First Round Mock 2.0 (w/Projected Trades)

[kccrow]

1-01 | Cleveland Browns | Sam Darnold, QB, Southern California
The Browns have to find a blue-chip QB prospect this year. They have Taylor on rent, but I doubt trading for him was a plan for the long-term. Darnold checks the boxes you want for the face of your franchise and doesn’t come with the inaccuracy question marks that Josh Allen presents.
1-02 | Buffalo Bills | Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Projected trade with New York Giants
Reports are that the Bills really want to get to #2, but the Giants are hesitant if Darnold falls to them. All the pundits are spewing out propaganda for Josh Allen, but the Bills have met with Baker four times. They want Mayfield and they need to get ahead of Denver to do it for sure and the Dolphins are certainly prepped to make a move up for him too. The Bills will likely give up some major capital, which should include their two first-round picks and a first next year.
1-03 | New York Jets (f/IND) | Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
The Jets can ill-afford to try the Hackenberg experiment 2.0 (If that sounds a lot like Hindenburg, you’re probably correct) but they seem enamored with Allen’s traits in the same way they were with Hack’s. Maybe the Jets will get lucky, but QBs with accuracy issues tend to flame out in the league.
1-04 | Cleveland Browns (f/HOU) | Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
A lot of people out there are clamoring for the Browns to take Barkley first overall, but I simply do not see that happening. As a matter of fact, that can’t happen. The Browns will be rewarded for exercising patience, however. Nobody is trading up to #2 if it isn’t for a QB and the Jets didn’t trade to #3 for a RB. Barkley will give the Browns a dynamic rushing and receiving threat for years to come.
1-05 | Miami Dolphins | Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
Projected trade with the Denver Broncos
With John Elway missing out on the mobile, competitive, arrogant, reflection of his former-self that is Baker Mayfield, I see him being tempted to trade out of the spot if the right value comes along. The Dolphins appear hell-bent on securing a new QB this year, and while they may not need to move this far I think they’ll make sure that Arizona can’t come sneaking ahead of them. The pundits can say what they want about Josh Rosen’s demeanor, but the truth is that he’s the best pure pocket QB in this class and getting him at 5 would be a major bonus.
1-06 | Indianapolis Colts (f/NYJ) | Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State
The Colts will likely run to the podium with Chubb still sitting here at six after a trade down from three. Chubb is a definite need for the Colts since John Simon is more of a reserve level player and Sheard is not elite. Not only does Chubb bring an every-down pass rush, but he’s also an A-level run defender that will set his edge.
1-07 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
Tampa Bay’s entire draft should really go towards protecting Jamis Winston before he’s carted off in a body bag instead of a stretcher. Every spot along the offensive line is terrible, but left tackle and both guard spots are atrocious. Nelson just may be the best overall football player in this entire class and should immediately be an All-Pro.
1-08 | Chicago Bears | Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
The Bears have yet to re-sign Jerrell Freeman and his constant problems with PEDs, including finishing out a suspension that stems from last season, looms large in that situation. The Bears also lost their stud backup, Christian Jones, to the rival Lions. The Bears need a stud at ILB ala their glory years of the past. Edmunds is a do-it-all type that can play inside or out, has the range to play sideline-to-sideline and cover, as well as the twitch and power to rush the passes. As an added bonus, Edmunds comes with NFL-ready size at 6’4” 253.
1-09 | Washington Redskins | Vita Vea, DT, Washington
Projected trade with San Francisco 49ers
The Redskins were terrible against the run last year and a big reason was that they had nobody at NT. The tides are turning defensively for Washington as they seem to be doing a house-cleaning. I expect them to go aggressively for players that will help them change their attitude on that side of the football. Vea is a mammoth that is near impossible to move off the ball and has the agility and quickness to cause havoc in the backfield similar to a young Haloti Ngata.
1-10 | Oakland Raiders | Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The Raiders’ linebackers have been flat-out terrible for several season now and they really need to get a blue-chipper on the interior. Tahir Whitehead was a nice signing, but new additions Kyle Wilber and Emmanuel Lamur are more-or-less journeymen backups and special teams players. Smith provides the Raiders with that rangy, cover linebacker that can come down in run support that they’ve desperately needed and will pair up well with more of a downhill run thumper in Whitehead.
1-11 | Denver Broncos (f/MIA) | Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama
Projected trade with Miami Dolphins
