Walter Football is really, really, really sure the Chiefs will lose Sunday.

[Direckshun]

I know, who cares. But still worth entertaining his arguments.

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflpicks2015_11late.php

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-7)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 44.

The Game. Edge: None.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: If the Chargers weren't already 2-7, I'd say that the bye week came at the right time for them. That's because they were dealing with numerous injuries, particularly up front. Several offensive linemen have been missing, including Orlando Franklin and King Dunlap. Both linemen practiced Wednesday, and it appears as though they'll play. If so, it'll provide a huge boost for San Diego's scoring attack, which has had to rely on checkdown passes to move the chains for the most part.

If Rivers is able to get enough time in the pocket, he'll probably be able to exploit an easy matchup. The Chiefs have struggled against the pass all year; battling a decrepit Peyton Manning helped their rankings, but they were around 20 in terms of defensive YPA prior to playing Denver. Rivers isn't playing like a dying animal, unlike his veteran counterpart, so he'll be able to take advantage of the holes in Kansas City's defense.

The Chiefs have been solid against the rush, so don't expect much from Melvin Gordon. The rookie runner has been ineffective for the most part, so perhaps the Chargers have discovered during the bye week that minimizing his touches would be for the best.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chargers have some injury concerns as well on this side of the ball. Corey Liuget and Manti Te'o are some of the players who were hurt going into the bye, while Eric Weddle didn't look the same while returning from his injury against the Ravens. A week off will be a huge boost for him. It's unclear if Liuget and/or Te'o will return yet, but they both practiced Wednesday, which is a great sign.

Having Weddle around will be crucial to help defend Travis Kelce, who is just one of two key players in Kansas City's aerial attack. Jeremy Maclin is the other, and Jason Verrett can handle him. Alex Smith, as a result, will continue to toss checkdowns. Actually, he was going to do that anyway, so I don't know why I even bothered writing this paragraph.

The Chiefs, however, will run the ball well; Charcandrick West trampled the Broncos, and San Diego has one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL. That's where Liuget and Te'o come in. Liuget is the team's best rush defender, while Te'o will allow the Chargers to take the inept Donald Butler off the field on all three downs.

RECAP: This is my October NFL Pick of the Month. I didn't have an October NFL Pick of the Month because my selections were terrible back then. They still stink, but not nearly as bad as they did prior to Week 8. At any rate, here are the reasons I'm taking the Chargers for eight units:

1. I love Rivers' matchup against the Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs' defensive numbers have gotten better lately, thanks to a slew of terrible quarterbacks they've battled. Manning, as mentioned, was playing on just one leg. Before that, it was Matthew Stafford, who has been awful. Before that, Landry Jones. Before that, Teddy Bridgewater, who didn't have to throw very much. The Chiefs haven't battled a team with a strong passing attack since Week 4, and Cincinnati won that game in a blowout, 36-21.

2. The players the Chargers will be getting back from injury will help. I already listed all of the names. I'm sure all of them won't return, but it sounds like most of them will, which means the Chargers will have better talent on the field.

3. The Chiefs don't have the greatest history in San Diego. The Chargers have won five of the previous six meetings at this location, and the one victory was by only three points.

4. This spread makes no sense. Who are the Chiefs to be laying three points on the road? They're average at best, while San Diego has been in every game this year, save for the Week 3 Minnesota contest in which the entire offensive line went down. The Chargers are not as bad as their record indicates. Plus, think about it: This spread, if it were in Kansas City, would be -9. That's absurd. The Chiefs were just 4.5-point favorites over the Lions at a neutral site!

5. I don't think the Chiefs will be 100-percent focused for this game. They're coming off a statement victory over the Broncos. I think they'll buy too much into that, when in reality, Denver isn't very good any longer. This has "letdown" written all over it.

6. The Chargers, on the contrary, are coming off a bye, so they've had extra time to game plan for this matchup. Rivers is 4-5 straight up, 2-7 against the spread off a bye, but he has been a favorite or one-point underdog in every instance. This is a different dynamic.

