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Old 04-19-2017, 08:00 AM  
Eleazar Eleazar is offline
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When will the Democrats win again?

Democrats begin to wonder: When do we win?

For all the roiling anger and energy at the grassroots, the party still fell short in Georgia and Kansas. And Democratic prospects in upcoming elections aren't promising.

By GABRIEL DEBENEDETTI 04/19/17 05:06 AM EDT




As it became clear late Tuesday evening that Jon Ossoff would fall just short of the 50-percent mark in the first round of voting in a suburban Atlanta special election, Democrats back in Washington started leafing through their calendars and asking: When does the winning start?

Ossoff’s moral victory — capturing 48 percent of the vote in a conservative-oriented district — was welcome, but after two successive close-but-no-cigar finishes in House special elections in Georgia and Kansas, a new worry is beginning to set in.

For all the anger, energy, and money swirling at the grassroots level, Democrats didn’t manage to pick off the first two Republican-held congressional seats they contended for in the Trump era, and the prospects aren’t markedly better in the next few House races coming up: the Montana race at the end of May, and the South Carolina contest on June 20.

Their best shot at knocking Donald Trump down a peg appears to be Ossoff’s runoff against Republican Karen Handel, also scheduled for June 20. But the Democrat will be an underdog in that contest, when there won’t be a crowded field of Republicans to splinter the vote.

After that, it’ll be another five months before the New Jersey and Virginia elections for governor, leaving some strategists and lawmakers wondering how to keep the furious rank-and-file voters engaged in fueling and funding the party’s comeback — especially given the sky-high expectations that surrounded Ossoff’s ultimately unsuccessful run at the 50-percent threshold that was necessary to win the seat outright.

“The resistance has it right: they are fighting mad, but they find joy in the fight. And so it’s not that anybody should be expected to gloss over the challenges that we have, or be Pollyanna about our situation as a country or as a party,” said Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz, decrying some of the party’s messaging describing the prospect of an Ossoff loss as devastating. “It’s just that there has to be a sense of momentum that builds over time and that requires that we define our objectives tightly — and that we are prepared to lose more than we win for the time being, but that we understand that we have the vast majority of the American people on our side, and history on our side.”

Democrats have posted a few successes in the opening months of the Trump era. They’ve slowed the new president’s agenda and overperformed in a slew of low-profile state legislative races. By any measure, Ossoff’s strong performance in Georgia and the 20-point swing toward the Democratic nominee in last week’s Kansas special election are impressive accomplishments given the conservative orientation of those districts. But they still fall under the category of loss mitigation, not victories against a president the party loathes.

Now, with Ossoff falling short of an outright win despite an unprecedented surge of campaign cash and national attention — in a district which Hillary Clinton lost by just one point in 2016 — comes the potential for another round of finger-pointing within the party. The worry: that if operatives and voters continue their practice of quietly blaming each other for losses, as they did after a narrow defeat outside of Wichita last week, the current level of runaway enthusiasm and budding trust in the national party leadership could sputter out long before the 2018 midterms.

“Whatever happens over the next few weeks, it’s critical that rank-and-file Democrats feel like the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee] left it all on the playing field,” said longtime party strategist Simon Rosenberg, president of the NDN think tank.

After attorney James Thompson came within seven points of winning the race for CIA Director Mike Pompeo’s old seat in Kansas last week, some leading progressive voices, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, were quick to blame national Democrats for not spending enough time and energy to help Thompson. Since then, DCCC and Democratic National Committee officials have been sure to detail the work they’ve done for the party ahead of Ossoff’s race.

With the approach of a Montana contest that will see national resources poured in while political celebrities like Sanders descend on the state to support candidate Rob Quist, the question Democrats are asking themselves is whether it will be enough — and how to keep the grassroots fires stoked as Trump’s administration passes its first 100 days mark. Trump won Montana by 21 points, after all, and the race in Georgia to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price illustrated that a combination of Republican infighting, the Trump factor and an avalanche of campaign cash still isn’t enough to guarantee Democratic success.

