McShay: 2015 NFL Mock Draft 3.0
We made some updates to our board after seeing the measurements and athletic testing results from most of the top prospects in Indianapolis, and we continue to adjust players' grades as we complete their tape evaluations. We also came away from Indy with some more ideas on the direction teams could go with their picks.
The biggest question: Which of the top two quarterback prospects Tampa Bay will select with the No. 1 overall pick? Both Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota are in the mix, but to me, there's a clear difference between the two.
That's where we'll begin Mock Draft 3.0, our latest projection of all 32 first-round picks for the 2015 NFL draft.
1Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: SophHT: 6-3WT: 231POS: QB
Analysis: I'd be very surprised if the Bucs didn't take a quarterback at No. 1, and both Winston and Mariota are possibilities here. But to me, Winston has a clear advantage over Mariota based on his on-field performance. He is such a natural passer in terms of his ability to anticipate throws and deliver the ball accurately, and, to me, if you limit it to an on-field evaluation, he's second only to Andrew Luck among QB prospects of the past 10 years. Tampa Bay will have to be comfortable with its character and psychological evaluations of Winston before drafting him No. 1 overall, but from what I've heard, Winston really impressed teams during his combine interview sessions with how he talked about his past, and he wowed them with his football IQ. Mariota possesses great physical tools and very good character and football intelligence, and I think he has the potential to develop into a good NFL starter. But to me, Winston is both more advanced now and has the higher ceiling when projecting the future.
2 Leonard WilliamsTennessee Titans (2-14)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 302POS: DE
Analysis: The Titans have three options with this pick: (1) take Mariota (or Winston if Tampa takes Mariota No. 1); (2) take the best player in the draft in Williams, who is also a great fit in Tennessee's hybrid 3-4 defensive scheme; (3) accept an offer to trade down if they get a good one while on the clock. I've got them going with option 2, in part because I'm not sure Mariota's skill set is what head coach Ken Whisenhunt is looking for from his quarterback (he's had success with prototypical pocket passers in his career). Williams is an athletic, versatile and productive difference-maker who could be a Richard Seymour type at the next level as a 5-technique defensive end. If the Titans aren't going to draft a quarterback to match points with Luck and the Colts, they better get an impact defender who can help slow them down. Williams is that.
3 Dante Fowler Jr .Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 261POS: DE
Analysis: If there was a tackle worth drafting here, I'd probably have the Jags take one, since they are looking for competition along the entire offensive line. But they also need a young pass-rusher, and Fowler would be a good fit as a 4-3 defensive end next to D-tackles Roy Miller and Sen'Derrick Marks. Fowler isn't as athletic as Nebrask's Randy Gregory -- the guy I had Jacksonville taking previously -- but he's a more complete player who can not only rush the passer but also set the edge against the run. That's the difference between him and Gregory, who is long and explosive but just 236 pounds. He isn't a fit for Jacksonville as a 4-3 end.
4 Kevin White Oakland Raiders (3-13)COLLEGE: West VirginiaClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 215POS: WR
Analysis: The Raiders need to add weapons in the receiving corps to help second-year quarterback Derek Carr, and, to me, the choice comes down to White and Alabama's Amari Cooper. Cooper is a more proven commodity who is as complete a receiver as you'll find coming out of college given his savvy as a route runner, but White offers more big-play ability. He had just 35 catches in 2013 after transferring from junior college, but he exploded in 2014 once he became comfortable in the offense, catching 109 passes for 1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has great size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) and ball skills, and his 4.35 40-yard dash in Indy was the only sub-4.4 put up by a player 6-2 or taller in this year's class.
5Randy Gregory Washington Redskins (4-12)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: OLB
Analysis: The Redskins' top two needs are right tackle and pass-rusher. They could take Iowa's Brandon Scherff is they're convinced he can play right tackle, but their better option -- unless Mariota slides to this spot and they find a team willing to trade up so they can get some extra picks -- is to go with an edge rusher. Gregory has freakish athleticism for a guy with his length, and he'd be a good fit as a right outside linebacker opposite Ryan Kerrigan. He improved his power and consistency this year, but in order to develop into a complete player, he needs to bulk up to set the edge against the run and add more power as a pass-rusher.