7. Speaking of trends, everyone knows how great Andy Reid is off a bye. Chris Berman mentioned it 5,000 times this past week. What everyone barely talks about is how bad Reid is two weeks following the bye. He's just 4-10 against the spread in those situations.

8. It's too early to tell what the sharps are doing, but the public is hitting up the Chiefs at a 2:1 clip. It never hurts to be on the same side as the books.

Again, eight units on the Chargers, and I'm locking this in just in case the spread drops. I don't know which way the line will go, but +3 to +2.5 isn't worth the risk of seeing +3 go to +3.5. If you're with me, good luck. If you're against me, well, you're probably going to win money this week, based on how awful my selections have been.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Chiefs 24
Chargers +3 (8 Units - October NFL Pick of the Month)
Over 44 (0 Units)

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Stevie Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Ladarius Green

Rivers still has weapons, and he's playing lights out.

Is that the same Stevie Johnson that wrecked Berry's knee?

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Stevie Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Ladarius Green

Rivers still has weapons, and he's playing lights out.

Meh, whatever. They're 2-7.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Is that the same Stevie Johnson that wrecked Berry's knee?

The very same.

[fan4ever]

Aside from the injuries, I don't see coming off the bye as a big advantage; it takes about 15 minutes to game plan against our offense.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Green might not even play this week.

Good. I think that guy is very underrated, especially with Labia Rivers throwing him the ball.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Is that the same Stevie Johnson that wrecked Berry's knee?

Yes, yes it is. And would you look at that.....Berry is starting to turn it on for real these days.....

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

Aside from the injuries, I don't see coming off the bye as a big advantage; it takes about 15 minutes to game plan against our offense.

That's the good news.....San Diego's defense B-L-O-W-S

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Right back atcha'...

Let me guess. You still think Eric Fisher was the wrong pick.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Is that the same Stevie Johnson that wrecked Berry's knee?

If I were a Mets fan, I'd suggest that we throw baseballs at him.

[Mother****erJones]

WalterFootball is pure comic relief nothing more nothing less.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by TEX

Exactly the case. At LEAST 3 balls were flat out dropped by the Chiefs week 2. One came on the drive when Manning abused Flemming. Had they made ONE of those plays in ANY of those situations, it's a different season for KC AND Denver and Manning's demise is talked about much sooner than week 10.




Now, back to the thread topic - I can easily see KC losing to the Bolts - especially after they STOMPED the DONX - the same way they lost to Oakland last year after beating Seattle. Why?

Because Chiefs...

I don't think this is comparable to the week after the Seattle game at all. That was a close, gruelingly physical, slug fest of a game.
Then, I believe, the Raiders game was played on Thursday night. The team was beat all to hell.
Even if not, I see no way how you could compare the two.

Also, I don't see why everyone acts as if the shitty pass defense that we showed earlier in the season is the one we should expect, considering this is the same group that did not allow a 300 yard passer all season last year. The only major difference is the addition of Peters who is a massive upgrade.

All of that said, this game is far from a lock. Every game the Chargers have played has been close, and they are due a win, considering how many close ones they have lost. I do not think they are as bad as their record would indicate.

This defense will be one of the top units in the league from here out. Of that I have no doubt. They have their confidence back after the massive deflation that happened after the home loss to Denver.

[notorious]

The Chiefs can easily lose this game.


Put in Chase Daniel. It's the only way to guarantee a win against SD (short of the refs completely ****ing up).

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

Meh, whatever. They're 2-7.

I don't think a single loss has been by double digits, and they have had a chance to win every one of those games.

[mcaj22]

when did Walter sell his 1998 coded geocities site to the devil that is fox sports

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

Who steps up for the chargers in place of Keenan Allen and Malcolm Floyd?

And DJ Fluker was diagnosed with a concussion today so he's out.

The Chiefs defense *should* be in Rivers face all day.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Stevie Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Ladarius Green

Rivers still has weapons, and he's playing lights out.

Rivers is playing fairly well but he is literally ALL they have. Those guys you listed are all scrubs.