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Old 11-03-2016, 09:11 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository ***

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

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Old 02-17-2017, 09:07 AM   #2161
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What's so great about Cuthberts bat? 94 wRC+ was same as Dyson, whom everyone in here rants about being overrated and "exposed" the longer he's in the lineup. Obv Cuthbert is young and his aging curve suggests he will be league Avg this year but let's not call him Robbie Alomar just yet. Whit Merrified was at 89 wRC+


So let's talk about that defense. Whit was outstanding, saving 10 runs over a full season. Cuthbert -7 at 3B. How was that constructed? It was all range, all -7 runs. His arm (which looks great from the eye test) was neutral value.


Whit? All his fielding value came from, yup, his range. Also shows up in his good baserunning stats. Cuthbert has poor baserunning stats.


Net: Cuthbert likely has no ability to play 2B, he won't get to many balls, we WILL give up runs that he is doubtful to replicate at the plate, and Whit gives you what he does if 2016 happens again for both
He was a rookie. Unless you're Eric Hosmer, or a Frenchy type who swings at everything, you tend to improve at the plate from your rookie year, especially if you have the plate discipline that Cutty had in the minors.

I'd look at his numbers until about mid-August (when he hit a wall), to see what his potential could be through an entire season. It's likely he adjusts and his patience starts turning into walks (as they did in the Royals system), as he was already seeing more pitches than anyone else on the offense.
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Old 02-17-2017, 09:08 AM   #2162
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
What's so great about Cuthberts bat? 94 wRC+ was same as Dyson, whom everyone in here rants about being overrated and "exposed" the longer he's in the lineup. Obv Cuthbert is young and his aging curve suggests he will be league Avg this year but let's not call him Robbie Alomar just yet. Whit Merrified was at 89 wRC+


So let's talk about that defense. Whit was outstanding, saving 10 runs over a full season. Cuthbert -7 at 3B. How was that constructed? It was all range, all -7 runs. His arm (which looks great from the eye test) was neutral value.


Whit? All his fielding value came from, yup, his range. Also shows up in his good baserunning stats. Cuthbert has poor baserunning stats.


Net: Cuthbert likely has no ability to play 2B, he won't get to many balls, we WILL give up runs that he is doubtful to replicate at the plate, and Whit gives you what he does if 2016 happens again for both

Cuthbert is intriguing if his bat is what it was through August. The KC Baseball Pro clue thinks he may have been injured sometime in late August (around the 20th) as KC had an off day, Cuthbert played the next day, and then was held out the day after... this timing corresponds with his numbers nose-diving from a very nice .290/.330/.450 line to his closing line. He also struggled with throws from 3B from that point.

It's possible it also was just him hitting the rookie wall or being exposed offensively.

If he could play neutral defense at 2B and produce that offensive line - .290/.340/.450 with 15-20 HR - that's a very plus bat at 2B and likely makes up for the defensive hit you take.

If it doesn't work, I'm fine with going with Merrifield or Colon (who spent the offseason working out with Gordon, apparently).

Merrifield's D and range would be a nice bonus, and I think he'd have a good chance to be a .275/.325/.375 bat - which would be around league average/replacement level for 2B - and plus defender.

So... it's a question of whether Cuthbert can be a 2-2.5 oWAR/0- -0.5 dWAR guy or if Merrifield can provide the inverse of those numbers.

Either way, I think KC can end up with roughly a 2-win situation at 2B, which would be nice.


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Old 02-17-2017, 09:10 AM   #2163
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
He was a rookie. Unless you're Eric Hosmer, or a Frenchy type who swings at everything, you tend to improve at the plate from your rookie year, especially if you have the plate discipline that Cutty had in the minors.



I'd look at his numbers until mid-August (until he hit a wall), to see what his potential could be through an entire season. It's likely he adjusts and his patience starts turning into walks (as they did in the Royals system), as he was already seeing more pitches than anyone else on the offense.

He was .294/.341/.446 through August 22. Numbers nose-dived from there.


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Old 02-17-2017, 09:14 AM   #2164
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Yes he did trail off a lot. Plus he had a month of top-end numbers at AAA.
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Old 02-17-2017, 09:15 AM   #2165
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gotta agree with PB a bit ... Cuthbert doesn't impress me in any capacity. Don't understand the hype. He's OK.
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Old 02-17-2017, 09:36 AM   #2166
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For most of the year Cuthbert had a great approach and hit a ton of line drives. He didn't have any huge holes in his swing (like Gordon on a slider down and in) and made some solid plays at third. He did make some weird errors on routine plays, usually throwing.
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Old 02-17-2017, 10:08 AM   #2167
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gotta agree with PB a bit ... Cuthbert doesn't impress me in any capacity. Don't understand the hype. He's OK.

Pros:
Professional ABs and approach
League average walk rate as a rookie indicAtes potential for better
Plus Arm for 3B (would be plus-plus at 2B)
45-50 power

Cons:
Slow (affects base running and range)
Doesn't have natural loft in swing (raw power is 60-65, but plays down because swing is line-drive oriented)
Small sample size

I didn't see enough to trust him as the everyday DH, but I saw enough to be optimistic he could be a solid MLB regular with potential for better.