6 Marcus Mariota New York Jets (4-12)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-3WT: 222POS: QB
Analysis: If this scenario plays out, it provides the Jets' new regime a great opportunity to draft their guy at quarterback. As I wrote in the Bucs' section, I see Mariota as being a notch below Winston, but I do believe he has the potential to become a good starter in this league, so long as the team that takes him has a plan to develop him. Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is a good fit for Mariota in that regard, given his history with spread-formation offenses. He can incorporate some up-tempo and zone-read elements for Mariota early while also developing his ability to win from the pocket, which is what Mariota will need to succeed long term. If the Jets don't take Mariota here, their other options include receiver Amari Cooper, cornerback Trae Waynes and pass-rusher Shane Ray.
7Danny Shelton Chicago Bears (5-11)COLLEGE: WashingtonClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 339POS: DT
Analysis: Shelton could become the centerpiece of the Bears' new 3-4 front in coordinator Vic Fangio's defense. They really need a versatile, big body, and Shelton provides that as a stout run defender who can occasionally collapse the pocket as a pass-rusher. Chicago also needs to add an edge rusher or two, which is why I considered slotting Missouri's Shane Ray here, but I think the team can look to address that need, as well as safety, on Day 2.
8 Shane Ray Atlanta Falcons (6-10)COLLEGE: MissouriClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 240POS: DE
Analysis: We moved Ray down our board a little bit this week, to No. 15. His below-average performance in the bench press (21 reps) and the fact that he weighed in at just 246 pounds is a little bit of a concern when you scroll through the list of the NFL's sack leaders and recognize how many of them have power as a major component of their games. I also haven't been blown away by what I've seen from Ray on tape so far. However, he was a very productive player at Missouri, and once we get a chance to do his full evaluation and see his testing results at his pro day (he wasn't able to run in Indy due to an injury), we might move him back up. And the Falcons are in serious need of pass-rushing help for new head coach Dan Quinn's defense.
9 Brandon Scherff New York Giants (6-10)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 319POS: OT
Analysis: I considered Oregon's Arik Armstead here because the Giants need a pass-rusher, especially if they can't work out a way to keep Jason Pierre-Paul. I think Armstead is an underrated prospect with an outstanding combination of size, agility and power, but he's a former basketball player who isn't known for being the toughest dude on the field, so I don't know that he'd be the right fit for a Tom Coughlin-coached team. Instead, I'll give them the ultimate tough guy in Scherff, who could either take over at right tackle for Justin Pugh or provide a major upgrade at left guard (with second-year lineman Weston Richburg likely to bump inside to center, his natural position).
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10 Amari Cooper St. Louis Rams (6-10)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 211POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams' biggest need is at quarterback, but in this scenario they aren't getting one. We don't project trades in these mocks, and it's hard to see St. Louis being able to draft Winston or Mariota on April 30 without trading up to do so. The next-biggest need is offensive line, but with Scherff off the board, there isn't a great value match at this point. (My highest-rated tackle is Andrus Peat, but he's more of a pure left tackle who doesn't fit this team's physical approach perfectly.) So I have them filling their need at wide receiver with a great value pick in Cooper, our No. 3 overall player. He is NFL-ready with great savvy as a route runner, separation skills, ball skills and run-after-catch ability. His 4.42 40-yard dash at the combine confirmed he has good speed.
11 Trae Waynes Minnesota Vikings (7-9)COLLEGE: Michigan StateClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 186POS: CB
Analysis: I think this pick could come down to Waynes and Louisville receiver DeVante Parker, who was Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's favorite target at Louisville and is a top-10 player on our board. But Minnesota really needs help at corner, so I'll go with Waynes. He really helped himself at the combine by running a 4.31 40-yard dash, which eliminated any concerns about his speed after showing a little bit of tightness on tape. He is a technically sound cover corner with good instincts and football character. Plus, he plays hard and isn't afraid to show up in run support.
12 DeVante Parker Cleveland Browns (7-9)COLLEGE: LouisvilleClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 207POS: WR
Analysis: The Browns' quarterback situation is a mess, with Brian Hoyer a free agent and 2014 first-rounder Johnny Manziel currently in rehab after a rookie season in which he struggled. But the only way they're going to find an answer in this year's draft is if they package the No. 12 and No. 19 picks to move up into the top five to draft Mariota, and I don't think they will (or should) do that. So their next-biggest needs are probably right tackle, wide receiver and nose tackle, and in Parker they're getting a big, productive wide receiver who quietly put up some impressive workout numbers at the combine -- 4.45 40-yard dash, 36.5-inch vertical jump, 10 foot, 5 inch broad jump -- that matched the explosiveness he displays on tape.
