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Old 05-03-2017, 06:44 AM  
Chiefnj2 Chiefnj2 is offline
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Did the Chiefs Want Trubisky?

I know the immediate reaction will be "No, it was Mahomes all they way", but a few post draft interviews leave me wondering if Trubisky was the #1 QB on their board. First, in the MMQB 49ers draft article Shanahan was quoted as saying KC was offering a lot to the Titans to move up to #5. The 49ers couldn't fathom who KC was trading up for.

The Titans GM was on Sirius radio doing a post draft interview and he talked about how a couple of teams had reached out to them to trade up to #5, but that all the calls went dead after the Bears chose Trubisky at #2 and came off the board.

So, is there a chance KC wanted to move to #5 for Mitch?
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:01 PM   #31
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In the 49ers report, I assumed the Chiefs wanted Pat at #5 because of the Jets and Chargers. They got lucky neither of them went for a QB.

As far as the Titans GM goes, who knows what to think of that. They reached on Corey Davis and maybe he doesn't want to admit they turned down trade offers that were still on the table. Or maybe he's telling the truth and Reid/Dorsey are lying about Mahomes' performance relative to the other QB's in the interview process.

Trubisky is an interesting prospect. Some say he's a safer pick than Mahomes, but I think his bust potential is just as bad and possibly worse than Mahomes. Trubisky seems like a nice kid who is in over his head based on interviews I've seen, the Gruden show where he tried to bullshit his way through a hard count and Gruden nailed him for it, etc. I think his ceiling is game manager. I could also see him turning into a mega bust. Obviously Mahomes has mega bust potential too given the flaws in his game, but he also has superstar potential on the high end.
They didn't "reach" for him... they got him right where he needed to be taken.
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Old 05-15-2017, 01:07 PM   #32
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Glad the Chiefs did not draft Tribustky, I think he will have a short career. Fans there are already booing him and he hasn't even stepped onto the field.
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Old 05-15-2017, 01:08 PM   #33
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Or they can cut Smith and gain 17 million from that one player. If Maclin has another down year, they'll move on, but I'd imagine they'll want as many weapons around Mahomes as they can get. Cutting Smith would allow them the $ to add a good backup and a few other decent free agent options.
What's more important to the Chiefs 2018 success?

1. Releasing aging and under performing players in Maclin, DJ, Hali, Reid, Bailey and Harris to gain $17 million in cap space?

2. Releasing Alex Smith, which nets $13.4 million in cap space and starting what is essentially a rookie QB with no viable 2nd or 3rd string QB on the roster?

No offense to you personally but there is a lot of short-sightedness on CP in regards to the QB situation.
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Old 05-15-2017, 01:49 PM   #34
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What's more important to the Chiefs 2018 success?

1. Releasing aging and under performing players in Maclin, DJ, Hali, Reid, Bailey and Harris to gain $17 million in cap space?

2. Releasing Alex Smith, which nets $13.4 million in cap space and starting what is essentially a rookie QB with no viable 2nd or 3rd string QB on the roster?

No offense to you personally but there is a lot of short-sightedness on CP in regards to the QB situation.
You want to pay your backup QB $20 million?
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:21 PM   #35
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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You want to pay your backup QB $20 million?
It hasn't been established that Smith won't start the 2018 season.

I actually expect Smith the start the 2018 season at this point in time, with Mahomes taking over late in the season, especially if Smith falters.

It should also be noted that the Chiefs save approximately $11 million towards the cap in 2018 due to the trade of their first round pick, which opens up other opportunities as well.
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:28 PM   #36
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It hasn't been established that Smith won't start the 2018 season.

I actually expect Smith the start the 2018 season at this point in time, with Mahomes taking over late in the season, especially if Smith falters.

It should also be noted that the Chiefs save approximately $11 million towards the cap in 2018 due to the trade of their first round pick, which opens up other opportunities as well.
And what happens if Mahomes beats out Smith to start 2018? Are you paying him $20 million to hold a clipboard?
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:41 PM   #37
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Restructure.
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:42 PM   #38
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Restructure.
No. Pay cut.
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:42 PM   #39
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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And what happens if Mahomes beats out Smith to start 2018? Are you paying him $20 million to hold a clipboard?
If that happens, the Chiefs can choose to hold on to him, restructure or cut him to roll over the cap savings into 2019.

