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Old 03-19-2014, 12:19 PM  
RealSNR RealSNR is offline
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Is 2016 a breaking point for this team?

I was messing around on Rotoworld looking at how long we've got guys under contract. In terms of losing our own players, the 2014 free agency season is basically finished. All we have left is Kendrick Lewis, and it's apparent that we're not bringing him back. So I wanted to see how we were doing for 2015. It's not that good, but it's known from the most recent press conference that Dorsey is currently talking through and working on extensions with Alex Smith and Justin Houston.

Let's take Direckshun's assumptions that he made in his most recent mock draft:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
1. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 6 years, $90m (when you break the numbers down, it will actually break down to 4 years, $60m, with something like $35m guaranteed), and S Eric Berry 6 years, $45m ($23m guaranteed). They will extend Justin Houston at some point during the 2015 season.

2. The Chiefs let walk: WR Kyle Williams, S Kendrick Lewis

3. The Chiefs sign WR/KR Jacoby Ford (Raiders) to a 1 year, $1m deal.
These are the Chiefs who played snaps for the team last year who will become free agents in 2015:

Allen Bailey
Thomas Gafford
Junior Hemingway (Exclusive rights FA)
Rodney Hudson
Rishaw Johnson (RFA)
Josh Martin (Exclusive rights FA)
Dezman Moses (RFA)
Ron Parker
Anthony Sherman

That's nothing to shake a stick at, but this group also doesn't have anybody particularly pertinent on it who would require a lot of money. A guy like Anthony Sherman might ask for a contract more expensive than we're willing to offer, so I think he would walk. Rodney Hudson is supposedly going to be replaced by Eric Kush very soon, so I guess he walks as well. Nobody knows if Hemingway, Martin, and Moses will even be on the team next year. That basically leaves us with Bailey, Gafford, Johnson, and Parker. It would be great to keep any of those players, and they should all be pretty cheap with the possible exception of Bailey.

Direckshun's plan sets us up pretty well into 2015. We'd be spending barely any money to keep our own players. Really, the only guy I can see as a MUST keep is Gafford, and that should be a cheap deal.

Now what about 2016?

Jeff Allen
Donnie Avery
Tyler Bray (RFA)
Jamaal Charles
Chase Daniel
Mike DeVito
Cyrus Gray
Tamba Hali
Jaye Howard
AJ Jenkins
Derrick Johnson
Joe Mays
Sean McGrath
Dontari Poe
Sean Smith
Donald Stephenson
Rokevious Watkins
Frank Zombo

Ehhhhhhhhghggghhhhhh........

You can assume that Charles, DeVito, Hali, and DJ will be much older and feebler at this point, but they're still critical cogs to how this team currently runs. Yes, we'll (hopefully) be acquiring more playmakers through the draft, and yes, there will be some players currently on the team who break out into solid starting players and beyond. But that's still a lot of dudes. Even if you want to argue that current starters like Allen, Avery, Fasano, and Smith would hopefully be replaced by fresher and better players, that means we're still devoting a lot of resources to getting this team "right" instead of planning for the future.

We'll basically be depending on getting 3-4 starters per draft in 2014 and 2015. That's kind of a lot to expect.

I would hope that we could keep Charles around beyond 2016 if he still has gas left for not all that much money. Same goes for DJ. Hali may wind up being a cap casualty before then. We're looking at two starters on the offensive line (Stephenson and Allen) who will need new deals or replacements. Dontari Poe. ****. Dontari Poe. He's a big man, and he'll need a big deal. Daniel and Bray... I mean, who ****ing cares, right? But we still will likely need to spend draft stock on replacements in some way. We need as many draft picks as we can get these next two years. And I'm even looking at Mays, Jenkins, DeVito...

Basically, the stakes are pretty ****ing high by the time we get to 2016. If Dorsey does his homework these next two years, we'll be pretty okay, I think. If he doesn't...