13 Vic Beasley New Orleans Saints (7-9)COLLEGE: ClemsonClass: SrHT: 6-3WT: 246POS: OLB
Analysis: I've got cornerback, outside linebacker, inside linebacker and offensive line as the Saints' biggest need areas, and in Beasley they'd be filling one of those while upgrading their pass rush. He turned in one of the best all-around workouts of the 322 players invited to this year's combine. He still needs to improve the power element to his game, both as a pass-rusher and when setting the edge versus the run, but he provided some indication that he'll be able to do exactly that by adding 26 pounds to his frame since last spring. Moreover, he has the fastest first step of any defender I've studied on tape this year, his football character is outstanding and he was remarkably productive at Clemson (44.5 tackles for loss and 25 sacks the past two seasons). This pick would make four edge rushers in the top 13.
14Kevin Johnson Miami Dolphins (8-8)COLLEGE: Wake ForestClass: SrHT: 6-0WT: 188POS: CB
Analysis: This is a bit of a reach here, as Johnson is our 20th-ranked prospect, but given how many good young wide receivers there are in the NFL right now (with another good class on the way), teams such as Miami that need help at cornerback could feel compelled to reach a little bit on the best cornerback prospects in this class. Johnson is an underrated cover corner with excellent change-of-direction skills and good size at 6-foot, and he quietly turned in one of the better overall combine workouts among defensive backs. His 4.52 40 time is slightly above average for a corner, but what was overlooked were his outstanding results in the jumps (41.5-inch vertical, 10 foot, 10 inch broad) and shuttles (3.89 short shuttle, 6.79 long), matching the explosiveness and fluidity he shows on tape. Washington cornerback Marcus Peters is the better player, but his behavioral baggage could push him down the board.
15 Arik Armstead San Francisco 49ers (8-8)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-7WT: 292POS: DE
Analysis: The 49ers need a receiver who can stretch the field vertically, and there are several from which they could choose at this spot, but they also could be looking at upgrades at corner, offensive line and on the defensive front. Armstead is a great value pick at this spot (he's our No. 9 overall player), with an outstanding combination of size, agility and power. He shows violent hands to get off of blocks in the running game and as a pass-rusher. The arrow is pointing the right way with him, and he could be the heir apparent to Justin Smith, who is considering retirement.
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16 Andrus Peat Houston Texans (9-7)COLLEGE: StanfordClass: JrHT: 6-6WT: 313POS: OT
Analysis: The Texans are a tough team to project prior to free agency because they have free agents they might need to replace via the draft at nearly every position on defense, depending on how things go. But as of now, right tackle is a need area, and Peat is a great value at this spot (No. 7 on our board). He has played left tackle his entire career, so the Texans would have to be comfortable with him transitioning to the right side if they want him to replace free-agent Derek Newton opposite current left tackle Duane Brown. But if they are, Peat is a big-time talent, with good size, length, awareness and quick feet. He has been inconsistent with his balance and as a finisher, but he's young (21 years old) and should continue to improve. Houston needs to upgrade at quarterback but doesn't have any options to do that in this scenario.
17 Malcom Brown San Diego Chargers (9-7)COLLEGE: TexasClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 319POS: DT
Analysis: The Chargers need to upgrade the interior of their defensive line, as Sean Lissemore isn't working out at nose tackle and last year's fifth-rounder, Ryan Carrethers, only played in six games as a rookie. Brown could help right away, because at 6-2, 319 pounds he has the size and strength to not only upgrade the San Diego run defense but also add some much-needed pass-rushing production from the nose tackle spot. As a bonus, he's versatile enough to play all along the defensive line in different fronts.
18 Dorial Green-BeckhamKansas City Chiefs (9-7)COLLEGE: MissouriClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 237POS: WR
Analysis: The Chiefs could really use a downfield threat at the wide receiver position (you've probably heard this a few times by now, but they didn't have a wide receiver catch a touchdown pass in 2014), and if they want one with slightly less risk, then Michigan's Devin Funchess and Arizona State's Jaelen Strong are options here. However, it's easy to see why they might take a chance on Green-Beckham. He has a unique skill set at 6-5, 237 pounds with 4.49 speed and flashed some impressive play as a true sophomore for Missouri in 2013. However, he's very raw on tape and has had some significant off-field incidents that resulted in his dismissal from the Missouri football program, so this would be a high-risk/high-reward pick.