The South Carolina race to replace Budget Director Mick Mulvaney will take place under similarly difficult conditions — in a district Trump won by 18 points, and in a state where he won by 14.

One way to avoid a letdown, some Democrats say, is to train the focus on legislative fights where Democrats have slowed the White House, from its travel ban to the attempt to repeal Obamacare. Party operatives figure pushes like that might be enough to keep the base energized as opportunities to push back on individual policies surface.

“People are responding to Trump, and as long as Trump is in office they will continue to respond,” said Democratic pollster Margie Omero. “There are plenty of other avenues for engagement. Constant meetings and groups popping up all over the country. You have corporate motivated efforts that people are taking to make sure that companies they support have political views that line up with their own. You have the groundswell of activism against [Neil] Gorsuch, and then you have the protests like the tax protest or the climate ones coming down the pike. So there’s lots of opportunity for opposing the president. [Yes,] as long there’s voting people are going to be paying a lot of attention to it. But it goes beyond that.”

The fact that Democrats have picked themselves up off the ground since Election Day to mount a resistance at all creates a positive feedback loop, they believe — pointing to local legislative races as evidence of an optimistic trend.

“The biggest driver of enthusiasm right now is the rejection of Trump and the Trump agenda,” said party strategist Jesse Ferguson, a former top official at the party’s House campaign wing. “There have been far more successes in resisting the Trump administration than anyone would have expected on November 10, whether it’s beating back the health care repeal or some of these special elections in state legislatures, or closer-than-expected congressional races.”

With the political map glaringly free of obvious near-term win opportunities, Schatz believes the party’s messaging needs some refining. In his view, that means officials at the DCCC should cut the doom-and-gloom messaging in their fundraising emails — a significant way the party communicates with backers.

“I don’t mind the occasional call to action that is based on a negative emotion, it’s the declaring final defeat at the start of the third quarter that bugs me. ‘All is lost’ is a preposterous thing to say to a voter or a donor, and to use words like ‘crushing’ is a total misunderstanding of how to motivate people,” he said on Tuesday, just hours before the DCCC sent out a Nancy Pelosi-signed note with the subject line "crushing loss."

“The point to be made here is this is Tom Price’s seat,” he added. "One of the most conservative people in the United States House. And when he vacated his seat nobody thought it was going to be a problem for national Republicans and competitive for us. So if we can keep up this competitiveness, it’s going to be a really interesting year in 2018. But if we define our success as winning in Kansas, Montana, and Georgia, we’re setting ourselves up for potential disappointment.”


http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...-ossoff-237348
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:48 PM   #91
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by BigMeatballBillay View Post
Gerrymandering probably helps the Republicans so im not sure if the Ds will get +20 as far ss governors I havent really followed. I do know McCaskill is done in the senate.

Not sure why Democrats have ran away from the jobs and middle class message but this 24-7 Trump outrage just simply isnt going to work.
24/7 Obama outrage was pretty effective. I'm not a 24/7 Trump rager but I don't see why that can't be effective as well.

Democrats are facing tough numbers in the Senate, but due to the anti-Trump backlash that will likely occur in 2018, Dems should at least hold serve, give or take.

Governorships, though, it's the flipside. Republicans are playing massive amounts of defense in 2018.
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:49 PM   #92
Just Passin' By Just Passin' By is offline
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
As usual, I assume it's beyond your willpower to explain how, exactly, my argument "failed" and how I'm therefore "moving the goalposts."
I posted your argument. I showed the data which demonstrated the argument's lack of validity. You tried moving the goalposts.

Your argument failed. Hell, the 538 article you posted is proof of that, because it's a "yeah, but" article, which is priming the "yeah, but" based precisely on the attempt to get past your failed argument. It's not a big deal to just acknowledge that your take might not hold up across the board.

