Way Too Early 2017 Mock

[kccrow]

OFFSEASON PLAN

Spoiler!

Release (incl. Waive/Retirement/Trade/Option)

Nick Foles (QB) - Do not pick up option year (+$10,750,000) - Unless the Chiefs think Foles will take over for Smith, there's no reason to keep him on the roster at that type of price tag. The Chiefs won't pick up that option. They may let it expire and re-sign Foles, but even that seems unlikely.
Jamaal Charles (RB) - Trade for 2018 conditional draft pick (+$7,000,000) - Charles is getting old and those injuries are a factor. If he can show he's got something left by season's end, I think the Chiefs move him and $7 million off the books for some type of compensation. If not, he's going to have to take a significant pay cut or be cut.
Jah Reid (OL) - Release (+$2,075,000) - Reid became insurance after the Chiefs signed Mitchell Schwartz, and Reid hasn't even seen much action with all of the injuries at guard. His salary is needed elsewhere.
Demetrius Harris (TE) - Release (+$1,050,000) - Too many drops and plenty of time to develop, it's time to move on as the Chiefs have several young TE's with equal or better ability in the wings.

Allow to Walk

Albert Wilson (WR) - Lackluster play and the ascention of Tyreek Hill as a rookie makes Wilson easily expendable. A RFA tender is too much to pay for his services in my opinion.
Kendall Reyes (DL) - Chris Jones and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are developing nicely. Dorsey will likely look to add more young depth.
Bishop Sankey (RB) - A backup plan to a backup plan, so unless he makes some significant contribution he's out.
Mike Person (OG) - Not a contributor.
Trey Millard (FB) - Not a contributor.
Kenny Cook (WR) - Not a contributor.

Re-Sign

Eric Berry (S) - 5-years $60,000,000 with $28,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($17,000,000 signing bonus).

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $7.60 m ($4.00 guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.60 m ($7.00 guaranteed base), 2019 - $13.60 m, 2020, $13.60 m, 2021 - $14.60 m

Tryann Mathieu agreed to a 5-year, $62.5 million extension a year ago ($12.5 m/yr w/ $21.25 m guaranteed at signing) to stay with the Cardinals, so that is likely the precedent that Berry's camp will follow. Like with most negotiations, it isn't always the total or average money of the contract, but the guaranteed money. Berry's contract would come in second in average at $12.0 m per, but he'd receive the most guaranteed of any safety to date. Berry is one of the primary leaders on the defense, so his retention is of paramount importance.

Dontari Poe (NT) - 5-years $47,000,000 with $21,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($9,000,000 signing bonus)

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $6.00 m ($4.00 of guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.00 m ($8.00 of guaranteed base), 2019 - $10.00 m, 2020 - $10.00 m, 2021 - 11.00 m

Damon Harrison signed a 5-year $46.25 million deal ($9,250,000/year w/$20 m guaranteed at signing) to go from the Jets to the Giants a year ago, and Poe is every bit as good of a player. It stands to reason that Poe will receive at least a comparable contract. The question would become what teams would forcast him becoming in a 4-3 where he could put more pressure on the QB. With seasons including 4.5 and 6.0 sacks as a NT in a 3-4, teams would likely bet on him being a guy capable of 8+ sacks in a 1-gap scheme, which would put him in the upper echelon of DTs. For those reasons, Poe's value could rise much higher than Harrison's. A good NT is the most essential piece to running a quality 3-4 defense, and the Chiefs have the NFL's best in Dontari Poe. Poe is a must sign.

Dustin Colquitt (P) - 5-year, $20,350,000 Extension, converting $4,000,000 of 2017 money to a signing bonus and guaranteeing another 1,150,000 in 2017 salary and 2,400,000 in 2018 salary for a total of $7.55 million guaranteed.

