Football Blake Bortles is the Tom Brady of garbage time.

Direckshun · 08-21-2017, 07:54 AM

Outstanding.

A couple of charts in my next post. Stand by.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-garbage-time/

Blake Bortles Is The Tom Brady Of Garbage Time
By Michael Salfino
Aug. 16, 2017 at 1:02 PM

If the Pro Football Hall of Fame had a special wing for Garbage Time, they’d already be sculpting Blake Bortles’s bust.

On the surface, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ signal-caller fits the profile of a perfectly mediocre NFL quarterback. But the traditional stats don’t show the true Bortles: He is the NFL’s best when the game is basically over. In garbage time — which we define as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, when a team is down multiple scores (9 or more points) — Bortles transforms into the franchise quarterback Jacksonville envisioned when they made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. In these scenarios in the past two seasons, Bortles has completed 78 of 118 for 964 yards with 12 touchdowns. He’s tossed only four picks. His passer rating in these instances is 111. To get a sense of how good that is, Tom Brady’s rating across all of last season was 112.

Since 2015, 20.7 percent of Bortles’s total touchdown passes have come when the fans are heading for the exits. That’s nearly four times the average for the rest of the league. It’s done little to help the fortunes of the Jags, who have won eight games in the last two seasons and failed to come back in any of the 15 where they were trailing big late. So his body of garbage-time work has been meaningless to everyone except his fantasy owners.

The only thing Bortles is as good at as posting garbage-time numbers is creating garbage time with his lackluster play in meaningful time. According to ESPN data, last year when a team was within one score (8 or fewer points) in the first half of games — one of the situations in which the game’s outcome is most uncertain — Bortles was the worst quarterback in football. He completed 96 of 158 passes (60.8 percent) last year for 963 yards and just five touchdowns versus eight picks. His rating in these situations was just 67.6. What’s more, in the past two years, Bortles has thrown only half as many touchdown passes in the first quarter of all games (six) as he threw in the last five minutes of games he had already lost.

Bortles throws more garbage-time passes than anyone, partly as a result of his own crummy play earlier in games. By comparison, Brady has only thrown six garbage-time passes in the last two seasons — or 112 fewer than Bortles — because the Patriots are never losing.

It may seem like any quarterback would be more productive when opponents are easing into a prevent defense and beginning to daydream about their next game. But in the last two seasons, the average non-Bortles QB saw his rating increase only marginally in these scenarios, 2.4 percent. Bortles’s rating jumps 37.9 percent.

Despite Bortles’s ability to excel only when the chips are off the table, the Jaguars picked up his fifth-year option in May, meaning they will pay him $19 million in 2018. The move mystified many NFL observers, but general manager Dave Caldwell and new executive vice president Tom Coughlin rationalized that Bortles’s salary over this year and next will still be below average — two words that Bortles is familiar with.

Bortles is not off to a good start in 2017. He threw five interceptions in one recent practice, including one that was returned for a touchdown in 11-on-11 drills. Another pick 6 on Sunday led to head coach Doug Marrone giving veteran backup Chad Henne (who had no pass attempts last year) a chance with the first team. Not only is the patience of Marrone wearing thin, but the team’s No. 1 receiver, Allen Robinson, is reportedly also growing increasingly frustrated.

Maybe the only way to turn Bortles into an efficient quarterback is to somehow convince him that the game is already lost before it’s even begun.

Direckshun · 08-21-2017, 07:57 AM

Garbage time vs. non-garbage time.

Reerun_KC · 08-21-2017, 08:03 AM

We lived through that before. With Cassel and most recently....

Pasta Little Brioni · 08-21-2017, 08:04 AM

But but but...STATS!!! Throws it deeeeeeeeep.

Reerun_KC · 08-21-2017, 08:16 AM

All we do is win unless it matters then we do what chiefs do

**Buehler445** · 08-21-2017, 08:19 AM

PAChiefsGuy · 08-21-2017, 08:28 AM

Lol... The idiot rico actually was bragging about Blake's stats too.

