The possibility of keeping Alex Smith. - Page 11

Direckshun · 09-08-2017, 01:36 PM

Alright, let's get down to some nitty gritty here, folks.

What if Alex Smith is amazing in 2017? The Chiefs hand will be forced -- keep him. 2018 will be the final year of his contract and it's a $20m cap hit. Not unreasonable for a guy playing extremely well.

So, what would the Chiefs have to do?

First, we pretty much have the cap met RIGHT NOW, assuming we bring back absolutely no one who is a free agent. So our cap is royally ****ed.

The two most popular ideas right now are cutting DJ/Hali, or letting them both retire, or whatever. Cutting them saves us a combined $15m. We likely have DJ's replacements already on the roster, and Ford will be entering his contract year in 2018.

We can also cut (or trade) Allen Bailey if we want to elevate RNR to a starting slot. Trading Bailey saves us $8m (and nets us a draft pick or whatever). Cutting him saves us $6m.

If Eric Fisher has a really good 2017, maybe we just extend/restructure him at the end of the season. That would lower his cap hit in 2018 (right now it's slated for $14m).

I wouldn't touch Allen Bailey, but I'd cut DJ/Hali and extend/restructure Fisher. That allows us to keep Mr. Smith and have roughly $20m in cap space, $5m of which can go to our rookie class.

I think it's non-negotiable that we bring back Terrance Mitchell, but he shouldn't cost a ton. Bennie Logan might be a good idea -- although, again, we could just play RNR at the nose and be fine (which is what I would do if we kept Smith on the roster).

So my recommendation, keeping Alex rather than trading him:

1. cut/retire DJ
2. cut/retire Hali
3. restructure/extend Fisher
4. extend Terrance Mitchell
5. let basically all of our FAs walk: De'Anthony, Fulton, Logan, Sherman, Albert Wilson, Gaines, Colquitt
6. make a few choice re-signings (Santos, KPL, maybe Gaines?)

That'll leave us thin at DL, OL, and OLB -- which I hate. And the best draft pick we'll have in 2018 will be at the very bottom of the 2nd.

But hey, if your QB is balling out, who cares?

Food for thought.

O.city · 10-11-2017, 09:54 AM

Andy sold in Mcnabb high.

If alex plays at this level all year, that's the highest it's gonna get value wise. What are the chances he does it again next year, a year older?

Discuss Thrower · 10-11-2017, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

What are the chances he does it again next year, a year older?

kccrow · 10-11-2017, 03:47 PM

If they do keep him, here'd be my plan...

Sign:

Beau Allen, NT (PHI)
(reference A. Woods, D. Square)
2 years, $4 million, $1.5 million signing bonus
~ $1.5 million 2018

Re-Sign:
Anthony Sherman, FB
(reference P. DiMarco)
4 years, $8.5 million, $2 million signing bonus
~ $2 million 2018

Tyler Bray, QB
(reference R. Griffen, K. Clemens, B. Weeden, C. Daniel, etc)
2 years, $2.4 million
~ $1.2 million 2018

Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DL
RFA Tender Original Round
~ $1.8 million 2018

Terrance Mitchell, CB
(reference B. Carr, J. Lane, M. Cooper, C. Hayward, etc)
4 years, $22 million, $6 million signing bonus, $8 million guaranteed.
~ $3.8 million 2018

Terrance Smith, ILB
ERFA Tender
~$630k 2018

Kevin Pierre-Louis, ILB
1 year, vet minimum $790k

Phillip Gaines, CB
1 year, vet minimum $790k

Estimated 2018 Net Increase Against Cap: $12.5 million
Total Cap Space needed: $12.5 + $5 million buffer + $3 million draft = $20.5 million

Let walk:

LB R. Wilson (RFA)
WR D. Thomas
WR A. Wilson
DB S. Terrell
DB K. Acker
DL J. Jenkins
DL R. Miller
OL J. Devey
OL Z. Fulton
SP D. Colquitt

Other Transactions:

Retire/Release Derrick Johnson, ILB ($8 million cap space)
Retire/Release Tamba Hali, OLB ($7 million cap space)
Release Demetrius Harris ($2 million cap space)
Convert $6 million of Justin Houston's 2018 salary into a signing bonus (gains $4 million cap space 2018)
Total Cap Space Gained: $21 million

