assume that Trump cannot win reelection in 2020 as it was for those of us who never thought that he could become president in the first place.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.8ca5d448cf4b
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Old 10-07-2017, 04:27 AM   #2
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Today, the central issue has become populism as voters have moved away from the two political parties and increasingly self-identified as independents.
I agree. Part of the disgust with the current two parties has been endless war under both. Polls bear this out. So if Trump falls into the trap being laid by men like Bolton, and starts bombing Iran, especially over a lack of evidence they have developed nuke—it will be OVER for him. Especially, if another Independent-thinking candidate rises to challenge him on such an act being no different than Bush, Obama, Bush and HiLiaRy.
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Old 10-07-2017, 07:52 AM   #3
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Sound the surprise alarm.. no shit, who's he gonna run against again?
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Old 10-07-2017, 08:15 AM   #4
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Hard to argue. Itís pretty obvious, based on the last election, that the media doesnít control how the general populace votes.

While I wonít, yet again, vote him, it will be must-see TV when he gets re-elected.
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Old 10-07-2017, 08:16 AM   #5
Pueblo Chieftan Pueblo Chieftan is offline
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The MSM was saying Hillary was a shoo-in. But this is the first of many opinion pieces about the 2020 election. Sounds like WaPo is gearing up for some reverse psychology.
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Old 10-07-2017, 11:11 AM   #6
Aries Walker Aries Walker is offline
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Trying to forecast 2020 without seeing what happens in 2018 is like trying to catch a fart in a tornado.
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Old 10-07-2017, 11:20 AM   #7
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Wait... I thought the WaPo was just MSM fake news.
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Old 10-07-2017, 11:42 AM   #8
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Old 10-07-2017, 11:49 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
Trying to forecast 2020 without seeing what happens in 2018 is like trying to catch a fart in a tornado.
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Old 10-07-2017, 05:40 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Camaro View Post
Sound the surprise alarm.. no shit, who's he gonna run against again?
Tulsi Gabbard.

Progressive Democrat, Representative of Hawaiiís 2nd District since 2013.

She has experience in local and state politics, and resigned from the latter to serve as a medic in the Iraq War. Upon entering the House, she became both the first American Samoan and the first Hindu to serve in Congress. Taking office at 35, she was and still is one of the youngest legislators in government. In 2015 she resigned as vice chair of the DNC to endorse Bernie Sanders. Currently she sits on the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees.

Gabbardís policies are down the line, staunchly Progressive. She very strongly opposes the TPP, calls for the restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act, and supports abortion rights and marriage equality. She has vocally criticized Obamaís drone policy and opposes all foreign intervention. She went to the Standing Rock protests in North Dakota with over 2000 veterans just a few days ago(Dec 4). Now thatís a real liberal folks.

I firmly believe that if Tulsi Gabbard squared off with Trump in the general election, she would utterly annihilate him. She appeals to all the dunces that voted for HRC just because ďthereís a special place in hell for women that donít support womenĒ as Madeline Albright so eloquently put it. She appeals to minorities(and not in the patronizing, disrespectful way HRC did), and as an economic, anti-establishment progressive, she appeals to the mass of people that voted for Trump out fiscal desperation. Tulsi Gabbard is basically Bernie Sanders but half a century younger and beautiful.
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Old 10-07-2017, 06:10 PM   #11
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A staunchly down the line progressive is no threat to win middle America, and thus no threat at all
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Old 10-07-2017, 06:16 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
Trying to forecast 2020 without seeing what happens in 2018 is like trying to catch a fart in a tornado.
No shit. A 32% approval rating 8 months in is not a good indicator for re-election. Being in prison is an even worse one.
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Old 10-07-2017, 06:17 PM   #13
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No shit. A 32% approval rating 8 months in is not a good indicator for re-election. Being in prison is an even worse one.
What was his approval rating on election day?
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Old 10-07-2017, 06:21 PM   #14
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Prior to November 8th, just 34 percent of Americans said they had a favorable view of Trump... http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/donald...-bush-clinton/
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Old 10-07-2017, 06:27 PM   #15
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A staunchly down the line progressive is no threat to win middle America, and thus no threat at all
The way I see it the Trump presidency could shake out in one of two ways, either he royally screws things up, or he doesnít.

If he does, the Democrats could offer a steady, experienced hand, in the mold of Jerry Brown or Andrew Cuomo or Mark Dayton. These guys have been successful, popular and liberal Democratic governors of large states, with records of sound fiscal management and other accomplishments. Another option would be Joe Biden, who has the added benefit of being able to relate on an emotional level with the two-time Obama voters in the Rust Belt who made Trump President.
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