Missing out on Baker Mayfield may not be the end of the world for Denver as they get a chance to move down and gain resources to re-tool their defense. With the pending Adam Gotsis situation, the Broncos could look at DaRon Payne here. I see the Broncos looking to bolster their secondary once again after letting go of Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby playing on his 5th year option.
1-12 | New York Giants (f/CIN via BUF) | Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas San-Antonio
Projected trade with Buffalo Bills
No matter which scheme new DC Bottcher employs, and it will likely be a 3-4 hybrid, the Giants need help on the edge. Sending Jason Pierre-Paul didn’t help matters, so I look for New York to stand pat at 2 and take Chubb or trade down with the thought they can still secure Davenport. Davenport has the size to play base end in a 4-3 or the movement skills to stand up in a 3-4.
1-13 | San Francisco 49ers | Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
Projected trade with Washington Redskins
Signing Richard Sherman took some pressure off of finding someone to play opposite Akhello Witherspoon, but he isn’t a long-term solution at 29 and he’s coming off of an Achilles rupture that may not have him at 100%. I could see the 49ers opting for another weapon for Jimmy G, but fixing that horrendous secondary has to be priority one.
1-14 | Green Bay Packers | Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
The Packers, despite pouring resources into the position, still have huge needs at CB. Their young players have yet to really ascend and it’s been a problem. The fact that they traded one of their few decent options in the secondary, Demarious Randall, to Cleveland just compounds the issue. Despite only 14 starts, Jackson looks to have lock-down CB ability and is an absolute ball-hawk.
1-15 | Arizona Cardinals | Derwin James, SS, Florida State
The Cardinals have a laundry list of needs and QB and WR are certainly up there, but they appear to be out of the running for the 1st round guys unless they are comfortable with Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph here. After letting Tyrann Mathieu go, the Cardinals really need a leader on defense and James is all of that and more. James is a thumper that can be the guy pressed up closer to the line while also having the coverage ability to stick with TEs while Budda Baker can play the high safety role.
1-16 | Baltimore Ravens | Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
What team has cycled through more trash at WR than the Baltimore Ravens? While they did sign Michael Crabtree, who happens to be getting rather long in the tooth, as well as a nice slot in John Brown, they still lack an true #1 guy on the outside. Ridley has it all when you look for a receiver, with solid size, speed, quickness, and hands.
1-17 | Los Angeles Chargers | DaRon Payne, DT, Alabama
The Chargers really need some help up front next to their star edge setters to help take some of the pressure off. Payne can buckle down against the run but has the athleticism to push the pocket and get to the QB should the edge guys receive too much attention.
1-18 | Indianapolis Colts | Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
Projected trade with the Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks lack 2nd and 3rd round picks this season, so I see them trying to get out of 18 to gain some draft capital. With 3 picks in the 2nd, the Colts have the ammunition to get back up into 1st while also retaining a high 2nd rounder. With a switch to an attacking 4-3 defense and Bradley Chubb already on board on the edge, the Colts need to get an under-tackle that can destroy the pocket and Maurice Hurst is one of the few defensive tackles in this draft that has shown a consistent and relentless pass rush.
1-19 | Dallas Cowboys | D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland
The Cowboys have several major issues heading into 2018, especially now that they’ve release Dez Bryant. With WR, FS, and ILB huge question marks, the Cowboys will have to decide what to prioritize. What it comes down to, in my mind, is that it’s going to be very difficult to secure a #1 wideout later in the draft compared to those other positions. Moore is an explosive player with excellent size and leaping ability that is accustomed to making contested short and intermediate throws in a power conference.
1-20 | Detroit Lions | Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
While Detroit upgraded their WLB spot with the signing of rival Christian Jones, I don’t think they’ll sit on penciling in Devon Kennard at the strong side after the departure of Tahir Whitehead. The Lions have been weak at linebacker for years and it’s time they step up and get a difference-maker. Vander Esch has the range to be a sideline-to-sideline player and the play strength at the point of attack to be a downhill defender, plus he has excellent NFL size.
1-21 | Cincinnati Bengals (f/BUF) | James Daniels, OC, Iowa
The Bengals offensive line is a mess from one end to the other, sans Clint Boling and perhaps Cordy Glenn (can he stay healthy?). The Bengals have to find interior help and Daniels is the perfect fit as he’s an absolute stud. Daniels has elite quickness and movement to go with sound technique, as should be expected from an Iowa lineman.
1-22 | New York Giants (f/KC via BUF) | Billy Price, OC, Ohio State
Projected trade with Buffalo Bills