The bottom line is that there is no rush to make a decision for September 2018 in May 2017.
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:46 PM   #40
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What's more important to the Chiefs 2018 success?

1. Releasing aging and under performing players in Maclin, DJ, Hali, Reid, Bailey and Harris to gain $17 million in cap space?

2. Releasing Alex Smith, which nets $13.4 million in cap space and starting what is essentially a rookie QB with no viable 2nd or 3rd string QB on the roster?

No offense to you personally but there is a lot of short-sightedness on CP in regards to the QB situation.
Ideally you do both.

Rolling $30 million into 2019 is better than rolling $17 million. It all matters.

For this pick to really be a homerun, Mahomes has to either 1) Be a genuine superstar; a top 5 caliber QB (top 10 at worst) or 2) Mahomes has to be average to slightly above average starting in 2018 so that the financial advantage of having him can accrue immediately, especially given the fact that his 5th year option won't be nearly as advantageous as someone taking at pick 11 or later would have been.

1 is a long-shot. I love Mahomes but you can't just say "X player WILL be an All-Pro"; the odds overwhelmingly suggest he won't. He may have better odds than many would, but they're still less than 50/50. So with that thin margin for error, you'd be better served betting on option 2 - Smith needs to be replaced by 2018 or this move (using two 1st rounders) will start to look pretty bad.
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:57 PM   #41
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Ideally you do both.

Rolling $30 million into 2019 is better than rolling $17 million. It all matters.

For this pick to really be a homerun, Mahomes has to either 1) Be a genuine superstar; a top 5 caliber QB (top 10 at worst) or 2) Mahomes has to be average to slightly above average starting in 2018 so that the financial advantage of having him can accrue immediately, especially given the fact that his 5th year option won't be nearly as advantageous as someone taking at pick 11 or later would have been.

1 is a long-shot. I love Mahomes but you can't just say "X player WILL be an All-Pro"; the odds overwhelmingly suggest he won't. He may have better odds than many would, but they're still less than 50/50. So with that thin margin for error, you'd be better served betting on option 2 - Smith needs to be replaced by 2018 or this move (using two 1st rounders) will start to look pretty bad.
So you think the Chiefs moved up and drafted the first QB (1st round) in 34 years but believe he is a long shot to be a star?

Seems from their interviews- they DO think he is going to be a STAR.
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Old 05-15-2017, 03:04 PM   #42
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So you think the Chiefs moved up and drafted the first QB (1st round) in 34 years but believe he is a long shot to be a star?

Seems from their interviews- they DO think he is going to be a STAR.
I suspect if you got Andy or Dorsey drunk and asked them to give you a number, they'd put it at less than 50% likely that he's an All-Pro caliber QB.

But they think there's a chance that he becomes that kind of player. And a better chance than many of the guys they've looked at in the past. To their eyes, that chance was good enough to take the risk.

I think NFL guys are far more 'eyes wide open' than we tend to give them credit for. Oh sure, they're confident, but every now and then you get an interview from them with complete candor and they'll let you know that sometimes their best laid plans just don't work and they know that's a possibility.

Andy and Dorsey spent this capital on Mahomes because in him they see a CHANCE that he's a star. And let's look at Dorsey's history - he's HUGE on ceiling. Ford and Fisher were both extremely raw, high risk players that they gambled on. Dorsey finally ended up in a position where that kind of guy, one that fit nicely into his 'decision lens' was attainable so he got him. But yeah, he knows there's a chance that it doesn't work.
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Old 05-15-2017, 03:37 PM   #43
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Ideally you do both.

Rolling $30 million into 2019 is better than rolling $17 million. It all matters.
Agreed

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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
For this pick to really be a homerun, Mahomes has to either 1) Be a genuine superstar; a top 5 caliber QB (top 10 at worst) or 2) Mahomes has to be average to slightly above average starting in 2018 so that the financial advantage of having him can accrue immediately, especially given the fact that his 5th year option won't be nearly as advantageous as someone taking at pick 11 or later would have been.

