KU ***** Official 2017-2018 Kansas Basketball Repository Thread ***** - Page 122

saphojunkie · 09:44 AM

**** the elite 8. Final Four or bust, baby.

Will update as people declare for the draft/transfer/commit

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Kansas 2017 Summer Tour - Italy

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Prison Bitch · 02-14-2018, 07:26 AM

So it's not a crapshoot then.

By the way you're also wrong on the NFL. Wild card teams have won it in 05, 07, 10, 11. It's more of a "crapshoot" than March

SupDock · 02-14-2018, 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Easy enough to look up.

2002: 4 (Maryland)
2003: 20 (Syracuse)
2004: 5 (UConn)
2005: 2 (UNC)
2006: 6 (Florida)
2007: 3 (Florida)
2008: 1 (Kansas)
2009: 3 (UNC)
2010: 2 (Duke)
2011: 15 (UConn)
2012: 1 (Kentucky)
2013: 1 (Louisville)
2014: 12 (UConn)
2015: 6 (Duke)
2016: 7 (Villanova)
2017: 3 (UNC)

Best team going into the tournament has won three times in the past 16 years in it (18.8% success rate). If it walks like a duck...

I interpret this data to mean it is a crap shoot. Well, not a crapshoot but a lot of randomness and "madness" involved. Not saying that's a bad thing though

If it was a best of 3 series starting in the elite 8, how many of these do you think would be different, and better reflect which teams were ranked highest in the pretournament rankings?

BWillie · 02-14-2018, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Myth. The title winner is nearly always a favorite. Pomeroy final ranking for the champ:

2002: 3
2003: 8
2004: 2
2005: 1
2006: 1
2007: 2
2008: 1
2009: 1
2010: 1
2011: 10
2012: 1
2013: 1
2014: 15
2015: 3
2016: 1
2017: 3

Uconn is the outlier in 2011 and 2014. Else, those numbers don't resemble a "crapshoot" at all.

So you realize the Pomeroy rankings dramatically changes from the start of the NCAA Tournament, to the end , right?

Prison Bitch · 02-14-2018, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

So you realize the Pomeroy rankings dramatically changes from the start of the NCAA Tournament, to the end , right?

That terrible argument has already been rebutted.

RaidersOftheCellar · 02-14-2018, 10:20 AM

NFL playoffs are more of a crapshoot than March Madness? Is that why the same f***ing team represents the AFC in the Super Bowl every year, while you have 50 huge upsets every year in March? Brilliant take.

Mr. Plow · 02-14-2018, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Easy enough to look up.

2002: 4 (Maryland)
2003: 20 (Syracuse)
2004: 5 (UConn)
2005: 2 (UNC)
2006: 6 (Florida)
2007: 3 (Florida)
2008: 1 (Kansas)
2009: 3 (UNC)
2010: 2 (Duke)
2011: 15 (UConn)
2012: 1 (Kentucky)
2013: 1 (Louisville)
2014: 12 (UConn)
2015: 6 (Duke)
2016: 7 (Villanova)
2017: 3 (UNC)

Best team going into the tournament has won three times in the past 16 years in it (18.8% success rate). If it walks like a duck...

Strange. I thought the best team always won.

KC_Connection · 02-14-2018, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupDock

I interpret this data to mean it is a crap shoot. Well, not a crapshoot but a lot of randomness and "madness" involved. Not saying that's a bad thing though

Good or bad, it's just the nature of a 68 team single elimination tournament. You're going to get some very random outcomes sometimes and even the very best teams are exposed in such a format.

Quote:

If it was a best of 3 series starting in the elite 8, how many of these do you think would be different, and better reflect which teams were ranked highest in the pretournament rankings?

Best teams would win a bit more often. Quite often even the best teams have one bad game over the course of six games (think KU/UNI 2010 when 2010 KU was one of the best teams we've seen over the past decade or so). If you could have that bad game in a Bo3 series instead, it would help.

Prison Bitch · 02-14-2018, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupDock

I interpret this data to mean it is a crap shoot. Well, not a crapshoot but a lot of randomness and "madness" involved. Not saying that's a bad thing though

There's a lot of confusion over the words crapshoot and coin flip. When KU is 2 overall and plays Nova who is 3 overall in the 2016 EE, and the point spread is KU -1, there's a 52% chance KU wins. A coin flip. Deep into the Tourney with the best teams, the spreads are often so narrow they become coin flips.

But they're not "crapshoots". That would be low seeds making the FF at a regular basis, which doesn't happen.

Put it this way: Kentucky 2015 was 39-0, but was only favored -3 (Sagarin) over Arizona and -4 over Dook and Wisconsin. Those are very narrow margins.