The Giants knew heading into this offseason that they needed to bolster the trenches, so they added LT Nate Solder (NE) and LG Patrick Omameh (JAX) to help in that effort but they still need a center. Price may be the best offensive lineman in the draft behind only Quenton Nelson, but a partial pectoral tear at the combine may be a reason he slides a bit. Even if his rehab takes 4 months, he’ll be ready for training camp so he’s a pretty safe pick yet. Price is a beast in every facet of the game and an All-American at OG (2016) and OC (2017).
1-23 | New England Patriots (f/LAR) | Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
The Patriots brought in Jason McCourty via trade with Cleveland, but he’s more-or-less a one-year rental to help absorb the atrocity that was the Malcolm Butler situation. In any event, the Pats will be looking for long-term help at the CB position and Alexander fits well with great speed, quickness, and agility to go along with solid technique to stick with receivers like glue out of their breaks.
1-24 | Carolina Panthers | Justin Reid, FS, Stanford
The Panthers have yet to adequately replace Eric Coleman at FS in free agency and are probably going to look at the draft for that guy. Reid fits everything that Ron Rivera wants at safety with outstanding athleticism, physicality, smarts, and leadership. Reid is a plug-and-play type of defender that will help out Carolina’s secondary that lacks talent and depth overall.
1-25 | Tennessee Titans | Harold Landry, LB, Boston College
The Titans don’t have too many glaring needs, but one area of concern is generating more of a pass rush and planning for Brian Orakpo’s age and expiring contract following this season. Landry is one of the better edge players in this year’s draft, but his production dipped from 16.5 sacks in 2016 to only 5 in 2017 and that could correspond with a dip in his draft status.
1-26 | Atlanta Falcons | Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
Aside from Grady Jarrett and Takkarist McKinley, the Falcons’ depth chart along the D-line is either blank, or is very subpar. They need a huge infusion of talent in that front 4 and will likely have to spend at least 3 draft picks there, including 2 very early. Bryan provides another penetrating defensive lineman to pair with Jarrett who is turning into a quality player.
1-27 | New Orleans Saints | Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State
The Saints don’t have a lot of huge holes to fill, so I’d expect them to either get a weapon for Brees or some protection for him at guard. That said, the Saints have really lacked a threat at the TE position since Jimmy Graham was dealt away and it’s a piece I feel is integral to this team taking the next step forward. Gesicki is an outstanding vertical threat in the passing game with excellent size, speed, hands, and route running. He’ll need to learn to block over time, but they don’t need him for that as much as they need Brees to have a safety valve.
1-28 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
I know the Steelers need ILBs, but calling for them to reach a bit seems very un-Steeler-like. While the Steelers could opt to try Jerald Hawkins at RT after the departure of Chris Hubbard to Cleveland, it’ll be hard for them to pass on Mike McGlinchy here and plug him right in.
1-29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
The Jaguars have to find a way to either pressure Blake Bortles or replace him in the near future, and I have them doing the latter. Jackson is a live-armed QB with outstanding athleticism in the mold of a Michael Vick. The kid is a play-maker, and it’s hard to argue he can’t have some success in the NFL. I think the primary concern for Jackson will be much like that of Teddy Bridgewater or Robert Griffin III with a slender build and skinny knees that will lead to durability questions, especially given his play style.
1-30 | Minnesota Vikings | Will Hernandez, OG, Texas El-Paso
The Vikings need to continue to upgrade the trenches offensively and Tom Compton isn’t exactly going to set the world on fire. Hernandez, on the other hand, just might. Hernandez is an absolute beast of a man with the “I want to tear your head off” attitude to go with it which probably means the Vikings are going to get one hell of a bargain here.
1-31 | New England Patriots | Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
I really don’t want to mock Miller to the Patriots, but feel as though I almost have to. Antonio Garcia was cleared to play again and is reportedly back up to 290 pounds. If he’s a healthy go, he was drafted to be the heir to Solder. The real issue is whether or not the Pats can trust that he’ll be ready to go this season. Miller, meanwhile, is a virtual Solder clone with length and athleticism but a ton of rawness that will have to be coached up.
1-32 | Kansas City Chiefs (f/PHI) | Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida
Projected trade with the Philadelphia Eagles
The Chiefs explicably traded Marcus Peters this offseason, but it leaves a huge void at the CB position that they can’t be comfortable leaving to David Amerson heading into the season. The Chiefs reportedly love Hughes’ toughness at the line and overall athleticism and playmaking ability. Hughes has some off-field issues in his past and that’ll be cause for concern and may ultimately lead to him being available this late.

