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Old 09-23-2013, 04:20 PM  
|Zach| |Zach| is offline
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Interesting Intrade info - "One Big Trader Lost Millions Betting on Romney"

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/0...y-study-finds/

A new academic paper digging into presidential betting in the final weeks of the 2012 election finds that a single trader lost between $4 million and $7 million placing a flurry of Intrade bets on Mitt Romney—perhaps to make the Republican nominee’s chance of victory appear brighter.

Two economists who studied the data offer various rationales for the trader’s aggressive wagering on Mr. Romney in the final two weeks of the campaign. The anonymous trader placed 1.2 million pro-Romney contracts, some of which were actually in the form of bets against a Barack Obama victory.

The most plausible reason for the betting, the authors conclude, is that “this trader could have been attempting to manipulate beliefs about the odds of victory in an attempt to boost fundraising, campaign morale, and turnout.”

The economists, Rajiv Sethi, of Barnard College and Columbia University, and David Rothschild, of Microsoft Research, also analyze the possibility that the trader, who accounted for a third of all the money wagered on Mr. Romney in the last two weeks, could have placed his bets either to hedge on wagers in other markets or simply because he thought the price was good.

The trader remained bullish on Mr. Romney well into Election Night at a time when the GOP candidate’s odd of victory were clearly fading. But Mr. Sethi, who wrote a blog post on the study and teaches at both Columbia and Barnard, said in an interview that the pattern of the trader’s bets were not those of an irrational person. “This was someone who was extremely sophisticated. It was not someone who was dumb or stupid,” he said.

The paper reaches no firm conclusion on the trader’s motivation, but leans toward the thesis that someone was trying to modify perceptions of the race, even down the final stretch.

A number of stories and blog posts in the final weeks of the election noted that Mr. Romney continued to fare well on the Intrade market, even as he was lagging in public opinion polls. Intrade, based in Ireland, stopped trading activity in March.

“It is worth knowing that a highly visible market that drove many a media narrative could be manipulated at a cost less than that of a primetime television commercial,” the authors write.

The study also hit on another oddity: That political wagering appears to be far more static than would be the case in any other information-rich trading markets. In all, 86% of traders, accounting for slightly more than half of all volume, never changed who they were wagering on, no matter what was happening in the news. Just a small fraction of accounts—around 6%–were determined to be “unbiased” by taking positions on either candidate as the election evolved, the economists found.
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Old 09-23-2013, 04:38 PM   #2
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That is insane.
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Old 09-23-2013, 05:39 PM   #3
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
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Funny thing is that most of this board would have bet their life savings that Romney would win. They were THAT SURE that, you know, every single poll was wrong and biased against Mitt.
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Old 09-23-2013, 05:49 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Funny thing is that most of this board would have bet their life savings that Romney would win. They were THAT SURE that, you know, every single poll was wrong and biased against Mitt.
I don't know anybody that would have been silly enough to bet a hundred dollars much less their life's savings on Mitt winning. I think most were like me who voted any body but Barry and were stunned and disappointed Mitt ****ing Romney was the best they had to offer~
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Old 09-23-2013, 06:07 PM   #5
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Karl rove. That's the reason for his election night histrionics.
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Old 09-23-2013, 06:19 PM   #6
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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Do these two guys know who the "trader" is?
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Old 09-23-2013, 06:42 PM   #7
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I'm guessing they were given data with identifying info removed, which is a shame, i'd really like to know more about this guy. Then again, intrade closed down and so they no longer have an interest in protecting their clients, so maybe it will come out.
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Old 09-23-2013, 06:49 PM   #8
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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If they dont know who it was how the **** do they reach these conclusions? May as well speculate what brand of shoes he wears.
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Old 09-23-2013, 07:11 PM   #9
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They can see the account and its trading activity, they just don't see the name or address. Or else they see it and signed a NDA.
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Old 09-23-2013, 07:33 PM   #10
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Heh I remember teej and others trying to claim Intrade was legit.
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Old 09-23-2013, 09:32 PM   #11
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Anyone who followed the Intrade stuff could easily tell when the false pumping went on.
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Old 09-23-2013, 09:33 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Heh I remember teej and others trying to claim Intrade was legit.
You're such a moron. Intrade is an excellent tool if you know how to use it. It's not a crystal ball, it's a market, just like any other market. You're familiar with how stocks work, it blows my mind that you're too stupid to understand Intrade.
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Old 09-23-2013, 09:35 PM   #13
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You're such a moron. Intrade is an excellent tool if you know how to use it. It's not a crystal ball, it's a market, just like any other market. You're familiar with how stocks work, it blows my mind that you're too stupid to understand Intrade.
Intrade was gambling. There was no investing with it. There are no insights to be gleaned from it. It was no different than going to Vegas.
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Old 09-23-2013, 09:38 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Intrade was gambling. There was no investing with it. There are no insights to be gleaned from it. It was no different than going to Vegas.
Intrade and other prediction markets often outperform polls and "expert" predictions. There was a lot of insight to learn from it.
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Old 09-23-2013, 09:40 PM   #15
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Intrade was gambling. There was no investing with it. There are no insights to be gleaned from it. It was no different than going to Vegas.

It must be a hollow feeling to study economics and have no real understanding of markets.
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