David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by RobBlake

Alex will finish the season

And you would like that. But why? Smith isn't retiring a Chief, and the fans are sick to death of him as a player.
The only positive in that scenario, is that it assures that Mahomes will not sustain an injury.

Nothing more.

[dj56dt58]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Dude....I don't want Reid gone but at some point.....this shit becomes an issue. Four ****ing years of watching the same ****ing shit QB being trotted out there...and it reflects badly on the HC.

I think it reflects more on the front office. It's been this way since I can remember going back to the 90s. This franchise is loyal to a fault for whatever reason.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

So should we nickname him.


Alex “ I was in the 2017 MVP talk that one time” Smith?

Reversion to the mean.

Smith was playing at an MVP level the first 5 games. He's come back down to earth now.

I'd argue he had 4 great games, 3 respectable games, and 2 garbage games.

To this point Alex has played better than I thought he would. To this point our record is better than I thought it would be.

It should be clear now that this team has the holes we thought it did before the season...

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by dj56dt58

I think it reflects more on the front office. It's been this way since I can remember going back to the 90s. This franchise is loyal to a fault for whatever reason.

So loyal they traded up in the 1st to select a QB.

Great argument.

Look, Reid doesn't think PM is ready. Mahomes is a talent but it does us no good to trot him out early behind a questionable line.

We want 2PM and not RG3...

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by Rausch

So loyal they traded up in the 1st to select a QB.



Great argument.



Look, Reid doesn't think PM is ready. Mahomes is a talent but it does us no good to trot him out early behind a questionable line.



We want 2PM and not RG3...

Line was solid last weekend. Really hasn’t been overly questionable lately.

But if we say it enough then it’s true.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Line was solid last weekend. Really hasn’t been overly questionable lately.

But if we say it enough then it’s true.

I didn't even get to watch last week's game because my sleep has been so ****ed lately. Sounds like that was a good thing.

And when the best compliment you can pay is "not overly questionable" I think we can both agree there's room for improvement...

[srvy]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Line was solid last weekend. Really hasn’t been overly questionable lately.

But if we say it enough then it’s true.

Line was horrible run blocking and average pass blocking. Like usual Smith either held it to long or began his roll right to sideline to dump it OOB.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Not seeing him to next year fellas

[Chief3188]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Reversion to the mean.

Smith was playing at an MVP level the first 5 games. He's come back down to earth now.

I'd argue he had 4 great games, 3 respectable games, and 2 garbage games.

To this point Alex has played better than I thought he would. To this point our record is better than I thought it would be.

It should be clear now that this team has the holes we thought it did before the season...

We have had 3 games where the offense failed to score more than 17 points so I would not file any of those in the respectable column personally especially considering how the defenses of the Steelers, Cowboys and our TD'less game against the 31st Giants have fared against teams this season.

I like Alex as a professional and how he handles himself and these situations as a person. I am grateful that he along with Reid and Dorsey helped make this franchise at least respectable again after the emotion stealing seasons we have recently had prior to 2013. But he has served his purpose and it is time to give way to Mahomes. I had really hoped that Smith could have kept it up the way he played the first 5 weeks and gone out with a beautiful swan song ending in a SB. But everyone here knows whether they admit it or not that we are not going to a SB this year with Alex at the helm and based on history of rookie QB's probably not with Mahomes either. But what if there is any chance and I would say there is from just his preseason play alone that he can ignite this team to make it further albeit maybe only even 1 game further would it not be worth taking the road less traveled? Not to mention it gives Mahomes a better chance to hit the ground running next year with the possibility of getting postseason experience in his first year. Are you all really that excited to see another ending like the last 4 years that you know is coming unless by some oddity that Brady, Big Ben and half of Jacksonville's defense got hurt?
I just can't understand the fear that some have that they won't get their little AFC West downyear division winner banner and one extra game. That is just going to increase people's hatred for Alex that while I think a bit irrational I do understand where it is coming from as it is just pent up frustration from watching this team for a long time. Let him go and help the rookie while taking on a 2016 Tony Romo type of role. I would love for Smith to come back to KC as a backup or even some type of coaching maybe some day down the road.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Chief3188

We have had 3 games where the offense failed to score more than 17 points so I would not file any of those in the respectable column personally...

Get out of here with that bull$3it.

There is a difference between poor play and playing a good team.

Originally Posted by Chief3188

I like Alex as a professional and how he handles himself and these situations as a person. I am grateful that he along with Reid and Dorsey helped make this franchise at least respectable again after the emotion stealing seasons we had recently had prior to 2013.

All this is true and should be pointed out.

Originally Posted by Chief3188

But he has served his purpose and it is time to give way to Mahomes.

No, it's not.

I honestly believe PM will be a better QB than Smith.
I honestly believe that PM will be a top 5 QB when his time comes.
I also believe that if Andy knows anything it's how to manage QB's.

Neither Clark nor Andy are "knee-jerk" kind of guys, and that is good.

Originally Posted by Chief3188

But what if there is any chance and I would say there is from just his preseason play alone that he can ignite this team to make it further albeit maybe only even 1 game further?

A smart person doesn't risk the future (perhaps a decade of QB stability) for one extra game.

[Chiefs Pantalones]

I don’t want to bench Alex Smith. What if we go 1-4 in our next 5 games? What if we happen to only score 9 points and lose to a team like the Giants or something crazy like that?

You see how crazy you dumb ****ers sound that think benching him would make things worse?

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones

I don’t want to bench Alex Smith. What if we go 1-4 in our next 5 games? What if we happen to only score 9 points and lose to a team like the Giants or something crazy like that?

You see how crazy you dumb ****ers sound that think benching him would make things worse?

I'm not worried abut the team this year - I'm worried about the future of our team...

[Bewbies]

I can't wait to hear people wonder what changed when the line looks awesome with a competent QB standing behind them.

"Wow, the line looks so much better. Doing X made a big difference!"

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I'm not worried abut the team this year - I'm worried about the future of our team...

AMEN YOU FRAULEIN MUTHAFUKKA

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by ptlyon

AMEN YOU FRAULEIN MUTHAFUKKA

You just called me a young woman.