How I see the offseason (with cap implications)

[kccrow]

Chiefs Free Agents - Must Re-Sign

OLB Justin Houston - Give Houston a deal around $14 million per to be the highest paid OLB in the NFL
OC Rodney Hudson - Give Hudson a deal around $3.5 million per, putting him in the top 10 for Centers in the NFL.
DE Allen Bailey - Give Bailey a deal around $1.5 million per putting him around 20th in terms of starting 3-4 defensive ends in the NFL.
DE Kevin Vickerson - Give Vickerson a deal around $1.5 million per, putting him around 20th in terms of starting 3-4 defensive ends in the NFL.
CB Chris Owens - Give Owens a deal at $870,000, putting him at the vet minimum for 7th year players in the NFL.
CB Ron Parker - Give Parker a deal at around $1.50 million per, putting him at the top of the tier 3 CBs in the NFL (65th) and in the middle of the tier 2 safeties (48th) or so.
ILB Josh Mauga - Give Mauga a deal around $940,000, putting him at the bottom of starting NFL linebackers (around 48th) but above vet min (870,000 for him).
LS Thomas Gafford - Sign Gafford at the vet minimum of $870,000 for his tenure.
RT Ryan Harris - Harris has earned a re-signing so far, give him a deal worth $1.2 per or so, putting him at the bottom of starting RTs in the NFL.
S Kelcie McCray - Sign McCray at vet minimum of $660,000
OLB Josh Martin - Sign Martin at vet minimum of $660,000
TE Demetrius Harris - Sign Harris at vet minimum of $660,000

Total of these signings = $27,860,000
Cap Hits = $158,928,172 (18,928,172 over)

Chiefs Restructuring

OLB Tamba Hali - Offer Hali to take his 2015 salary, roster bonus, and workout bonuses, totaling $9 million and make them a signing bonus on a 3 year extension (2015-16-17). Give Hali the vet minimum salary of 970,000 in 2015. His prorated old signing bonus money of just over 2.9 million will have to be added to his new signing bonus and prorated over the 3 years, giving him a new bonus hit of $3,988,235 per and a cap hit of $4,958,235 in 2015, which remains on par with the top 15 3-4 OLBs in the NFL while saving the Chiefs $6.5 million against the cap.

Cap Hits = $152,421,701 (12,421,701 over)

Chiefs Cuts

QB Chase Daniel - Cap Savings of $3.8 million
RB Cyrus Gray - Cap Savings of $668,500
WR A.J. Jenkins - Cap Savings of $1,337,390
WR Donnie Avery - Cap Savings of $3,550,000
DE Mike DeVito - Cap Savings of $4,000,000 (give injury settlement)
TE Sean McGrath - Cap Savings of $585,000 (currently showing against cap but retirement voids base)
TE Anthony Fasano - Cap Savings of $1,975,000
ILB Derrick Johnson - Cap Savings of $5,250,000 (give injury settlement)

Total Savings = $21,165,890 (Dead Money Created = $5,176,918)
Cap Hits = $131,255,811 ($8,744,189 under = enough to sign draft class)

Cap Rollover from 2014 = $5,417,020
FB Anthony Sherman was extended, approximately $2,333,333 in 2015 reduces effective cap rollover to $3,083,687. Could be used on a couple low-level free agents.


Let Walk...

OG Mike McGlynn
OG Jeff Linkenbach
S Kurt Coleman
WR Junior Hemmingway
WR Frankie Hammond
S Daniel Sorenson
LB Dezman Moses
RB Joe McKnight

Obviously cap accuracy could be slightly off, but it should be very close. There will be turnover of some low-level contracts I'm sure, and some signings of new ones.

How I'd see the roster going into FA/Draft

QB Alex Smith
QB Aaron Murray
QB Tyler Bray

RB Jamaal Charles
RB Knile Davis
RB De'Anthony Thomas

FB Anthony Sherman

WR Dwayne Bowe
WR Albert Wilson

TE Travis Kelce
TE Demetrius Harris

OT Eric Fisher
OT Ryan Harris
OT Donald Stephenson

OG Jeff Allen
OG Zach Fulton
OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff

OC Rodney Hudson
OC Eric Kush

DE Allen Bailey
DE Jaye Howard
DE Kevin Vickerson
DE Mike Catapano
DE Vance Walker

NT Dontari Poe

OLB Dee Ford
OLB Frank Zombo
OLB Josh Martin
OLB Justin Houston
OLB Tamba Hali

ILB James Michael Johnson
ILB Joe Mays
ILB Josh Mauga

CB Chris Owens
CB Jamell Fleming
CB Marcus Cooper
CB Phillip Gaines
CB Ron Parker
CB Sean Smith

S Eric Berry
S Husain Abdullah
S Kelcie McCray
S Sanders Commings

K Cairo Santos
P Dustin Colquitt
LS Thomas Gafford

And the losses, summarized...