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $2.80 m, 2018 - $3.25 m, 2019 - $3.25 m, 2020 - $3.65 m, 2021 - $4.05 m, 2022 - -$4.15 m

Colquitt is an easy conversion of cap funding this season through either cut or extension. In this case the Chiefs gain $2.1 million in cap space and maintain Colquitt as one of the highest paid punters in the league as well as having the most guaranteed money through the end of his career.

Daniel Sorensen (SS) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000
James Winchester (LS) - 1-year ERFA tender of $615,000
Cairo Santos (K) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000

Resulting Cap Liabilities: $162,079,345 (versus projected $166,000,000 cap = $3,920,655 cap space, plus potential $5.6 m in rollover from 2016)

DRAFT

1. Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State (6'3" 243)

There is no question that the Chiefs need help at inside linebacker heading into 2017. I'm going out on a limb and saying that McMillan will declare for the draft after listening to some of his comments during bowl week. The difference between him staying and going really depends on how badly he wants a tree planted in his name after only garnering 2nd-team All-American honors this season (shameful really). McMillan is one of Ohio State's better players at a position they've had some all-time greats at, and that is not a small statement. This kid is the real deal. He can cover, shed blockers, blitz, hit like a truck, he can do it all. All that while being the unquestioned leader of the Buckeyes' defense, an outstanding student, and an outstanding community volunteer. McMillan could instantly fill the void left by Derrick Johnson, whom I believe will retire following a second Achilles rupture. If the Chiefs have to trade up to get this kid, I'm on board.

2. Hunter Dimick, DE, Utah (6'3" 266)

Dee Ford has stepped up way more than I thought he would in 2016. While his run defense needs to improve much more, he's come a long way since his rookie season when he was running away from the offense. It may be time I eat some crow on Ford, but he has work yet to do until I'm convinced he can carry this over for the long-haul. With Ford's emergence as a threat, pass rusher becomes a less pressing need. However, Hali may just hang them up after 2016, so a third pass rusher is definitely going to be needed. In the same breath, can KC afford to retain some players on defense in the coming years, including Ford? Dimick reminds me of Hali with decent speed, good strength, outstanding technique, and a motor that just doesn't shut down. Not to mention, he lead the PAC-12 with 13.5 sacks in 2016.

3. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado (5'11" 205)

Pick your reasons that Chiefs will likely need to add once again to the defensive backfield, which might include: the KeiVarae Russell debacle, Kenneth Acker not playing well, D.J. White showing a rookie learning curve, Phillip Gaines always being injured, or Steven Nelson looking lost 90% of the time. Awuzie reminds me alot of my guy from last season, D.J. White. He's not huge, but he's menacing in all facets. Sticky in coverage, great tackler, physical, can play special teams, blitzes well from the nickel, and can play the football well enough. This kid can line up anywhere in the defensive backfield. As much as KC runs the nickel, Awuzie might be a perfect addition.

4. Erik Magnuson, OT, Michigan (6'5" 305)

The Chiefs may be needing to free up some cap space and Jah Reid seems like a good candidate for the cut list. If that is the case, the Chiefs will need to go shopping for a backup right tackle/guard candidate. Magnuson has the athleticism and demeanor to stay out at tackle in the NFL, but must clean up some technique issues to be consistent in the NFL. Magnuson is one of the best pass blocking lineman in the Big Ten and is a solid run blocker to boot.

4. Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh (6'2" 225) (Projected Comp - Jeff Allen, OG)

With Rudolph deciding to stay in school, I really don't see the need for the Chiefs to jump on a QB overly early in the draft. That said, I'm putting Peterman back into my mock after a short-lived exit. Peterman checks alot of boxes in the Aaron Murray-type of mold having run a pro-style offense and having a good arm and solid mechanics, but perhaps better athleticism and a stronger arm. The Chiefs will likely need a 3rd QB going into 2017 if they don't retain Nick Foles, which doesn't seem likely given the cap restraints.