19 Ereck Flowers Cleveland Browns (7-9)COLLEGE: Miami (FL)Class: JrHT: 6-6WT: 329POS: OT
Analysis: I had the Browns take Louisville receiver DeVante Parker at No. 12, so with this pick they'll address their need at right tackle. Flowers has a really good combination of size, strength, agility and toughness. He can get better with his hand placement and he needs to work at keeping his pads down more consistently, but the weaknesses he shows on tape are correctable. Additionally, he possesses great football character and takes well to coaching.
20 Landon Collins Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 228POS: S
Analysis: I know from talking to Chip Kelly previously how highly he thinks of Mariota, his former quarterback at Oregon, but I don't know whether he'd be willing to pay a really high price in terms of draft picks and other assets to move up to draft him. Regardless, we don't project trades in these mock drafts anyway, and Collins would fill a need at safety, with strong safety Nate Allen a free agent this offseason. Collins has weakside linebacker size (6-0, 228 pounds) and impressive straight-line speed (4.53 40), and while he has some limitations in man-to-man coverage, he's got good range in deep zone coverage and he fills hard in run support. Washington cornerback Marcus Peters is another possibility here, since the Eagles need help at corner.
21 Bud Dupree Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)COLLEGE: KentuckyClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 269POS: OLB
Analysis: The Bengals need to upgrade their pass rush, and while Dupree needs polish and is inconsistent from game to game on tape, he has the physical tools to develop into a really good edge rusher in the NFL. The explosive ability he flashes on tape were verified with his ridiculous combine workout: At 6-4, 269 pounds, he ran a 4.56 40 and turned in the best score among linebackers in both the vertical (42 inches) and broad (11 feet, 6 inches) jump.
22 Jalen Collins Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)COLLEGE: LSUClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 203POS: CB
Analysis: Three of the Steelers' outside linebackers (James Harrison, Arthur Moats and Jason Worilds) are free agents, so that could quickly become a need area for them this offseason. For now, we'll have them address their secondary (both corner and safety are an issue) with Collins. He lacks ideal starting experience and still needs to refine his technique, but he's a long cornerback (an increasingly valuable commodity in today's NFL) with excellent movement skills and speed. He is also very good in run support.
23 Cameron Erving Detroit Lions (11-5)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: SrHT: 6-5WT: 313POS: OC
Analysis: The Lions could look to draft a defensive tackle here whether Ndamukong Suh returns or not -- Nick Fairley, Andre Fluellen and C.J. Mosley are all free agents as well -- but that isn't their only need. Cornerback, wide receiver and running back are other positions they could address, and the offensive line needs help, too, with quarterback Matthew Stafford being sacked 45 times last season. Erving could take over at center for Detroit, moving Travis Swanson to left guard. Those two, plus a healthy LaAdrian Waddle, would fill out a strong offensive line, with right guard Larry Warford and left tackle Riley Reiff playing at above-average levels at their respective positions.
24 Eli Harold Arizona Cardinals (11-5)COLLEGE: VirginiaClass: JrHT: 6-3WT: 237POS: OLB
Analysis: This is a reach in that Harold is only the No. 37 player on our board, but the Cardinals need to improve their pass rush and six have already gone off the board in this scenario. Also, Harold flashed elite physical tools that speak to his upside at the next level with his combine workout, putting up excellent numbers in the three drills most predictive of success for pass-rushers -- the 40-yard dash, the 10-yard split and short shuttle -- delivering excellent results of 4.6, 1.56 and 4.16, respectively. Arizona could also look to address the D-line, inside linebacker and running back positions this offseason.
25 T.J. Clemmings Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)COLLEGE: PittsburghClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 309POS: OT
Analysis: The Panthers count both left tackle and right tackle among their positions of need, and Clemmings could step in and fill the hole on the right side. He's very raw, having only played offensive line the past two seasons, but he is a huge, powerful run-blocker who has enough mobility to develop into a good starter at right tackle in the NFL.