Roster:
QB: A. Smith, P. Mahomes, T. Bray
RB: K. Hunt, S. Ware, C. West
FB: A. Sherman
TE: T. Kelce, R. Travis, ?
WR: T. Hill, C. Conley, J. Chesson, D. Robinson, M. Kemp?, G. Deiter?
OL: E. Fisher, P. Ehinger, M. Morse, L. Duvernay-Tardif, M. Schwartz, B. Witzman, C. Erving, ?, ?
DL: R. Nunez-Roches, C. Jones, A. Bailey, T. Kpassagnon, B. Allen
OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, D. Nicolas, F. Zombo, ?
ILB: U. Eligwe, R. Ragland, T. Smith, K. Pierre-Louis, ?
CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, S. Nelson, D. White, P. Gaines, A. Lampkin
DB: E. Berry, R. Parker, D. Sorensen, E. Murray
ST: H. Butker, J. Winchester, ?

Leaves you some holes at TE, OL, OLB, ILB, and P and maybe WR.
You could probably fill 2 of those with cheap vet free agents (esp WR, TE or OL) at the minimum and still have a little buffer for the season, and I don't think the draft will cost the $3 million I have allocated (net cap effect, not total money). You could sign Kemp and Deiter to the 53 for next year and only cost you 960k, so that's a big area to keep the savings IMO.

Couch-Potato · 10-12-2017, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldSchool

If he goes off this year and they think that Mahomes is ready, the FO will likely try their best to trade him for 2nd round picks. Teams who would likely make the trade:

Jags
Texans (depending on how much/if Watson ends up sucking)
Cardinals (Palmer is likely done)
Jets
Bills

Texans have Watson, and two of these team will get early first round QBs. Why cant we just extend/restructure Smith?

jLoy88 · 10-12-2017, 04:29 PM

I love Alex. He is the reason I am a Chiefs fan. I am from Utah and went to most of his college games. I felt he was done dirty by Harbaugh and I couldn't support the 49ers after they cut him during his best season off the heels of an NFCCG. With that said... it only makes sense to trade him after this year. With the season he is having he is guaranteed to bring a first round draft pick and some role players in any package someone puts together for him. His hit to the cap next season is $20m and to get the most out of Mahomes rookie deal we would need to cut him loose. It sucks but thats the reality of this situation. Alex is worth far more to another team and conversely the Chiefs by being traded. Let's all enjoy this year of him though and hope we get our SB.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 10-12-2017, 09:08 PM

**RealSNR** · 10-12-2017, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jLoy88

I love Alex. He is the reason I am a Chiefs fan. I am from Utah and went to most of his college games. I felt he was done dirty by Harbaugh and I couldn't support the 49ers after they cut him during his best season off the heels of an NFCCG. With that said... it only makes sense to trade him after this year. With the season he is having he is guaranteed to bring a first round draft pick and some role players in any package someone puts together for him. His hit to the cap next season is $20m and to get the most out of Mahomes rookie deal we would need to cut him loose. It sucks but thats the reality of this situation. Alex is worth far more to another team and conversely the Chiefs by being traded. Let's all enjoy this year of him though and hope we get our SB.

See? This is the kind of Alex fan I like having around. This guy knows the true value of Alex to this franchise in the longterm view comes through trade. Nothing wrong with being a fan of Smith and seeing the bigger picture.

**Easy 6** · 10-13-2017, 04:23 PM

If we go all the way and win it, Smith definitely deserves a shot at coming back to defend the title

Anything less than that, and it only makes sense to move on... Alex isnt getting any younger, and we'd be wasting 2 years of Pats 'cheap' rookie deal

RunKC · 10-13-2017, 07:41 PM

If Alex gets us to the SB it's because he's playing like he currently is. Right now he's playing like Rodgers.

You don't just trade that off.

Hammock Parties · 10-16-2017, 10:00 AM

RobBlake · 10-16-2017, 10:23 AM

Because mahomes will get 450 yards 4 tds each game

Discuss Thrower · 10-16-2017, 10:41 AM

Because Mahomes can't throw catchable passes to Demarcus Robinson.

That never happened in the preseason at all behind a garbage offensive line.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 10-16-2017, 11:43 AM

It's only one game.

RunKC · 10-16-2017, 12:20 PM

Mahomes vs that defense with 3/5 OL out, #2 and #3 WR's out and his best blocking RB out?