5. Jeremy Sprinkle, TE, Arkansas (6'5" 256)

The Chiefs have a fairly healthy stable of tight ends, especially receiving tight ends, but they lack a solid all-around tight end opposite Travis Kelce. Sprinkle is not only a reliable pass receiver and solid end-zone threat, but he's a very good blocker that can make contact on the move. He gets used at multiple spots in the Razorback offense, including in tight, split out, and at half-back, so he has some versatility as a blocker/receiver. Sprinkle doesn't have elite quickness and speed to threaten the seam as a number one tight end in the NFL, but he's got very respectable long speed to break away if given the opportunity.

5. De'Veon Smith, RB, Michigan (5'11" 228) (Projected Comp - Chase Daniel, QB)

The Chiefs very well may release or trade Jamaal Charles this offseason and the stable of RBs gets a bit light after Spencer Ware. Smith is a near clone of Ware in that he's a big, strong, powerful back that hits the hole hard and fast. Smith has good vision and is a one-cut-and-go type of back. Smith also catches the ball very well out of the backfield, which is a huge prerequisite in Andy Reid's offense.

6. Forfeited, Anti-Tampering

6. Treyvon Hester, DT, Toledo (6'3" 300) (Projected Comp - Donald Stephenson, OT)

Dontari Poe is set to hit free agency if he doesn't get a contract, and Jaye Howard will have 1 year left on his 2-year deal, plus there could be depth issues if the Chiefs don't retain Kendall Reyes. The Chiefs will need to continue the pipeline on the D-line. Hester is a good sized tackle with disruptive traits, especially a quick first step off the snap. Hester is routinely double and triple-teamed on the front line, so his stat lines don't look gaudy. Looks like a bit quicker version of Jaye Howard. Needs some work on maintaining his area discipline and play recognition, but his motor doesn't seem to stop. Plays with more of a defensive end mentality than a defensive tackle.

6. Isaac Asiata, OG, Utah (6'3" 323) (Projected Comp - Tyvon Branch, SS)

The Chiefs depth at OG, and even its starters, are a bit suspect. Asiata is a ball of energy on the offensive line with excellent foot speed and great bulk for the position. His abilit to pull and get into space is a huge upgrade to what Zach Fulton can offer. Asiata has played a bit of tackle and both guard spots in his four years with the Utes, giving him some flexibility as a rotational lineman at the onset. If Asiata can clean up his tendency to lean into blocks after engaging, he'll be a quality player on the interior. Asiata won the PAC-12's Morris Trophy as the top offensive lineman in the conference as voted by his peers on the defensive line.

7. Josh Augusta, DT, Missouri (6'4" 346)

The Chiefs may have a major issue if Poe leaves in free agency, but if he's retained the NT position becomes less of a concern. This is where a player like Augusta could be developed for the future. Augusta was beginning to look more like a baby mammoth than a football player, but finally seemed to get his weight under control in 2016, and his stat line benefited tremendously. The fact remains, his weight issues are going to scare teams off and push him down in the draft despite his solid play in 2016. If Augusta can maintain a sub-350 pound weight and continue to develop, he could be a force on the interior that commands double-teams.

Change Lists (Last update 12/26/16)

Spoiler!

Changes 1: Billy Price (OG), Mitch Leidner (QB), Zach Pascal (WR) out. Nathan Peterman (QB), Marlon Mack (RB), DeAngelo Yancey (WR) in.
Movement: Magnuson from round 5 to round 4. Awuzie from round 4 to round 3. Hester from round 7 to round 6. Dimick from round 4 to round 2. Nacua from round 3 to round 7.

Changes 2: Zach Cunningham (ILB), Marlon Mack (RB), Nathan Peterman (QB) out. Mason Rudolph (QB), Marquel Lee (ILB), De'Veon Smith (RB) in.

Changes 3: Vincent Taylor (DT), Kai Nacua (FS) out. Jeremy Sprinkle (TE), Josh Augusta (NT) in.

Changes 4: Mason Rudolph (QB), Marquel Lee (ILB), DeAngelo Yancey (WR) out. Raekwon McMillan (ILB), Nathan Peterman (QB), Isaac Asiata (OG) in.