1 is a long-shot. I love Mahomes but you can't just say "X player WILL be an All-Pro"; the odds overwhelmingly suggest he won't. He may have better odds than many would, but they're still less than 50/50. So with that thin margin for error, you'd be better served betting on option 2 - Smith needs to be replaced by 2018 or this move (using two 1st rounders) will start to look pretty bad.
And this is the whole thing: No one knows.

Sure, Reid, Dorsey and Hunt did all the research on the guy, feel he has the potential to be a very good to great player and Mahomes has an excellent bloodline of professional sports in his lineage.

But no one can absolutely state that he's a "Franchise QB", future HOFer (which is pretty much what you need to be a consistent Super Bowl winner and threat) and that he'll unequivocally be ready to lead the Chiefs franchise to 10+ wins in 2018.

It's an educated guess.

But the thing that really stands out to me, at least with 90% of CP members, is that they're forgetting about the journey that several of the highest drafted players currently on the Chiefs roster took before realizing their potential.

It took Derrick Johnson six years before he lived up to his draft expectations and took Tamba Hali five full years before registering 10+ sacks. Eric Berry is still growing as a player! It took Jamaal Charles a few seasons until he was able to be a consistent threat. Dee Ford was considered a "bust" by most of CP (not me, of course) before breaking out in 2016 (his third season) with double digit sacks. Eric Fisher is still ascending and his best years are ahead of him (the same was with Chris Jones and Mitch Morse and LDT, etc.).

The bottom line is that you're absolutely correct, especially in regards to John Dorsey, in that he drafts players as projections for their ceiling, and not finished products.
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Old 05-15-2017, 03:45 PM   #44
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Agreed



And this is the whole thing: No one knows.

Sure, Reid, Dorsey and Hunt did all the research on the guy, feel he has the potential to be a very good to great player and Mahomes has an excellent bloodline of professional sports in his lineage.

But no one can absolutely state that he's a "Franchise QB", future HOFer (which is pretty much what you need to be a consistent Super Bowl winner and threat) and that he'll unequivocally be ready to lead the Chiefs franchise to 10+ wins in 2018.

It's an educated guess.

But the thing that really stands out to me, at least with 90% of CP members, is that they're forgetting about the journey that several of the highest drafted players currently on the Chiefs roster took before realizing their potential.

It took Derrick Johnson six years before he lived up to his draft expectations and took Tamba Hali five full years before registering 10+ sacks. Eric Berry is still growing as a player! It took Jamaal Charles a few seasons until he was able to be a consistent threat. Dee Ford was considered a "bust" by most of CP (not me, of course) before breaking out in 2016 (his third season) with double digit sacks. Eric Fisher is still ascending and his best years are ahead of him (the same was with Chris Jones and Mitch Morse and LDT, etc.).

The bottom line is that you're absolutely correct, especially in regards to John Dorsey, in that he drafts players as projections for their ceiling, and not finished products.
I think it really depends. If the kid is looking good in preseason and through the season on the scout team and shows the ability to understand enough of the playbook to satisfy Andy, why not roll with him in 2018?
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Old 05-15-2017, 03:49 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
What's more important to the Chiefs 2018 success?

1. Releasing aging and under performing players in Maclin, DJ, Hali, Reid, Bailey and Harris to gain $17 million in cap space?

2. Releasing Alex Smith, which nets $13.4 million in cap space and starting what is essentially a rookie QB with no viable 2nd or 3rd string QB on the roster?

No offense to you personally but there is a lot of short-sightedness on CP in regards to the QB situation.
DJ pretty much laid it out here about the rookie qb contract so I'll leave that there.

If Mahomes isn't ready to go by the start of next season, somethings gone wrong imo, in that it's essentially signaling that he's not where they expect him to be based on the alignment of Smith's contract.

If they want to keep smith in that situation, they'd need to restructure imo.

From over the cap it looks like cutting smith nets them 17 mil, where are you getting the 13.4?
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