[Chief Northman]

So what did we give up?

I for one do not see us trading with Philly. They are devoid 2nd and 3rd round picks and the problem is they would want compensation this year. Interest in the Chiefs extra 2019 2nd rounder would not come from Philly. They want picks now, which KC can’t afford to give up. Trading up in the 2nd is more realistic because of the lesser costs.

I like Hughes, but shudder at what KC does to go get him....

[Quesadilla Joe]

I don't think Denver will go secondary with their first pick. There should be a couple of good CB's available at the top of the second, and Denver is in good shape at S and slot corner. Ridley, Roquan, and Edmunds could be guys they go after if they wind up picking in the 11/12 range.

The Broncos better get an absolute haul if they're going to trade out with Rosen, Chubb, and Nelson sitting there.

[RunKC]

I’m thinking a trade with Dorsey or Ballard is better for us since they both have tons of picks this year.

I think we could easily trade up to 35 or 37 for a 2019 2nd.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Getting Minkah at 11 would be great value though and if Denver is drafting BPA he'd probably be the guy they'd take at that spot..

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I’m thinking a trade with Dorsey or Ballard is better for us since they both have tons of picks this year.

I think we could easily trade up to 35 or 37 for a 2019 2nd.

No way. Lose spots and a year? No way

[Chief Roundup]

I really think this idea of trading into the first round is stupid. It will cost us too much. I hope we stay put. Giving up our 2cd, one of our 3rds and what ever else it would take is just to much of a price to pay.

[KChiefs1]

Draft this year should be crazy but still won’t top what the Chiefs did last year.

[kccrow]

Prepare thyself for book..... ok go.

As you can tell, I really don't care much about trading up into the 1st being "stupid" because it's not about how I feel about your opinion (I actually respect it), it's about what I expect will happen and Veach hinted at as much. As for the compensation, 2(54), 3(86), and 2019 3rd is the likely price. A late 3rd and a future 3rd is hardly a king's ransom to go up and get a CB the Chiefs need.

I'm gonna say this right now, you can scratch off Fitzpatrick, Ward, Alexander, Jackson, Hughes, Oliver, and Davis as being available at 54 because none of them will be. If I'm betting, none will be available outside the top 40. The Chiefs have been heavily scouting a good chunk of that group. After that group, you probably aren't getting a day 1 starter at the position except for maybe a slot guy like Dante Jackson or Parry Nickerson. Now, if you think the Chiefs should wait and trade up on day 2 into the top 40, it's still going to cost at least #86 and could possibly cost #78 depending on how high they go. At that point, you're worried about next year's 3rd being too much extra to pay and with two 2nds, I'm thinking it's a non-issue.

Now, if I do focus on the opinion part and the Chiefs sit at 54, then I wouldn't expect them to get a CB. I think S, OG, or TE would be more likely. If the Chiefs stay put, I'm beginning to think that the talent that will match the selection will lie along the offensive line, so I'd rather they get a really good offensive lineman like maybe a Frank Ragnow, Tyrell Crosby, or Braden Smith to fill that left guard slot. I wouldn't mind a ballhawk safety like Jessie Bates either. I do have to admit that I'm slightly torn myself on what I would like the Chiefs to do. I don't like the secondary as it sits, that's for sure. I really don't trust Amerson to cut it. I'll be posting my annual "what I want mock" in the coming days so you'll see what I decide on then.

To be honest, I'm not overly excited about much of the talent at 3-4 DE that could be there in round 2. I certainly am not up in arms about a Division II prospect there and much of the class is full of 4-3 NT types that can stop the run but really don't have the length and athleticism to play 4i to 5 tech. I'd rather wait on a couple of guys that might take some time to develop in the 4th round range like Jalyn Holmes, R.J. McIntosh, and so on.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe

I don't think Denver will go secondary with their first pick. There should be a couple of good CB's available at the top of the second, and Denver is in good shape at S and slot corner. Ridley, Roquan, and Edmunds could be guys they go after if they wind up picking in the 11/12 range.