Look, I get it. Jumping from failed argument to failed argument is what you do. In this case, though, there's no need to act that way. You have the simple out of "This was just the first round. Let's see what happens in the June runoff", as well as the out of just saying there may not be 100% identical developments across the country.
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:51 PM   #93
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It's too early, but Cruz is lagging behind his Democratic opponent in his Texas senate race.
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:51 PM   #94
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
I posted your argument. I showed the data which demonstrated the argument's lack of validity. You tried moving the goalposts.

Your argument failed. Hell, the 538 article you posted is proof of that, because it's a "yeah, but" article, which is priming the "yeah, but" based precisely on the attempt to get past your failed argument. It's not a big deal to just acknowledge that your take might not hold up across the board.

Look, I get it. Jumping from failed argument to failed argument is what you do. In this case, though, there's no need to act that way. You have the simple out of "This was just the first round. Let's see what happens in the June runoff".
This is just reiterating what you've already said. What it isn't doing is explaining how my argument "failed."

My argument is that midterm elections are about generating huge amounts of turnout from your base. Democrats have done that for these two special elections, the Republicans haven't.

By reliable election models that you are free to believe or dismiss, this indicates that the Democrats are poised to make gains in 2018.

Your counterargument was "if they were so good at getting turnout, how come they didn't show any growth from November to now!?"

Any my answer to that, is that the growth is not confined to the past several months.

So...? My argument failed and I moved the goalposts somehow?
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:54 PM   #95
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Dems aren't exactly known as having high turnout for these mid-term congressional elections.
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:58 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
The Kansas and Georgia special elections have already shown a dramatic shift in Democratic vote share.

No they haven't. Tool
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:59 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
24/7 Obama outrage was pretty effective. I'm not a 24/7 Trump rager but I don't see why that can't be effective as well.

Democrats are facing tough numbers in the Senate, but due to the anti-Trump backlash that will likely occur in 2018, Dems should at least hold serve, give or take.

Governorships, though, it's the flipside. Republicans are playing massive amounts of defense in 2018.
Because when Obama took over the economy was still bad and he passed what was sold as a takeover as healthcare and wasn't popular. Trump hasn't done anything besides bomb Syria which will poll well. If Republicans are smart they will take ownership of the economy if it's still doing well next year. That alone will be able for them to retain some in '18. A very important difference than 2010.
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:02 PM   #98
Just Passin' By Just Passin' By is offline
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
This is just reiterating what you've already said. What it isn't doing is explaining how my argument "failed."

My argument is that midterm elections are about generating huge amounts of turnout from your base. Democrats have done that for these two special elections, the Republicans haven't.

By reliable election models that you are free to believe or dismiss, this indicates that the Democrats are poised to make gains in 2018.

Your counterargument was "if they were so good at getting turnout, how come they didn't show any growth from November to now!?"

Any my answer to that, is that the growth is not confined to the past several months.

So...? My argument failed and I moved the goalposts somehow?
Remember back, and take a look at your baseline positions:

Quote:
Democrats, by the way, are performing well above their standard showings in these districts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
The Kansas and Georgia special elections have already shown a dramatic shift in Democratic vote share.
Your argument, eventually, was to point to vote share. You were explicit

Quote:
What should be considered here is share of the vote, not raw vote totals.

Turnout in a special election simply isn't going to be as high as in a presidential year election.
My response was to note that the Republican vote share was higher in the special election than it was in the general, which torpedoes your argument, specifically in regards to what just happened in Georgia. Your response to that was to needlessly move the goalposts by changing to a trends argument rather than just acknowledging that your position hasn't held up across the board, as of now.
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:03 PM   #99
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Because when Obama took over the economy was still bad and he passed what was sold as a takeover as healthcare and wasn't popular. Trump hasn't done anything besides bomb Syria which will poll well. If Republicans are smart they will take ownership of the economy if it's still doing well next year. That alone will be able for them to retain some in '18. A very important difference than 2010.
Trump is way more unpopular now than Obama was at a similar point in his Presidency.