Quote:

If it was a best of 3 series starting in the elite 8, how many of these do you think would be different, and better reflect which teams were ranked highest in the pretournament rankings?

Nobody would watch.

Chief Pagan · 02-14-2018, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

NFL playoffs are more of a crapshoot than March Madness? Is that why the same f***ing team represents the AFC in the Super Bowl every year, while you have 50 huge upsets every year in March? Brilliant take.

Agreed.

The #1 seed has to win 2 games at home and one at a neutral site.

It would also be e,asier for the best team if they could play the first 5 games at home before going to a neutral site for the championship.

KCTitus · 02-14-2018, 09:24 PM

Crapshoot or not...I'm glad that KU won their biggest game of the year, in Ames. I looked and didnt see our friend Rust post after the 'big game' about how this was the year or not. I guess next year is the year, then.

I cannot think of a weaker team that Self has put together than this year. Maybe not weak, but unbalanced.

**Bearcat** · 02-15-2018, 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

So it's not a crapshoot then.

By the way you're also wrong on the NFL. Wild card teams have won it in 05, 07, 10, 11. It's more of a "crapshoot" than March

JFC.

RaidersOftheCellar · 02-15-2018, 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Agreed.

The #1 seed has to win 2 games at home and one at a neutral site.

It would also be e,asier for the best team if they could play the first 5 games at home before going to a neutral site for the championship.

Not to mention the games are much longer, therefore flukery is way less likely. Especially at home. Imagine KU's tourney record if they'd played every game til the title in Allen Fieldhouse. And of course it's much more likely to have an off game when playing twice as many games.

Having the better QB correlates to playoff wins the vast majority of the time. But having the best player on the court in CBB means squat. Durant was probably the best college player in the last 20 years and had pretty solid talent around him, yet they ended with a mediocre record and were bounced in the second round.

The top teams in CBB are subject to the unpredictable nature of the one n done era and constant turnover of top talent year to year, whereas all you need is Tom Brady and 21 chimps with pads to guarantee an AFC championship 20 years in a row.

KU would have about 10 titles with a format comparable to the NFL playoffs.

**Baby Lee** · 02-15-2018, 03:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Not to mention the games are much longer, therefore flukery is way less likely. Especially at home. Imagine KU's tourney record if they'd played every game til the title in Allen Fieldhouse. And of course it's much more likely to have an off game when playing twice as many games.

Having the better QB correlates to playoff wins the vast majority of the time. But having the best player on the court in CBB means squat. Durant was probably the best college player in the last 20 years and had pretty solid talent around him, yet they ended with a mediocre record and were bounced in the second round.

Also, the top teams in CBB are subject to the unpredictable nature of the one n done era, with constant turnover of top talent year to year, whereas all you need is Tom Brady and 21 chimps with pads to guarantee an AFC championship 20 years in a row.

KU would have about 10 titles with a format comparable to the NFL playoffs.

- OK I'll bite, who's the 20 year starter for KU?

RaidersOftheCellar · 02-15-2018, 04:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

- OK I'll bite, who's the 20 year starter for KU?

Well, the point was that the best team is much less likely to go deep or win it all when not playing every game til the SB at home, playing much shorter games, twice as many games, etc. It's FAR more likely that a good shooting team will go cold once in 6 games than a good QB will throw ducks for 60 minutes. Or a good defense allowing 45 points.

But now that you mention it, imagine if Frank Mason had about 15 more years of eligibility?

Seriously though, can you even imagine KU's final four total if the one seeds all played home games through the regional finals?

**Buehler445** · 02-15-2018, 04:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

- OK I'll bite, who's the 20 year starter for KU?

Ellis

02-14-2018, 07:26 AM	#1816
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	So it's not a crapshoot then. By the way you're also wrong on the NFL. Wild card teams have won it in 05, 07, 10, 11. It's more of a "crapshoot" than March
Posts: 87,025

02-14-2018, 10:20 AM	#1820
RaidersOftheCellar MVP Join Date: Sep 2016 Location: Lawrence, KS Casino cash: $3160400	NFL playoffs are more of a crapshoot than March Madness? Is that why the same f***ing team represents the AFC in the Super Bowl every year, while you have 50 huge upsets every year in March? Brilliant take.
Posts: 14,648	2 0

02-14-2018, 09:24 PM	#1825
KCTitus Archivist Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: The Ethernet Casino cash: $9902732	Crapshoot or not...I'm glad that KU won their biggest game of the year, in Ames. I looked and didnt see our friend Rust post after the 'big game' about how this was the year or not. I guess next year is the year, then. I cannot think of a weaker team that Self has put together than this year. Maybe not weak, but unbalanced. __________________ Anything you post on this BB can and will be used against you...
Posts: 26,192