Blow up the ship? Start again?

Last edited by RealSNR; 03-19-2014 at 12:25 PM..
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:22 PM   #2
The Pest The Pest is offline
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I think Hali will be released after next year unless he agrees to take a paycut.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:29 PM   #3
Strongside Strongside is offline
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Bro, if there was a breaking point for this team, we'd have had it at some point since 1969.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:29 PM   #4
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My guess is (and it is only a guess) that you would find a similar breakdown for everyone in the league. Not necessarily 2016, but I would bet every franchise has a breaking point looming in the books every off-season, if you looked.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:29 PM   #5
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It is imperative that Reid/Dorsey find a replacement for DJ.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:30 PM   #6
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2016 will absolutely be the year this team needs to be Super Bowl-competitive in order to save this current regime.

If they are not competitive by this date, it's best to blow it up and start over.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:31 PM   #7
a pp roach a pp roach is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strongside View Post
Bro, if there was a breaking point for this team, we'd have had it at some point since 1969.


yep
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:31 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
2016 will absolutely be the year this team needs to be Super Bowl-competitive in order to save this current regime.

If they are not competitive by this date, it's best to blow it up and start over.
That's not counting the head coach and GM, is it?
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:32 PM   #9
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The smart thing to do is to use the 2014, 2015, and most of the 2016 draft to stock that 2016 roster.

Make a couple white-chip moves in 2015 free agency. Bring in a key blue-chipper or two in 2016, and make your push.

Keyest cog in the whole thing, of course, is drafting a QB in the 1st round in 2016, or at least having an excellent prospect in the wings by the time 2016 is done, because Smith will be twilighting.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:33 PM   #10
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SNR View Post
That's not counting the head coach and GM, is it?
I would definitely put them near the chopping block. Too soon to say if they would definitively need to be on it.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:42 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pestilence View Post
It is imperative that Reid/Dorsey find a replacement for DJ.
Bowe, Flowers, Charles and Hali will fall off a cliff before DJ

DJ has that London Fletcher/Ray Lewis longevity to him. We need a replacement OLB and a new freak playmaker on offense at WR or RB asap

basically we will need a whole new foundation in 2 years once we fully say goodbye to the 2008 class
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:43 PM   #12
RealSNR RealSNR is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I would definitely put them near the chopping block. Too soon to say if they would definitively need to be on it.
God, have you ever wondered why the **** Marvin Lewis still has a job as a head coach in this league?

Sometimes if I'm taking a really nasty poo, I think about Marvin Lewis and how he has somehow survived this long and become such a blatant exception to phrase "NFL stands for Not For Long." It makes no sense to me. And while I do some of my best thinking in the bathroom, even the 20-30 minute diarrhea sessions don't provide a sufficient enough cognitive boost for me to wrap my head around that one.
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Old 03-19-2014, 01:02 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SNR View Post
God, have you ever wondered why the **** Marvin Lewis still has a job as a head coach in this league?

Sometimes if I'm taking a really nasty poo, I think about Marvin Lewis and how he has somehow survived this long and become such a blatant exception to phrase "NFL stands for Not For Long." It makes no sense to me. And while I do some of my best thinking in the bathroom, even the 20-30 minute diarrhea sessions don't provide a sufficient enough cognitive boost for me to wrap my head around that one.
I have, and I can never figure it out either.
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Old 03-19-2014, 01:04 PM   #14
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2014 is a breaking point. Anytime we play legit teams we get crushed.
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Old 03-19-2014, 01:05 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
The smart thing to do is to use the 2014, 2015, and most of the 2016 draft to stock that 2016 roster.

Make a couple white-chip moves in 2015 free agency. Bring in a key blue-chipper or two in 2016, and make your push.

Keyest cog in the whole thing, of course, is drafting a QB in the 1st round in 2016, or at least having an excellent prospect in the wings by the time 2016 is done, because Smith will be twilighting.
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