Alex Fodder

[Meatloaf]

Saw this on CBS Sports. Some unsurprising charts included....

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-...ore-frequently

[Chiefnj2]

10 years, he is who he is.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

When they don't, defenses can cheat up to take away the run and focus defenders in the short area to smother crossing routes and slants (staples of the WCO).

Let's start with this.

- For many years, Alex Smith doesn't throw deep very often. We all agree.

- For all of those years, Alex Smith has had poor pass protecting OLs. This is true.

- For the last recent years, Alex Smith has been an effective QB, and is top 5-7 of all QBs in win %. This is true.



So opposing defenses have known for many years now that Smith doesn't throw deep often.. and that his OLs have not been good at pass protection.

Knowing this... how is he still an effective starter in the league and making large bank to this day? He still has his RBs generating good run production also. Why can't opposing defenses reduce him to an ineffective bench player or get him out of the league?


Would his offensive game be more effective with a more frequent and successful deep game? Of course... but that requires a decent pass pro line and receivers that are skilled in the deep game.

Reid should want to start every year preparing his QB to look deep more frequently... but if the OL fails yet again, you can bet he will go right back to heavy usage of the quick pass game.. as he should.



All of the back and forth is horseshit really... The weapons are now in KC... now it all comes down to the pass pro. It shows up, the deeper pass attempts will follow. But not kidding self... this offense will still thrive most on the run game and quick passes for YAC.

[BossChief]

Those numbers for his downfield passing since 2011 are somewhat scewwed.

His amount of throws each year that traveled 21+ yards in the air:

2005 23 (in 7 starts)
2006 49 (16 starts)
2007 23 (7 starts)
2008 injury
2009 34 (10 starts)
2010 29 (10 starts)
2011 36 (16 starts)
2012 17 (9 starts)
2013 36 (15 starts)
2014 18 (15 starts)


Pretty easy to look at that and say 2014 was CLEARLY the aberration.

[O.city]

If you use win % as a qb qualifier, I'm automatically dismissing you.

Wins obviously matter, but using that as a qb stat just doesn't hold up.

[O.city]

With this set of skill players, he should throw atleast 40 balls of that magnitude. Atleast.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Those numbers for his downfield passing since 2011 are somewhat scewwed.

His amount of throws each year that traveled 21+ yards in the air:

2005 23 (in 7 starts)
2006 49 (16 starts)
2007 23 (7 starts)
2008 injury
2009 34 (10 starts)
2010 29 (10 starts)
2011 36 (16 starts)
2012 17 (9 starts)
2013 36 (15 starts)
2014 18 (15 starts)


Pretty easy to look at that and say 2014 was CLEARLY the aberration.

He attempts 2.5 deep throws a start.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Those clamoring for deep passes understand that against good teams with quality defenses - like those you typically must get past to win anything in the playoffs - you have to stretch the field vertically to consistently move the ball offensively.

It's not about fantasy football. It's about opening up the ****ing field and forcing teams to respect your ability to get the ball outside the first 10 yards.

When they don't, defenses can cheat up to take away the run and focus defenders in the short area to smother crossing routes and slants (staples of the WCO).

I want Alex Smith to throw beyond the sticks on third down occasionally and not check down to a guy running a two-yard cross with no chance of getting the first down.

I want Alex Smith to try to open up the field, which means taking chances and occasionally throwing the ball deep even if your receiver does not have two steps on his defender.

It has nothing to do with any of the reasons you stated. It has to do with being a fan of the team, not the QB (who is afraid to throw deep because PICKS!).

These are the types of things those who have grown up with the Chiefs have heard Len Dawson talk about with every QB other than Trent Green.

And these are some of the reasons the coaching staff is now talking about getting Smith to go against his natural (gun-shy) instinct and make the throws he has the physical ability to make... for the third straight ****ing year.

He wasn't gunshy when Donnie Avery was getting open deep in the 2nd half of 2013.

The cool thing about the upcoming season is we have 3 or 4 guys now that have Donnie Avery's ability or better.

[O.city]

And this whole "his ol hasn't been this or that" is a bit of a stretch. He doesn't do them any favors holding onto the ball

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Pretty easy to look at that and say 2014 was CLEARLY the aberration.

The thing is it isn't JUST throws over 20 yards.

He attempted fewer intermediate passes than MATT CASSEL before he came to KC and that was a huge part of why I wanted no part of him.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

L
- For the last recent years, Alex Smith has been an effective QB, and is top 5-7 of all QBs in win %. This is true.
.

And this is false over his last 22 games.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Those numbers for his downfield passing since 2011 are somewhat scewwed.

His amount of throws each year that traveled 21+ yards in the air:

2005 23 (in 7 starts)
2006 49 (16 starts)
2007 23 (7 starts)
2008 injury
2009 34 (10 starts)
2010 29 (10 starts)
2011 36 (16 starts)
2012 17 (9 starts)
2013 36 (15 starts)
2014 18 (15 starts)


Pretty easy to look at that and say 2014 was CLEARLY the aberration.

What isn't an aberration.....he's only played a full season 3 times (considering 2013 was a full season if he would have played that final game).

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

He attempts 2.5 deep throws a start.

Yup. 2.52

If you buy into the "terrible OL, terrible WRs in 2014" (I do) and throw out 2014s #s, that goes up to 2.744 per game.

That gives a reasonable range of between 40-44 deep passes we should expect from him in 2015.

Personally, I think he will surpass the top end of that because his receivers and tight ends will be far better than he has had to work with in the past, but if he throws 35-40 I'll be happy.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by O.city

And this whole "his ol hasn't been this or that" is a bit of a stretch. He doesn't do them any favors holding onto the ball

It's an excuse. Plain and simple.

His OL in San Francisco was awesome his last two years there. His first OL with the Chiefs was a solid unit and played better than that in the second half.

He has had consistently strong running games throughout those periods, which for MOST QBs means you have a lot of play-action opportunities down the field - or at least take PA shots to make teams worry about giving up the long bomb if they suck up too much on run plays.

As for throwing deep more often... I will buy that 2014 was an outlier, but it's not like it hasn't been an issue throughout his recent, team-driven success. It has. Throwing deep 2.5 times a game is still not enough.

And yeah, he hit Avery deep a few times towards the end of 2013, but he has left a lot more of those throws on the field over the past two years than he has made.

That's why the coaches are constantly talking about getting him to let it rip.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by jspchief

Didn't Smith come out in week 1 last year throwing deep?

Itself like Reid spent all offseason focused on stretching the field, then saw it in action and said "**** that". Smith isn't a deep passer physically, and more importantly, mentally.

Could have been lack of protection as well

when your QB gets hit in under 2 seconds, really hard to go deep

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by BossChief

That gives a reasonable range of between 40-44 deep passes we should expect from him in 2015.

Which would still put him in the bottom third of the league.