QB Chase Daniel

RB Cyrus Gray
RB Joe McKnight

WR A.J. Jenkins
WR Donnie Avery
WR Junior Hemingway
WR Frankie Hammond

TE Anthony Fasano

OG Mike McGlynn
OG Jeff Linkenbach

DE Mike DeVito

ILB Derrick Johnson

OLB Dezman Moses

S Kurt Coleman
S Daniel Sorensen


What this leaves KC...

46 active players. They need only 7 of their 11 draft picks to make the active roster.

What they appear to need...

WR - 3
TE - 1
OG - 1
OT - 1
ILB - 1

Everything else is shuffling...

[kccrow]

Add in I'd target Jacksonville WR Cecil Shorts with that limited cap space. Can probably be had in the 2 million per range one would hope.

[OldSchool]

Shorts has never been healthy for a full season. He always misses some games.

[DaneMcCloud]

Cutting Daniel while expecting Murray and Bray to be capable backups is ridiculous speculation. Cutting Derrick Johnson, especially before he's completed rehab, is another dumb move.

Hali's restructure? $9 million over three years? No way he'll accept that. Why hasn't Eric Berry been traded? Is his $8.1 million dollar salary really necessary?

Why are you cutting a dirt cheap developmental safety in Sorenson? Aren't the Chiefs allowed to develop players?

Why wouldn't you attempt to sign Joe McKnight after his amazing performance in Miami? Are you saying there isn't room on the roster a youngish play maker like him?

The Chiefs desperately need to upgrade their backup OLB's. Zombo's an aging special teams players and Martin has never done a thing, yet you keep him over McKnight?

[O.city]

I'd like to see them really invest in good offer a I've lineman. It's not flashy, but with all our picks, really solidify the trenches.

Obviously we need more explosiveness outside on offense too though

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Cutting Daniel while expecting Murray and Bray to be capable backups is ridiculous speculation. Cutting Derrick Johnson, especially before he's completed rehab, is another dumb move.

Hali's restructure? $9 million over three years? No way he'll accept that. Why hasn't Eric Berry been traded? Is his $8.1 million dollar salary really necessary?

Why are you cutting a dirt cheap developmental safety in Sorenson? Aren't the Chiefs allowed to develop players?

Why wouldn't you attempt to sign Joe McKnight after his amazing performance in Miami? Are you saying there isn't room on the roster a youngish play maker like him?

The Chiefs desperately need to upgrade their backup OLB's. Zombo's an aging special teams players and Martin has never done a thing, yet you keep him over McKnight?

1. Chase Daniel is scheduled to make 4.8 million next year as a backup. Read that again. He's gone, the Chiefs need that cap space. Never understood the love affair people have with an overpaid, mediocre, backup QB that likely wont' see the field and certainly is unlikely to save the Chiefs if Alex goes down. What I've seen of Murray, I'm okay with him as the #2 heading into his 2nd year.

2. Cutting Johnson is a move that is made in lieu of cutting either Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Sean Smith, Jamaal Charles, or Dwayne Bowe OR letting Justin Houston walk. The Chiefs need the cap space if they are intent on re-signing Houston and they have proved to be okay without Johnson and he's one of the oldest on that list. Add in the fact that players are never 100% back to usual until two years removed from an Achilles, and it makes the choice even easier.

3. Hali is looking straight down the pipe of restructure or get cut. If he chooses to get cut, he gets whatever he can on the open market. It isn't likely other teams still see Hali in the top 15 OLBs in the NFL, so he'll be hard pressed to get a contract anywhere near 5 million per season elsewhere. In this case, he still makes as much money as he otherwise would in 2015, only difference is he gets it as a signing bonus. If you think he won't accept that, I'd say you're very, very wrong. Hali isn't what he used to be, but Dee Ford looks light years from being ready, which is the only reason I chose restructure instead of cut.

