NFL Draft Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy - Page 2

Mr. Laz · 01-20-2013, 08:13 AM

Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy
By JayhawksNChiefs on Jan 10, 4:04p 422

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...le-in-accuracy

Justin K. Aller

I’m not going to sit here and say that I can predict the future, because I can’t. But I’m pretty sure what the talk on AP will be about for roughly the next three months. There will be an endless discussion (which will end in 3 months) on what the Chiefs are going to do with the number 1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft. While perusing through the limitless comments on AP, one voice prevails through the masses. That voice says, "Draft Geno Smith."

The numbers are impressive. In his career, Mr. Smith threw for 11,662 yards, tallied up 98 touchdowns to only 21 interceptions, and completed 67% of the passes that left his hand. But, many believe those impressive stats are a result of the system he played in. Short screen passes and two explosive receivers that warrant draft talk of their own undoubtedly could inflate any QBs success.

After going through the AP scouting process (YouTube), many can form their own opinion of what they like and don’t like. Depending on the observer, things like arm strength, footwork, poise, accuracy, release, and pocket awareness can all be discerned from prospect to prospect. Opinions are formed and debates ensue on exactly what each prospect can offer.

It was my attempt, in this post, to stray from this type of analysis. I wanted something more objective. You can show 10 different people tape of Geno throwing the ball and you will get 10 different opinions. Some may be similar, but all will vary in one degree or another.

Specifically, I wanted to tackle the debate on Geno’s accuracy. As stated earlier in the post, Geno has a very impressive career completion percentage, one that he was able to increase every year as a starter. Also stated earlier, this percentage is said to be due, in large part, to the short and "easy" passes that he was asked to make.

To explore this idea, I observed 8 games from Geno’s 2012 campaign. Those games were Texas, Texas Tech, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas. I used the YouTube videos of Geno Smith vs. insert opponent here in my research. The goal of this research was relatively simple. One comment in particular sparked the idea when a user stated that, "90% of his passes were screen passes." Well AP, were they?

I present the following chart:

via i1257.photobucket.com

As I watched the games, I charted where each completion and incompletion were in regard to the line of scrimmage. It didn’t matter where the receiver ended up, all that mattered is where he caught it or attempted to catch it. After completing 8 games and 300 throws, I felt I had an adequate and representative sample size.

The double lines running down the middle of the chart can pretty much be thought of as the hash marks on a football field. With the exception, for example, that sometimes the ball can be located on the right hash pre-snap and a pass will be completed with the receiver going over the middle. The receiver might catch it outside of the hash marks, but for all intents and purposes it was a pass over the middle. I thought this better represented the types of throws that he was either missing or hitting.
The “NLOS” (Near Line of Scrimmage) is any pass that is generally within 3 yards of the LOS (i.e. screens, swing passes, and maybe a few shallow drag routes). The “4 to 9” section refers to passes that were completed/attempted within 4 to 9 yards of the line of scrimmage (usually outs, ins, and slants). The farther up the chart you go, the farther the passes were from the LOS. From there, I think most get the idea.

To give an example on how to read the chart, the bottom left section describes that Geno completed 41 of 46 passes (89.1%) that were directed to his left and were near the line of scrimmage. The far right column gives totals for each “level.”
Interesting Notes:

Feel free to take all of the screens away from Geno’s game. He completed 131 out of 213 passes that were 4+ yards past the LOS for a completion percentage of 61.5%.
28% of his pass attempts were NLOS, 33% were from the 4-9 range, and 24% were from 10-20 yards past the LOS.
36% of his pass completions were NLOS (not quite 90%), 32% were from the 4-9 range, and 23% were from 10-20 yards past the LOS.
42% of his passes were directed to the left side of the field.
Geno completed 18 out of 43 passes (42%) that were 21+ yards past the LOS.
Geno is deadly accurate over the middle, check out that middle column. He had 6 of 9 passes that were 31+ yards down field completed, impressive. Geno’s completion percentages in the left, middle, and right were 70%, 72%, and 66% respectively.
Cause for concern? Completing 10/21 for a 48% completion percentage on passes that were 10 – 20 yards downfield and on the right side of the field.
Reason for optimism? Completing 19/28 for a 68% completion percentage on passes that were 10 – 20 yards downfield and on the left side of the field.

These last two notes were of particular importance to myself when doing this evaluation. NFL quarterbacks are separated by what they can do 10 to 20 yards downfield and outside the numbers. I’ll give you a math problem. How far does a ball travel from a quarterback that drops back 5 yards from the LOS, throws it halfway across a football field that is 53 yards wide, and the ball travels 15 yards past the LOS? My buddy, Pythagoras, told me that 15 yard completion is actually about a 33 yard pass. Is he right?