ROSTER

QB: A. Smith, T. Bray, N. Peterman
RB: S. Ware, C. West, D. Smith
FB: A. Sherman
WR: J. Maclin, C. Conley, T. Hill, D. Robinson, D. Thomas
TE: T. Kelce, R. Travis, J. Sprinkle, J. O'Shaughnessy
OL: E. Fisher, M. Schwartz, E. Magnuson
OG: L. Duvernay-Tardiff, P. Ehinger, I. Asiata
OC: M. Morse, Z. Fulton
DE: C. Jones, J. Howard, A. Bailey, R. Nunez-Roches, T. Hester
NT: D. Poe, J. Augusta
OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, H. Dimick, D. Nicholas, F. Zombo
ILB: R. McMillan, J. Mauga, R. Wilson, D. Alexander, T. Smith, D. Johnson
CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, D. White, C. Awuzie, K. Acker
FS: R. Parker, E. Murray
SS: E. Berry, D. Sorensen
ST: C. Santos, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester

[kccrow]

Oh my, just realized I forgot the pick for Chase Daniel... no wonder you've been questioning Direckshun... Sweet Jeebus... My brain has been in a fog lately, too much personal shit going on to be with it.

[kccrow]

Updated 12/8... Some small changes, enjoy.

[Urc Burry]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Updated 12/8... Some small changes, enjoy.

Whelp. Especially after tonight it's hard to argue against that. This seems like a good draft for ILB, right? I haven't been following college football too much, but Cunningham, Foster, and Jarrad Davis all seem like good prospects

[Direckshun]

I can't help but think this is a waste of resources.

As it stands right now, we have a projected depth in 2017 of Houston, Ford, Hali, and Nicholas at OLB. You're throwing a 2nd rounder at it a year too soon.

We'll have an ILB corps of Wilson, Mauga, March, and Alexander and DJ will likely return midway through the 2017 season. You're throwing a 1st at it too soon.

This draft really is the perfect opportunity to throw high resources at QB and DL. Dorsey will almost certainly draft DL first, at the risk of losing Poe and Howard after 2017. Though, if he somehow signs Poe, which you've projected, I think that makes CB priority 1B (with QBotF at 1A).

[Saccopoo]

First three picks are absolutely balls!

Cunningham is awesome. Even if they have to move up for him, he's the best ILB in this draft and fits Dorsey's prototype at the position.

Dimnick is a beast and is Tamba Hali.

Awuzie would be the perfect compliment to Peters and would be a really amazing fit for Sutton's defense. Best college CB I've seen this year by a long shot.

[KChiefs1]

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles...und-mock-draft







Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mecca]

If it broke like that dudes mock I'd hope the Chiefs picked Watson...

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If it broke like that dudes mock I'd hope the Chiefs picked Watson...

Yep.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I can't help but think this is a waste of resources.

As it stands right now, we have a projected depth in 2017 of Houston, Ford, Hali, and Nicholas at OLB. You're throwing a 2nd rounder at it a year too soon.

We'll have an ILB corps of Wilson, Mauga, March, and Alexander and DJ will likely return midway through the 2017 season. You're throwing a 1st at it too soon.

This draft really is the perfect opportunity to throw high resources at QB and DL. Dorsey will almost certainly draft DL first, at the risk of losing Poe and Howard after 2017. Though, if he somehow signs Poe, which you've projected, I think that makes CB priority 1B (with QBotF at 1A).

I disagree, so I'll break this into parts.

1. IF Hali doesn't retire, I'd be extremely surprised. He's definitely lost more than a step at this point and he's been making very marginal contributions. I really don't think his knees hold up another season. I don't think you count on him for much if he does stick around one more year.

Nicholas is very undersized and may be a very situational player most of his career. I'm not writing him off yet, but I don't have high hopes that he'll ever amount to much more than a special teams guy that might give you a few snaps a game in relief duty.