4. I very seriously thought about trading or cutting Eric Berry, but I'm not certain that is the best idea. The Chiefs did get by without him, but Abdullah isn't getting younger. Berry is an asset, and the going rate for top safeties like Berry is right at what he's set to make in 2015. If anything, its his salary THIS season that is far beyond what he deserves. I'm not opposed to the options of trade/cut when it comes to Berry, but I don't think its the smartest move.

5. Joe McKnight... one performance does not make a player. If he can be had at the vet minimum, then I'm not opposed to bringing him back in. I'm more inclined to see if West can make the active roster next year and bring in some low dollar competition.

6. I'm not worried about Zombo. As far as Martin goes, he's shown some flashes. I do agree that the Chiefs could use more competition, but that doesn't mean I'm going to throw Martin away for one good game from a journeyman running back that is a dime a dozen.

[Hoover]

Chase Daniel is a non-luxury that we can not afford next season. I'd rather give Murray a chance to be the guy. Is it risky? Kinda, but Alex is pretty dependable and frankly if he goes down I'd rather see a guy who could be the future, than a stop gap get the snaps.

[DaneMcCloud]

The salary cap will increase at least $10 million next year, in addition to restructures and cuts.

Stop with the nonsense.

[Direckshun]

This is super entertaining, thanks for doing it.

I don't like them re-signing Harris too much. I want Stephenson to get a year in. I can understand why you did, however.

Also, I think the Chiefs should make a run at TE Lance Kendricks.

[jonzie04]

I like it except cutting dj. Also don't think were going to get bailey for 1.5m

[spanky 52]

Bailey, Hudson, Mauga and Parker are not going to settle for the monies you've listed. If they keep Houston, Hali is gone. Have no problem cutting Daniel. As much as I like DJ, with that injury and his age, he's gone. DeVito's money goes to Bailey.

[mszymko]

Would really like to see us keep both Houston and Hali. Lately I'm wondering if we don't trade Berry, maybe to move up in the draft? Cecil Shorts? Meh, ok. But if we go that route I'd like to see us get a Star receiver in the first round of the draft. Maybe that means we pkg picks and possibly Berry to climb up into the top of the draft.

Bowe, Stud rookie WR, Cecil Shorts... theoretically looks like a respectable NFL WR Core.



Anyways... thank you for your analysis, good read!

[RealSNR]

I can't remember the last time the Chiefs had this many contract year players performing so well.

This is a refreshing problem to have.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

The salary cap will increase at least $10 million next year, in addition to restructures and cuts.

Stop with the nonsense.

It increases 7 million from everything I've seen, from 133 million to 140 millon. This is accounted for in my analysis.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by spanky 52

Bailey, Hudson, Mauga and Parker are not going to settle for the monies you've listed. If they keep Houston, Hali is gone. Have no problem cutting Daniel. As much as I like DJ, with that injury and his age, he's gone. DeVito's money goes to Bailey.

I think you might be grossly overestimating NFL contracts and values by position, especially in relation to the caliber these players are at. I could be wrong, but I can't seem to relate to your statement on "settling for the monies listed."

I put Hudson in the top 10 centers in the NFL in terms of salary. He'd be on par with Scott Wells, which is fairly accurate compared to skill. The max I'd pay Hudson is 4.5 million or I'd let him walk, honestly. That would put him on par with Nick Hardwick, and I think Hardwick is better. He's solid, but he isn't on the level of a Jason Kelce, which brings you to the next tier.

Bailey and Vickerson would both be at about 20th for NFL DEs, and neither have proved more than a single season of value at the position, which means other teams won't pay them in the top half either. They would be on par with Brett Kiesel and Cameron Heyward of Pittsburgh, which is fairly relative to their skill sets at this point. I might would pay a bit more to get Bailey back and let Vickerson go if push came to shove, but I'm not sure either player has proven to be worth more yet.

Mauga could be a guy that maybe costs a bit more, but he isn't a great starter. Akeem Jordan signed with the Skins for 920,000 this year, and I don't see Mauga as any sort of upgrade, do you? Both are solid, what you see is what you get, linebackers that you just don't throw the Brinks truck at.

Parker has never been a starter in any capacity before this year, and the salary I listed is in the range of starting 2nd safeties and 3rd CBs, which is basically what he is.

I don't think any of these guys are going to command enormous contracts, and those that think they should will probably walk.