The overall results of the research seem promising. Initially, I defined 15 parts of the field. I had 5 levels of the defense separated by 3 sections. Through my evaluation, Geno was able to effectively attack each of these 15 parts. Not all equally, but he made the defense account for the whole field. Do the screens inflate his completion percentage? Yes, but those passes are hardly a given… cough*Matt Cassel to Eric Weddle*cough. The percentage of those he completes is beyond impressive by itself (88%). And those passes can travel around 20 yards in the air, at times. The only way those plays work are to get the ball there very quickly and very accurately, which Geno does nearly robotically.

I was a Geno Smith fan before I put this together, and this did nothing but confirm my thoughts on him. I have nothing to compare these numbers to, so I’m thinking about doing a similar evaluation on a couple of the other quarterback prospects. In the end, I hope people find this interesting and can find a way to use this information in their own evaluations.

Molitoth · 01-20-2013, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PGM

Yeah, some morons thinks he gets all his yards off of YAC.

Even IF Geno got the majority of his stats via YAC (which is a really inaccurate arguement),... isn't the QB's job to get the ball to his playmakers and avoid turning the ball over? Seems to me he is highly accurate at getting the ball to his receivers.... in turn his receivers JOB is to catch the ball and get YAC.

Did Jerry Rice not inflate Steve Young's numbers? Lots of quick slants there went for tons of YAC.

ArrowheadMagic · 01-20-2013, 10:27 AM

YAC is an important stat in the NFL, especially in the Reid offense. You cant have all 7 step drops and 40 yards passes. Hitting a guy stride creates a lot of the YAC.

Mr. Laz · 01-20-2013, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Molitoth

Even IF Geno got the majority of his stats via YAC (which is a really inaccurate arguement),... isn't the QB's job to get the ball to his playmakers and avoid turning the ball over? Seems to me he is highly accurate at getting the ball to his receivers.... in turn his receivers JOB is to catch the ball and get YAC.

Did Jerry Rice not inflate Steve Young's numbers? Lots of quick slants there went for tons of YAC.

yes, but it also leaves the heavy lifting to the receiver and scheme leaving people to wonder how good the QB really is. Eventually it will lead to defenses to crowd the LOS scrimmage and potentially hurt the running game.

Scheme can help, elusive WR's can help but a QB generally has to stretch the defense vertically to have a consistent offense.

Molitoth · 01-20-2013, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

yes, but it also leaves the heavy lifting to the receiver and scheme leaving people to wonder how good the QB really is. Eventually it will lead to defenses to crowd the LOS scrimmage and potentially hurt the running game.

Scheme can help, elusive WR's can help but a QB generally has to stretch the defense vertically to have a consistent offense.

If you pay attention to WV offense, they dink and dunk the ball until this happens, aNd then you start seeing Geno throw the deep balls.

Tom Brady and the patriots do the same shit.

Crowding the Los against geno gets teams beat.

RINGLEADER · 01-20-2013, 11:12 AM

It's not rocket science. Defenses choked up on the Chiefs withe Cassel and Quinn behind center because they couldn't throw the ball with any accuracy beyond 5 yards (and even then it was a question mark). If you don't have to defend downfield it makes it a lot easier to bottle up the rushing game and defend the short routes. It makes Charles' rushing numbers that much more impressive.

You bring Geno (or any competent QB) into this offense and you're going to see success the second you loosen up defenses and make them respect the throws that these numbers show Geno can make.

Just my $.02.

ArrowheadMagic · 01-20-2013, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

It's not rocket science. Defenses choked up on the Chiefs withe Cassel and Quinn behind center because they couldn't throw the ball with any accuracy beyond 5 yards (and even then it was a question mark). If you don't have to defend downfield it makes it a lot easier to bottle up the rushing game and defend the short routes. It makes Charles' rushing numbers that much more impressive.

You bring Geno (or any competent QB) into this offense and you're going to see success the second you loosen up defenses and make them respect the throws that these numbers show Geno can make.

Just my $.02.

Charles in this new offense could be even more ridiculous. Or grossly under used. But the prospects are exciting.

Chiefshrink · 01-20-2013, 11:48 AM

Laz you are 'THE MAN' !!! Excellent find !!

milkman · 01-20-2013, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink

Laz you are 'THE MAN' !!! Excellent find !!

You know that this is a repost of a post in the original Geno Smith thread.

Bump · 01-20-2013, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PGM

Yeah, some morons thinks he gets all his yards off of YAC.

I know right, don't you wanna just bitch slap those idiots.