26Marcus Peters Baltimore Ravens (10-6)COLLEGE: WashingtonClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 197POS: CB
Analysis: Cornerback and safety have to be the priority positions for the Ravens this offseason, although they could also go with a wide receiver, running back or pass-rusher at this spot depending upon how the board shakes out. Based strictly off his tape, Peters is the best all-around cornerback in the class, with a good combination of instincts, cover skills, toughness and ball skills. The reason I have him sliding this fall is that he was kicked off Washington's football team this fall for repeated behavioral issues. The Ravens would have to feel comfortable with his character before drafting him, but they took a chance on a corner with similar baggage in Jimmy Smith a few years back, and Smith has fallen in line while becoming a productive player for Baltimore.
27Melvin Gordon Dallas Cowboys (12-4)COLLEGE: WisconsinClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 215POS: RB
Analysis: Cornerback, defensive line and tight end are among the positions Dallas could look to address this offseason, and depending upon how the DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant contract situations turn out, running back and wide receiver could also become priorities. If the Cowboys can keep only one of those guys, Murray is likely the odd man out as the 27-year old running back. Gordon's running style and skill set is very similar to Murray's as a workhorse who runs hard, gets from zero to 60 in a flash and displays great vision and patience as a runner, which would make him an ideal replacement. He isn't great in the passing game but showed some improvement at it this season. This pick would break the two-year streak of no running backs being drafted in the first round.
28Eddie Goldman Denver Broncos (12-4)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 336POS: DT
Analysis: This pick is largely dependent upon how free agency goes for the Broncos -- tight end, wide receiver and offensive line are all positions they could address. But if nose tackle Terrance Knighton leaves as a free agent, which seems likely at this point, Goldman is a good pick to replace him this late in the first round. Goldman is a stout run defender at 6-4, 336 pounds. He gets some push as a pass-rusher, although that isn't his strength, but Knighton doesn't provide much in that area, either.
29La'el Collins Indianapolis Colts (11-5)COLLEGE: LSUClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 305POS: OT
Analysis: The Colts will likely be hoping for one of the pass-rushers already off the board in this mock draft to drop to No. 29, as they need some youth at the perimeter rusher spots. Bjoern Werner hasn't shown enough promise for them to count on him emerging in 2015, and Robert Mathis turns 34 on Feb. 26. But in this scenario, the market on pass-rusher prospects has run dry, so I have them upgrading their offensive line with Collins, who could play either right tackle or right guard for Indianapolis. Georgia running back Todd Gurley is another possibility here.
30Jordan Phillip Green Bay Packers (12-4)COLLEGE: OklahomaClass: SophHT: 6-5WT: 329POS: DT
Analysis: The Packers have needs at inside linebacker, which is why Mississippi State's Benardrick McKinney could make sense here, and tight end, but both of those are positions they can address on Day 2. Defensive tackles B.J. Raji and Letroy Guion are free agents (Guion is also currently dealing with legal trouble), so drafting a replacement at nose tackle in Phillips makes sense. To be clear, Phillips' game tape is not that of a first-round pick; his effort is very up and down. But there are only so many human beings with the combination of size (6-5, 329 pounds) and athletic ability that Phillips possesses. He's three inches taller, 10 pounds heavier and has two-inch longer arms than Texas' Malcom Brown, yet he outperformed Brown in the vertical and broad jumps and had nearly identical times in his shuttle runs. If he becomes more consistent with his effort, he could be a very good player in the NFL.
31Todd Gurley Seattle Seahawks (12-4)COLLEGE: GeorgiaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 222POS: RB
Analysis: If the Seahawks sign Marshawn Lynch to a long-term contract, then you can cross this pick off the list. But I have a hard time believing that's going to happen, and Gurley would make a lot of sense as a long-term replacement for Lynch in Seattle. The best NFL comp I can come up with for Gurley is Lynch, and he's a premier talent in this class with his combination of speed and power. Durability is a question mark with him, as he is currently recovering from a torn ACL. The Seahawks also need help along both lines, and LSU's La'el Collins could be an option if he falls to this spot. Miami tight end Clive Walford would be a good fit in the second round.
32Carl Davis New England Patriots (12-4)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 320POS: DT
Analysis: Todd Gurley would be an intriguing option here if he fell to this spot, and Michigan receiver Devin Funchess might also make sense as another weapon in the passing game alongside Rob Gronkowski. But Davis would help shore up the defensive line. His effort was inconsistent at Iowa but he has the traits you're looking for at the position: 6-5, 320 pounds with 34.6-inch arms and very good explosiveness (5.07 40-yard dash and a 39-inch vertical leap). Vince Wilfork would need to teach Davis how to be a pro.
02-26-2015, 03:56 PM
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