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Old 02-17-2017, 10:20 AM   #2168
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In all fairness, GMDM built the team, not Ned.

But Ned DOES seem to really know how to manage a clubhouse, keep guys loose, and the players do all seem to genuinely love playing for him. That counts for a lot, as far as I'm concerned.
You're right, I could have stated that better. GMDM provided the parts. Ned put them together.
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Old 02-17-2017, 10:23 AM   #2169
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we've gotten really lucky for years now when it comes to converting failed starters into hoss relievers ... before Hochevar TJ'd himself, he had an outstanding, sensational year as the 8th inning guy - then, when he TJ'd himself, we discovered Wade Davis.

Dayton really Ned proofed the bullpen during our run. This year, it seems like we have Kelvin Herrera. Be really interesting to see if get back to having Ned run out Aaron Joakim Crow Soria to lose us game after game without trying to figure something else out all year long.

I'm more of a Maddon kind of guy - he got to the postseason, trusted NOBODY but Chapman ... and took a lot of grief for it because Chapman wore down. So I see what tk13 means when he says you can't just rely on guys like the borgs to throw 5 innings every game ... but, the way I look at it ... in the postseason, if we're going to lose, why not lose with Wade Davis opposed to Jeremy Guthrie?

that's why I was NEVER mad at Ned for pulling Shields to put in Yordano against Moss in that Wild Card game. The hindsight heroes were LIVID. I liked the move, and even said before that game, I thought Yo should be available from the pen. I always thought Yo projected to be more of a Aroldlis than a Pedro. Sad, because with Hammel and Wood I really think Yo could have been our new 8th inning badass Wade Davis. Or keep Herrera in that role and put Yo at closer.

Dude was built to be that elite closer we all love.
I agree, it was easy to second-guess the move after the move failed. It didn't bother me at all when he made the move.
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Old 02-17-2017, 10:45 AM   #2170
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I just watched a few videos of Chelsor hitting. It appears that his initial load/pinch is very good, but he still sometimes bars his arms, especially his left one creating that chopping wood technique that DJ referenced. When he keeps it up with his right arm down and in he drives the ball very well.

I haven't seen any video of him from the minors, but it's apparent that he has been working on "building a house," but reverts to the arm bar on occasion. I noticed the arm bar most frequently when he was fooled on inside pitches creating jam shots the other way. Those blue jays hitters have been so successful crowding the plate expecting the inside (to their position) pitch and keeping the left arm high and right arm down for a while now.

Mantle is probably the best example of it, but Josh Donaldson has been killing with it as well.
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Old 02-17-2017, 10:55 AM   #2171
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I hope I'm wrong about Cheslor ... I just never got the hype. It reminded me of '14 when some wanted Colon to take over at 3rd for a struggling Moose (at the plate).

The dude will make a nice play at 3rd and everyone will be like, "wow, look how good he is!" When the fact of the matter is, Moose is superior to Cheslor in every way ... and I cannot see for the life of me how he translates to being a 2nd baseman ... especially when this board hated Infante who was actually pretty good over at 2nd. It's going to drive people crazy if he plays 2nd base on a defensive level - I promise you that.
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Old 02-17-2017, 12:57 PM   #2172
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If he grew up with the chopping wood approach he is undergoing a Joey Bats type of swing change. He is now picking up his left foot/lowering his left shoulder loading up in a similar fashion. You have to have great balance and a quick bat to do it. Joey Bats appears to be too old to still do it, but Chelsor isn't...

You also have to keep your right elbow in and left arm high. It also helps to crowd the plate and guess inside as you either need to be constantly guessing inside or have exceptionally fast hands. I saw Chelsor several times in great position at contact and several times barring his arms (which won't work with this set up).

Anybody (Duncan) know what his hitting style was in the minors?

Hosmer also tries to get in that same position at impact, but he drops his hands a lot more looping his swing.
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Old 02-17-2017, 01:29 PM   #2173
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It looks like he had an extreme arm bar here in the minors. It gets a little better below, in one of his youtube clips it looks really good.



Here is what a really good one looks like, as much as we dislike him.



Mantle might have been the best with it

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Old 02-17-2017, 01:49 PM   #2174
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You're right, I could have stated that better. GMDM provided the parts. Ned put them together.
I've had discussions about the theory that GMDM "ned-proofed" the team in 2014 and 2015.

Ned can't set a lineup? Give him a lineup that' nearly even 1-8 so he can't screw it up (and even then he insisted on batting Esky at the top).

Ned can't handle a bullpen? Fill it with cyborg arms that will get anyone out.
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Old 02-17-2017, 01:53 PM   #2175
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I've had discussions about the theory that GMDM "ned-proofed" the team in 2014 and 2015.

Ned can't set a lineup? Give him a lineup that' nearly even 1-8 so he can't screw it up (and even then he insisted on batting Esky at the top).

Ned can't handle a bullpen? Fill it with cyborg arms that will get anyone out.
This. So much of this.
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