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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).
Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 12-16-2012, 09:52 PM   #376
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So is this potential loss by the Pats good for us?
Yes, it makes Denver's game against us more likely to matter to them
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Old 12-16-2012, 09:53 PM   #377
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Yes, it makes Denver's game against us more likely to matter to them
Delicious.
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:04 PM   #378
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:13 PM   #379
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Jags play at noon and we play at 3:15

We will know if we have the top pick or not by gametime.
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:14 PM   #380
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Jags play at noon and we play at 3:15

We will know if we have the top pick or not by gametime.
If they win, yes. If they lose, we must still lose...

It might take until midway through the 2nd quarter before we know in the second scenario.
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:17 PM   #381
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If they win, yes. If they lose, we must still lose...

It might take until midway through the 2nd quarter before we know in the second scenario.
So if they win, we can win or lose and we'll still have the top pick?
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:23 PM   #382
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So if they win, we can win or lose and we'll still have the top pick?
Si.
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:26 PM   #383
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Si.
Oh my bad, we have the tiebreaker duh.
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:26 PM   #384
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:27 PM   #385
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:40 PM   #386
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:51 PM   #387
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:53 PM   #388
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:53 PM   #389
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If the Jags win before our game next week, do we have it?

Chiefs play at 4:25 EST. Jags are noon game.
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:54 PM   #390
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If the Jags win before our game next week, do we have it?

Chiefs play at 4:25 EST. Jags are noon game.
Yes, because if we end up tied with them we own the tiebreaker. So we can win if they win.
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