Would have been a disaster.

threebag · 10-16-2017, 01:07 PM

They are just here to shit on the thread

09-08-2017, 01:36 PM
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4473447	The possibility of keeping Alex Smith. Alright, let's get down to some nitty gritty here, folks. What if Alex Smith is amazing in 2017? The Chiefs hand will be forced -- keep him. 2018 will be the final year of his contract and it's a $20m cap hit. Not unreasonable for a guy playing extremely well. So, what would the Chiefs have to do? First, we pretty much have the cap met RIGHT NOW, assuming we bring back absolutely no one who is a free agent. So our cap is royally ****ed. The two most popular ideas right now are cutting DJ/Hali, or letting them both retire, or whatever. Cutting them saves us a combined $15m. We likely have DJ's replacements already on the roster, and Ford will be entering his contract year in 2018. We can also cut (or trade) Allen Bailey if we want to elevate RNR to a starting slot. Trading Bailey saves us $8m (and nets us a draft pick or whatever). Cutting him saves us $6m. If Eric Fisher has a really good 2017, maybe we just extend/restructure him at the end of the season. That would lower his cap hit in 2018 (right now it's slated for $14m). I wouldn't touch Allen Bailey, but I'd cut DJ/Hali and extend/restructure Fisher. That allows us to keep Mr. Smith and have roughly $20m in cap space, $5m of which can go to our rookie class. I think it's non-negotiable that we bring back Terrance Mitchell, but he shouldn't cost a ton. Bennie Logan might be a good idea -- although, again, we could just play RNR at the nose and be fine (which is what I would do if we kept Smith on the roster). So my recommendation, keeping Alex rather than trading him: 1. cut/retire DJ 2. cut/retire Hali 3. restructure/extend Fisher 4. extend Terrance Mitchell 5. let basically all of our FAs walk: De'Anthony, Fulton, Logan, Sherman, Albert Wilson, Gaines, Colquitt 6. make a few choice re-signings (Santos, KPL, maybe Gaines?) That'll leave us thin at DL, OL, and OLB -- which I hate. And the best draft pick we'll have in 2018 will be at the very bottom of the 2nd. But hey, if your QB is balling out, who cares? Food for thought.
Posts: 59,240

10-11-2017, 09:54 AM	#151
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2864064	Andy sold in Mcnabb high. If alex plays at this level all year, that's the highest it's gonna get value wise. What are the chances he does it again next year, a year older?
Posts: 81,158

10-11-2017, 03:47 PM	#153
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3357078	If they do keep him, here'd be my plan... Sign: Beau Allen, NT (PHI) (reference A. Woods, D. Square) 2 years, $4 million, $1.5 million signing bonus ~ $1.5 million 2018 Re-Sign: Anthony Sherman, FB (reference P. DiMarco) 4 years, $8.5 million, $2 million signing bonus ~ $2 million 2018 Tyler Bray, QB (reference R. Griffen, K. Clemens, B. Weeden, C. Daniel, etc) 2 years, $2.4 million ~ $1.2 million 2018 Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DL RFA Tender Original Round ~ $1.8 million 2018 Terrance Mitchell, CB (reference B. Carr, J. Lane, M. Cooper, C. Hayward, etc) 4 years, $22 million, $6 million signing bonus, $8 million guaranteed. ~ $3.8 million 2018 Terrance Smith, ILB ERFA Tender ~$630k 2018 Kevin Pierre-Louis, ILB 1 year, vet minimum $790k Phillip Gaines, CB 1 year, vet minimum $790k Estimated 2018 Net Increase Against Cap: $12.5 million Total Cap Space needed: $12.5 + $5 million buffer + $3 million draft = $20.5 million Let walk: LB R. Wilson (RFA) WR D. Thomas WR A. Wilson DB S. Terrell DB K. Acker DL J. Jenkins DL R. Miller OL J. Devey OL Z. Fulton SP D. Colquitt Other Transactions: Retire/Release Derrick Johnson, ILB ($8 million cap space) Retire/Release Tamba Hali, OLB ($7 million cap space) Release Demetrius Harris ($2 million cap space) Convert $6 million of Justin Houston's 2018 salary into a signing bonus (gains $4 million cap space 2018) Total Cap Space Gained: $21 million Roster: QB: A. Smith, P. Mahomes, T. Bray RB: K. Hunt, S. Ware, C. West FB: A. Sherman TE: T. Kelce, R. Travis, ? WR: T. Hill, C. Conley, J. Chesson, D. Robinson, M. Kemp?, G. Deiter? OL: E. Fisher, P. Ehinger, M. Morse, L. Duvernay-Tardif, M. Schwartz, B. Witzman, C. Erving, ?, ? DL: R. Nunez-Roches, C. Jones, A. Bailey, T. Kpassagnon, B. Allen OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, D. Nicolas, F. Zombo, ? ILB: U. Eligwe, R. Ragland, T. Smith, K. Pierre-Louis, ? CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, S. Nelson, D. White, P. Gaines, A. Lampkin DB: E. Berry, R. Parker, D. Sorensen, E. Murray ST: H. Butker, J. Winchester, ? Leaves you some holes at TE, OL, OLB, ILB, and P and maybe WR. You could probably fill 2 of those with cheap vet free agents (esp WR, TE or OL) at the minimum and still have a little buffer for the season, and I don't think the draft will cost the $3 million I have allocated (net cap effect, not total money). You could sign Kemp and Deiter to the 53 for next year and only cost you 960k, so that's a big area to keep the savings IMO.
Posts: 12,532