KCrockaholic · 01-20-2013, 11:52 AM

Damn, CP is getting behind these days. Too many poop threads clouding our minds I guess.

**hometeam** · 01-20-2013, 11:58 AM

Oldy but goody~

I guess its good it got its own thread becuase it seems a bunch of people hadn't seen it yet.

GENO TRAIN KEEP ON A-ROLLIN

Pasta Little Brioni · 01-20-2013, 12:15 PM

This absolutely deserves it's own thread.

**hometeam** · 01-20-2013, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PGM

This absolutely deserves it's own thread.

Sully · 01-20-2013, 12:21 PM

I'm in the Geno camp for now. I have a couple of problems with conclusions drawn in the article, but it's well done. I think he's missing on a point, though.
NFL accuracy isn't just about completing the pass, but also about where he puts the ball on the receiver. I'd like to see a breakdown of that, and see it compared with other QBs. The "dreaded" (yeah, I know... Doesn't make sense as an argument against) YAC bodes well for this, though.

Sorter · 01-20-2013, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sully

I'm in the Geno camp for now. I have a couple of problems with conclusions drawn in the article, but it's well done. I think he's missing on a point, though.
NFL accuracy isn't just about completing the pass, but also about where he puts the ball on the receiver. I'd like to see a breakdown of that, and see it compared with other QBs. The "dreaded" (yeah, I know... Doesn't make sense as an argument against) YAC bodes well for this, though.

This would be an awesome but time-consuming idea. I like it.

01-20-2013, 08:13 AM
Mr. Laz Don't Tease Me Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: KS Casino cash: $11047037	Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy By JayhawksNChiefs on Jan 10, 4:04p 422 http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...le-in-accuracy Justin K. Aller I’m not going to sit here and say that I can predict the future, because I can’t. But I’m pretty sure what the talk on AP will be about for roughly the next three months. There will be an endless discussion (which will end in 3 months) on what the Chiefs are going to do with the number 1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft. While perusing through the limitless comments on AP, one voice prevails through the masses. That voice says, "Draft Geno Smith." The numbers are impressive. In his career, Mr. Smith threw for 11,662 yards, tallied up 98 touchdowns to only 21 interceptions, and completed 67% of the passes that left his hand. But, many believe those impressive stats are a result of the system he played in. Short screen passes and two explosive receivers that warrant draft talk of their own undoubtedly could inflate any QBs success. After going through the AP scouting process (YouTube), many can form their own opinion of what they like and don’t like. Depending on the observer, things like arm strength, footwork, poise, accuracy, release, and pocket awareness can all be discerned from prospect to prospect. Opinions are formed and debates ensue on exactly what each prospect can offer. It was my attempt, in this post, to stray from this type of analysis. I wanted something more objective. You can show 10 different people tape of Geno throwing the ball and you will get 10 different opinions. Some may be similar, but all will vary in one degree or another. Specifically, I wanted to tackle the debate on Geno’s accuracy. As stated earlier in the post, Geno has a very impressive career completion percentage, one that he was able to increase every year as a starter. Also stated earlier, this percentage is said to be due, in large part, to the short and "easy" passes that he was asked to make. To explore this idea, I observed 8 games from Geno’s 2012 campaign. Those games were Texas, Texas Tech, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas. I used the YouTube videos of Geno Smith vs. insert opponent here in my research. The goal of this research was relatively simple. One comment in particular sparked the idea when a user stated that, "90% of his passes were screen passes." Well AP, were they? I present the following chart: via i1257.photobucket.com As I watched the games, I charted where each completion and incompletion were in regard to the line of scrimmage. It didn’t matter where the receiver ended up, all that mattered is where he caught it or attempted to catch it. After completing 8 games and 300 throws, I felt I had an adequate and representative sample size. The double lines running down the middle of the chart can pretty much be thought of as the hash marks on a football field. With the exception, for example, that sometimes the ball can be located on the right hash pre-snap and a pass will be completed with the receiver going over the middle. The receiver might catch it outside of the hash marks, but for all intents and purposes it was a pass over the middle. I thought this better represented the types of throws that he was either missing or hitting. The “NLOS” (Near Line of Scrimmage) is any pass that is generally within 3 yards of the LOS (i.e. screens, swing passes, and maybe a few shallow drag routes). The “4 to 9” section refers to passes that were completed/attempted within 4 to 9 yards of the line of scrimmage (usually outs, ins, and slants). The farther up the chart you go, the farther the passes were from the LOS. From there, I think most get the idea. To give an example on how to read the chart, the bottom left section describes that Geno completed 41 of 46 passes (89.1%) that were directed to his left and were near the line of scrimmage. The far right column gives totals for each “level.” Interesting Notes: Feel free to take all of the screens away from Geno’s game. He completed 131 out of 213 passes that were 4+ yards past the LOS for a completion percentage of 61.5%. 28% of his pass attempts were NLOS, 33% were from the 4-9 range, and 24% were from 10-20 yards past the LOS. 36% of his pass completions were NLOS (not quite 90%), 32% were from the 4-9 range, and 23% were from 10-20 yards past the LOS. 42% of his passes were directed to the left side of the field. Geno completed 18 out of 43 passes (42%) that were 21+ yards past the LOS. Geno is deadly accurate over the middle, check out that middle column. He had 6 of 9 passes that were 31+ yards down field completed, impressive. Geno’s completion percentages in the left, middle, and right were 70%, 72%, and 66% respectively. Cause for concern? Completing 10/21 for a 48% completion percentage on passes that were 10 – 20 yards downfield and on the right side of the field. Reason for optimism? Completing 19/28 for a 68% completion percentage on passes that were 10 – 20 yards downfield and on the left side of the field. These last two notes were of particular importance to myself when doing this evaluation. NFL quarterbacks are separated by what they can do 10 to 20 yards downfield and outside the numbers. I’ll give you a math problem. How far does a ball travel from a quarterback that drops back 5 yards from the LOS, throws it halfway across a football field that is 53 yards wide, and the ball travels 15 yards past the LOS? My buddy, Pythagoras, told me that 15 yard completion is actually about a 33 yard pass. Is he right? The overall results of the research seem promising. Initially, I defined 15 parts of the field. I had 5 levels of the defense separated by 3 sections. Through my evaluation, Geno was able to effectively attack each of these 15 parts. Not all equally, but he made the defense account for the whole field. Do the screens inflate his completion percentage? Yes, but those passes are hardly a given… coughMatt Cassel to Eric Weddlecough. The percentage of those he completes is beyond impressive by itself (88%). And those passes can travel around 20 yards in the air, at times. The only way those plays work are to get the ball there very quickly and very accurately, which Geno does nearly robotically. I was a Geno Smith fan before I put this together, and this did nothing but confirm my thoughts on him. I have nothing to compare these numbers to, so I’m thinking about doing a similar evaluation on a couple of the other quarterback prospects. In the end, I hope people find this interesting and can find a way to use this information in their own evaluations.
Posts: 95,626