Quesadilla Joe · 08-21-2017, 08:36 AM

Siemian is in some pretty good company. Should be a really fun season.

Pasta Little Brioni · 08-21-2017, 08:37 AM

Semen just blows for all 4 quarters. Post his numbers the last part of the season.

**loochy** · 08-21-2017, 08:40 AM

Smith isn't the garbage time king I thought he was. He's just about average....which, on second thought, seems right. Average schmaverage.

PAChiefsGuy · 08-21-2017, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loochy

Smith isn't the garbage time king I thought he was. He's just about average....which, on second thought, seems right. Average schmaverage.

The only thing he hasn't been average at the past couple of years is winning games which is the most important stat anyway.

#winning

Reerun_KC · 08-21-2017, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

The only thing he hasn't been average at the past couple of years is winning games which is the most important stat anyway.

#winning

1-3 is #notwinning

**loochy** · 08-21-2017, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

The only thing he hasn't been average at the past couple of years is winning games which is the most important stat anyway.

#winning

rico · 08-21-2017, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Lol... The idiot rico actually was bragging about Blake's stats too.

Bragging? Why would I be bragging? I'm not a Jaguars fan. Unlike you, I'm an actual Chiefs fan.

I am the poster who created a thread about Bortles around the time he was drafted, comparing him to "a sack of shit flying out of a truck." Want me to bump it?!

I simply stated facts. He threw for 36 TD's in 2015 and 23 in 2016. 36 to 23 is a significant dip, and it could be attributed to the change they made in OC's.

Just because Bortles has thrown a large share of garbage time TD's, doesn't excuse your Alex throwing only 15 TD's in a season. And it's not like your Alex is innocent here either. He is an average garbage time QB. Yay.

Try again, squirrel tits.

PAChiefsGuy · 08-21-2017, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

1-3 is #notwinning

Before Smitty got here, when was the last time the Chiefs won a playoff gm?

Quote:

Originally Posted by rico

Bragging? Why would I be bragging? I'm not a Jaguars fan. Unlike you, I'm an actual Chiefs fan.

I am the poster who created a thread about Bortles around the time he was drafted, comparing him to "a sack of shit flying out of a truck." Want me to bump it?!

I simply stated facts. He threw for 36 TD's in 2015 and 23 in 2016. 36 to 23 is a significant dip, and it could be attributed to the change they made in OC's.

Just because Bortles has thrown a large share of garbage time TD's, doesn't excuse your Alex throwing only 15 TD's in a season. And it's not like your Alex is innocent here either. He is an average garbage time QB. Yay.

Try again, squirrel tits.

You are not a Chiefs fan. You are a Mahomesexual/Alex Smith hater. You'd rather the Chiefs lose with Mahomes than win with Smitty. That's not being a fan.