I think we've seen what a detriment it can be to not have adequate depth, and I think you're grasping at straws thinking there is much more there than Ford and Houston. We've got Ford locked up for 2 more seasons if KC exercises his option, which is a perfect amount of time to develop a guy behind him. If Ford keeps posting 10+ sack seasons, I doubt they'll pay Houston 20 million per and pay Ford.

So, quality depth and the future in mind, I am confident in defending an OLB pick. Truth be told, I was hoping Dimick would be a guy that would be kind of a sleeper that you could get as a mid-rounder, but he absolutely shit on guys once again this year and he's no secret any longer. His draft stock will soar in the off-season.

2. Thinking DJ will return on the playing field might just be a bit more premature than any draft pick I prognosticate. All signs point to him being done. He's going to be 35 years old coming off his 2nd Achilles tear. If you thought he lost a step after his first tear, he's going to look like a tortoise after the second. I wouldn't count on him every playing again.

Mauga is a second rate defender everyone here loved to bag on and couldn't wait for the Chiefs to replace, but he is okay against the run. From what I understand, 2017 is a void option on Mauga's contract, so we'll see what even happens there. It is very possible Mauga isn't back, and even if he is why defend his starting position?

Ramik Wilson has shown some promise, but he's appeared to be a huge liability against the run so far. I don't think you can say, with an honest face, that he's your bell cow at ILB. He might be serviceable, but he's not the face of the defense and he's not a tone setter. D.J. Alexander hasn't flashed anything yet that even remotely suggests he's more than a nice special teams guy.

So, I'm trying to figure out who you're really pinning your hopes to at ILB. I mean, there are guys here to fill roles. There aren't guys here to be difference makers. KC could use a true difference maker that can stuff the run on the inside. There are several A quality ILBs in this draft and KC would be wise to choose one of them.

3. This is not a quality QB draft. To have any hopes of 1st round potential players, there needs to be several Junior declarations. History has shown that Juniors seldom fair well, especially early in their careers. Good thing for KC is that they'd have time to develop one. The negative is that the few Juniors that do show plus traits will likely get snapped up by QB needy teams much earlier than they should. Good luck with spending early resources on a QB.

I don't think there is a 1st round defensive tackle that makes sense for KC. Closest would be Lotulelei, but Dorsey hasn't shown the desire to take short armed players with any picks. I think the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds will have some value at the position. I do agree with you that Dorsey takes a couple defensive lineman in this draft, but I don't expect that to be the 1st or 2nd round necessarily.

Cornerback might be your best argument in round 1, as value and need kind of align there. Guys like Adoree Jackson, Cordrea Tankersley, Cam Sutton, and Gareon Conley all make some sense at the end of the first. So far, KC appears to have a need to find a #2 CB opposite Peters. Value appears to go deep at CB in this draft though, well into the 3rd round.

[RunKC]

CB is so strong. Not sure if Dorsey would pass that kinda talent at CB. Imagine that paired with Peters?

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by RunKC

CB is so strong. Not sure if Dorsey would pass that kinda talent at CB. Imagine that paired with Peters?

Awuzie is as good at CB on the field as anyone in this draft.

[Saccopoo]

Utah's Tim Patrick is a better option than Pascal.

[kcchiefsus]

I know Dorsey/Reid like to draft a QB every year, but personally I would rather use the pick on someone who is more likely to stick on the roster unless we draft one high in the draft. Until we finally have the balls to grab a QBOTF in the 1st (or 2nd) I'd rather use our available resources on someone who could at the very least contribute on special teams. We've had enough of nobodies like Murray and Hogan.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Utah's Tim Patrick is a better option than Pascal.

Of course he is, honey. Of course he is,

[Mecca]

Let's be honest here if he falls Watson is a pretty good fit for the Chiefs offense, he'd get roughly 2 years before he had to play and Smith's to the point that we need to think about someone to take over soon.

Overall this is a really important draft for a lot of reasons but finding a real QB that can take the job is super important.