10-12-2017, 04:29 PM	#155
jLoy88 Starter Join Date: Dec 2013 Casino cash: $9977641	I love Alex. He is the reason I am a Chiefs fan. I am from Utah and went to most of his college games. I felt he was done dirty by Harbaugh and I couldn't support the 49ers after they cut him during his best season off the heels of an NFCCG. With that said... it only makes sense to trade him after this year. With the season he is having he is guaranteed to bring a first round draft pick and some role players in any package someone puts together for him. His hit to the cap next season is $20m and to get the most out of Mahomes rookie deal we would need to cut him loose. It sucks but thats the reality of this situation. Alex is worth far more to another team and conversely the Chiefs by being traded. Let's all enjoy this year of him though and hope we get our SB.
Posts: 549

10-12-2017, 09:08 PM	#156
Sweet Daddy Hate Unsparing Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	__________________ 1. Merciless, severe. 2. Given freely and generously. 100% refusal to overrate 20 year Head Coaches with ZERO **ing rings as a Head Coach. CP's Official Professor of 'Dem Blues for 2019/2020!**
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10-13-2017, 04:23 PM	#158
Easy 6 pie is never free Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: the drivers seat Casino cash: $3847775	If we go all the way and win it, Smith definitely deserves a shot at coming back to defend the title Anything less than that, and it only makes sense to move on... Alex isnt getting any younger, and we'd be wasting 2 years of Pats 'cheap' rookie deal
Posts: 91,561

10-13-2017, 07:41 PM	#159
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $2369611	If Alex gets us to the SB it's because he's playing like he currently is. Right now he's playing like Rodgers. You don't just trade that off. __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
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10-16-2017, 10:00 AM	#160
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4830478	WELP __________________ Chiefs game films
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10-16-2017, 10:23 AM	#161
RobBlake Banned Join Date: Aug 2013 Casino cash: $10011127	Because mahomes will get 450 yards 4 tds each game
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10-16-2017, 10:41 AM	#162
Discuss Thrower "You like to drink?" Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: "I like to drink." Casino cash: $3346869	Because Mahomes can't throw catchable passes to Demarcus Robinson. That never happened in the preseason at all behind a garbage offensive line. __________________ Chiefs 2016 Opponents: Home: JAX, TEN, NO, TB, NYJ. Away: HOU, IND, ATL, CAR, PIT Chiefs 2017 Opponents: Home: BUF, MIA, PHI, WSH, AFC North. Away: NE, NYJ, NYG, DAL, AFC South
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10-16-2017, 11:43 AM	#163
Sweet Daddy Hate Unsparing Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	It's only one game. __________________ 1. Merciless, severe. 2. Given freely and generously. 100% refusal to overrate 20 year Head Coaches with ZERO **ing rings as a Head Coach. CP's Official Professor of 'Dem Blues for 2019/2020!**
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10-16-2017, 12:20 PM	#164
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $2369611	Mahomes vs that defense with 3/5 OL out, #2 and #3 WR's out and his best blocking RB out? Would have been a disaster. __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
Posts: 45,807

10-16-2017, 01:07 PM	#165
threebag Snacks Are Under My Apron Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: The Edge Casino cash: $3111660	They are just here to shit on the thread __________________ Free DeBerg HayWire Greatest Mod Ever In big nasty kcnut we trust
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