Try again pendejo

08-21-2017, 07:54 AM
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4443447	Blake Bortles is the Tom Brady of garbage time. Outstanding. A couple of charts in my next post. Stand by. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-garbage-time/ Blake Bortles Is The Tom Brady Of Garbage Time By Michael Salfino Aug. 16, 2017 at 1:02 PM If the Pro Football Hall of Fame had a special wing for Garbage Time, they’d already be sculpting Blake Bortles’s bust. On the surface, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ signal-caller fits the profile of a perfectly mediocre NFL quarterback. But the traditional stats don’t show the true Bortles: He is the NFL’s best when the game is basically over. In garbage time — which we define as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, when a team is down multiple scores (9 or more points) — Bortles transforms into the franchise quarterback Jacksonville envisioned when they made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. In these scenarios in the past two seasons, Bortles has completed 78 of 118 for 964 yards with 12 touchdowns. He’s tossed only four picks. His passer rating in these instances is 111. To get a sense of how good that is, Tom Brady’s rating across all of last season was 112. Since 2015, 20.7 percent of Bortles’s total touchdown passes have come when the fans are heading for the exits. That’s nearly four times the average for the rest of the league. It’s done little to help the fortunes of the Jags, who have won eight games in the last two seasons and failed to come back in any of the 15 where they were trailing big late. So his body of garbage-time work has been meaningless to everyone except his fantasy owners. The only thing Bortles is as good at as posting garbage-time numbers is creating garbage time with his lackluster play in meaningful time. According to ESPN data, last year when a team was within one score (8 or fewer points) in the first half of games — one of the situations in which the game’s outcome is most uncertain — Bortles was the worst quarterback in football. He completed 96 of 158 passes (60.8 percent) last year for 963 yards and just five touchdowns versus eight picks. His rating in these situations was just 67.6. What’s more, in the past two years, Bortles has thrown only half as many touchdown passes in the first quarter of all games (six) as he threw in the last five minutes of games he had already lost. Bortles throws more garbage-time passes than anyone, partly as a result of his own crummy play earlier in games. By comparison, Brady has only thrown six garbage-time passes in the last two seasons — or 112 fewer than Bortles — because the Patriots are never losing. It may seem like any quarterback would be more productive when opponents are easing into a prevent defense and beginning to daydream about their next game. But in the last two seasons, the average non-Bortles QB saw his rating increase only marginally in these scenarios, 2.4 percent. Bortles’s rating jumps 37.9 percent. Despite Bortles’s ability to excel only when the chips are off the table, the Jaguars picked up his fifth-year option in May, meaning they will pay him $19 million in 2018. The move mystified many NFL observers, but general manager Dave Caldwell and new executive vice president Tom Coughlin rationalized that Bortles’s salary over this year and next will still be below average — two words that Bortles is familiar with. Bortles is not off to a good start in 2017. He threw five interceptions in one recent practice, including one that was returned for a touchdown in 11-on-11 drills. Another pick 6 on Sunday led to head coach Doug Marrone giving veteran backup Chad Henne (who had no pass attempts last year) a chance with the first team. Not only is the patience of Marrone wearing thin, but the team’s No. 1 receiver, Allen Robinson, is reportedly also growing increasingly frustrated. Maybe the only way to turn Bortles into an efficient quarterback is to somehow convince him that the game is already lost before it’s even begun.
Posts: 59,247

08-21-2017, 07:57 AM	#2
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4443447	Garbage time vs. non-garbage time.
Posts: 59,247

08-21-2017, 08:03 AM	#3
Reerun_KC Rock Chalk Jayhawks! KU!!! Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $8301160	We lived through that before. With Cassel and most recently....
Posts: 934

08-21-2017, 08:04 AM	#4
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $4068880	But but but...STATS!!! Throws it deeeeeeeeep. __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
Posts: 68,306

08-21-2017, 08:16 AM	#5
Reerun_KC Rock Chalk Jayhawks! KU!!! Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $8301160	All we do is win unless it matters then we do what chiefs do
Posts: 934

08-21-2017, 08:19 AM	#6
Buehler445 Supporter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Scott City KS Casino cash: $2404734
Posts: 56,740

08-21-2017, 08:28 AM	#7
PAChiefsGuy Best Body On ChiefsPlanet Join Date: Jan 2014 Casino cash: $3064900	Lol... The idiot rico actually was bragging about Blake's stats too.
Posts: 5,855

08-21-2017, 08:36 AM	#8
Quesadilla Joe Abolish The Salary Cap! Join Date: Mar 2008 Casino cash: $4138675	Siemian is in some pretty good company. Should be a really fun season.
Posts: 19,623

08-21-2017, 08:37 AM	#9
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $4068880	Semen just blows for all 4 quarters. Post his numbers the last part of the season. __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
Posts: 68,306

08-21-2017, 08:40 AM	#10
loochy Hey Loochy, I'm hooome! Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: PooPooKaKaPeePeeShire Casino cash: $2230752	Smith isn't the garbage time king I thought he was. He's just about average....which, on second thought, seems right. Average schmaverage.
Posts: 40,423