01-20-2013, 10:27 AM	#17
ArrowheadMagic Veteran Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: OPKS Casino cash: $8203465	YAC is an important stat in the NFL, especially in the Reid offense. You cant have all 7 step drops and 40 yards passes. Hitting a guy stride creates a lot of the YAC.
Posts: 3,851

01-20-2013, 11:12 AM	#20
RINGLEADER In Search of a Life Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Confusion, USA Casino cash: $8620503	It's not rocket science. Defenses choked up on the Chiefs withe Cassel and Quinn behind center because they couldn't throw the ball with any accuracy beyond 5 yards (and even then it was a question mark). If you don't have to defend downfield it makes it a lot easier to bottle up the rushing game and defend the short routes. It makes Charles' rushing numbers that much more impressive. You bring Geno (or any competent QB) into this offense and you're going to see success the second you loosen up defenses and make them respect the throws that these numbers show Geno can make. Just my $.02.
Posts: 46,691

01-20-2013, 11:52 AM	#25
KCrockaholic Sarcasm Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Olathe Casino cash: $4802900	Damn, CP is getting behind these days. Too many poop threads clouding our minds I guess.
Posts: 21,133

01-20-2013, 11:58 AM	#26
hometeam Supporter Join Date: Jul 2011 Casino cash: $4151956	Oldy but goody~ I guess its good it got its own thread becuase it seems a bunch of people hadn't seen it yet. GENO TRAIN KEEP ON A-ROLLIN
Posts: 10,636

01-20-2013, 12:15 PM	#27
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $4028880	This absolutely deserves it's own thread. __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
Posts: 68,365

01-20-2013, 12:21 PM	#29
Sully It Goes On Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Lees Summit Casino cash: $10026331	I'm in the Geno camp for now. I have a couple of problems with conclusions drawn in the article, but it's well done. I think he's missing on a point, though. NFL accuracy isn't just about completing the pass, but also about where he puts the ball on the receiver. I'd like to see a breakdown of that, and see it compared with other QBs. The "dreaded" (yeah, I know... Doesn't make sense as an argument against) YAC bodes well for this, though. __________________ "And I don't wish that girl any bad luck," he said, "but I hope she gets hit with a car." - Tommy Lasorda
Posts: 18,295