The Broncos better get an absolute haul if they're going to trade out with Rosen, Chubb, and Nelson sitting there.

Questions:

Do you think Denver would draft Rosen? They don't seem, to me, to be all that enamored with him.

Trying to justify Nelson being a "must pick" kind of guy for Denver:

Is Connor McGovern good enough to be the future at RG? I really was high on him coming out. It looked like he was really coming on down the stretch last year.

Are there issues with Ronald Leary at LG?

Is Chubb a necessity with being 3 deep at EDGE already?



On compensation for the trade... I wouldn't expect an enormous haul from a team going from 11 to 5. Guessing it would be around a 2nd and a 2nd next year... I mean that'd probably be a premium at that. 15 to 8 in 2016 cost a 3rd and future 2nd with a 6th kicked back. 9 to 4 in 2014 cost a future 1st and future 4th. So, it's going to be between those somewhere. I really don't think you'll get a future 1st unless you aren't getting much this year.

[Coogs]

Philly cutting their CB yesterday might put a crimp in this scenario.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Questions:

Do you think Denver would draft Rosen? They don't seem, to me, to be all that enamored with him.

I really have no idea which QB's the Broncos prefer, but I'd be surprised if they passed on Rosen if he's sitting there at #5.

Originally Posted by kccrow

Trying to justify Nelson being a "must pick" kind of guy for Denver:

Is Connor McGovern good enough to be the future at RG? I really was high on him coming out. It looked like he was really coming on down the stretch last year.

Are there issues with Ronald Leary at LG?

McGovern would probably get first crack at RG if they don't draft anybody. I didn't think he played very well at the end of last year though.

The Broncos say they want to keep Leary at LG, but he played well at RG last year. I'm personally not a huge fan of taking a guard at 5.

Originally Posted by kccrow

Is Chubb a necessity with being 3 deep at EDGE already?

Elway loves pass rushers and corners. Shaq Barrett will be a UFA next year, Ray is about to get slapped with a 5th-year option, and Von is almost 30. I could definitely see them drafting Chubb at 5.

Originally Posted by kccrow

On compensation for the trade... I wouldn't expect an enormous haul from a team going from 11 to 5. Guessing it would be around a 2nd and a 2nd next year... I mean that'd probably be a premium at that. 15 to 8 in 2016 cost a 3rd and future 2nd with a 6th kicked back. 9 to 4 in 2014 cost a future 1st and future 4th. So, it's going to be between those somewhere. I really don't think you'll get a future 1st unless you aren't getting much this year.

The Jets gave up #6 and three 2nd round picks to move from 6 to 3. The Bills, Dolphins, and Cardinals could all be looking to trade up for the last of the top 4 QB's. I think Denver could get three #1's out of Buffalo, I know Peter King mentioned that could be the price for Buffalo to trade with the Giants and Browns...

I also would be surprised if Gettleman trades the pick with two franchise players on the board, but if the Bills offer three ones to come up, he’s going to have to think about it.

Cleveland, picking fourth (or trading)

I think they’d trade only for a ransom, like three ones from Buffalo (at 12) or Miami (at 11), and that’s unlikely.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/16/nf...mqb-peter-king

[BryanBusby]

8 corners going in the first 40 picks? Man, that sound like a real stretch.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I’m thinking a trade with Dorsey or Ballard is better for us since they both have tons of picks this year.

I think we could easily trade up to 35 or 37 for a 2019 2nd.

This is going to happen, fellas.

7) Chiefs are a candidate to trade up for a CB: The Chiefs don't own a first-round pick in this year's draft (they dealt that pick away in the Patrick Mahomes trade last year), but I won't be surprised if they move up from where they're picking in the second round (No. 54 overall). They have a glaring need at cornerback and the top cover men will be long gone by the time they are on the clock if they stay put at No. 54. They need to get into the range of picks 35-40 in order to secure a Day One starter at that position, and many around the league expect them to make that happen.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...oking-to-trade

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

8 corners going in the first 40 picks? Man, that sound like a real stretch.

I listed 7 and no, it isn't a stretch. 6 went in the top 33 last year, with 3 more going before pick 54 (43, 46, and 53). 6 went by pick 38 in 2016, with the 7th going at pick 54. 7 went in the top 50 in 2015. The likelihood of one of the top 7 CBs dropping to 54 is unlikely as defenses continue to shift more and more to sub-packages and defending the pass first.