Trump has done way more than bomb Syria -- have you been paying attention?
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:04 PM   #100
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
My response was to note that the Republican vote share was higher in the special election than it was in the general, which torpedoes your argument, specifically in regards to what just happened in Georgia. Your response to that was to needlessly move the goalposts by changing to a trends argument rather than just acknowledging that your position hasn't held up across the board, as of now.
Again, the trend extends beyond just the past few months. Georgia 6 is usually a +20 district for the GOP. Has been for a decade-plus.

It is a +2 district now, at best.

It'll fluctuate back, eventually, but for now it's evidence that the environment is favorable towards Democrats.
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:07 PM   #101
Just Passin' By Just Passin' By is offline
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Again, the trend extends beyond just the past few months. Georgia 6 is usually a +20 district for the GOP. Has been for a decade-plus.

It is a +2 district now, at best.

It'll fluctuate back, eventually, but for now it's evidence that the environment is favorable towards Democrats.
Again, that's a trend argument. Your initial argument was comparing the special elections with standard elections. In the Georgia special election, the Democrat candidate got a lower vote share than what Clinton got in the most recent standard election.

You keep needlessly defending your first argument, which was incorrect even according to the site you offered as proof in defense.
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:09 PM   #102
Scooter Libby Scooter Libby is offline
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Trump is way more unpopular now than Obama was at a similar point in his Presidency.

Trump has done way more than bomb Syria -- have you been paying attention?
What else has he passed? Besides nominating a well respected judge and the Democrats childishly tried to block it. You already tried to do a referendum on Trump last election and the people voted Republican overwhelmingly.

Keep ignoring jobs and the middle class you'll continue to lose parts of the rust belt, keep sticking it to coal you won't have a chance in KY & WV. Keep acting like the midwest is a bunch of gun loving religious hicks and then you'll continue to lose in Missouri and Iowa too.
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Old 04-20-2017, 03:09 PM   #103
Anyong Bluth Anyong Bluth is offline
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Of course special elections aren't going to be the paramount indicator of the midterms, but they certainly aren't extraneous data points.

To have swings of such a large proportion in Republican strongholds is a telling story of the potential for further in-roads & gains by Democrats.

Democrats would be foolish to get giddy over moral victories. It should encourage them to be more aggressive in devoting time and resources to support local candidates that they previously had written off and barely contested Republican controlled seats in the past.

The Kansas & Georgia seats were in districts where if you were going to assign a degree of strength out of 5, Republicans have enjoyed a +4 margin of support for electing their candidates. These latest results would put them in +1 category. The takeaway is looking at upcoming seats, and the ability to get people going door-to-door to work on the turnout in seats that are a tossup, or in Republican control with only +1, +2, or +3 if running a very strong candidate for that seat. These are the best areas of focus where the margins to overcome have a lower threshold.

Enough can't be said for just how absent and unorganized the DNC has been over the past 8 years under the idiot, DWS.
Democrats pretty much conceded state and local elections in many winnable seats due primarily for lack of leadership and support.
New leadership and focus on state and local races should have a net positive in comparison to virtually being an absentee organization nationally and by default letting seats go uncontested.

In addition, Democrats are completely out of the majority, and historically, voters are fickle in their allegiance to parties who are in control - regardless of whether it is Democratic or Republican control.

The electoral map is far more favorable to Republicans in 2018, but similarly advantageous to Democrats in 2020. Any modest to healthy gains in 2018, when Democrats have been plagued by low midterm turnout, will in effect be considered great when accounting for the map's reality. If they are able to pick off a sizeable chunk of the Republicans' majority in the house, and hold the Senate or pick up a seat or 2, that would be enormous.
Republicans would still hold the House, Senate, Executive, and SC, and once again be on the hook for the 2020 races, where it would be an extremely high probability that they could flip the House and Senate, and depending on the Presidential candidate, and current approval numbers of this administration, result in a Democratic administration.

Quite a reversal of fortune. Ironically, if Hillary had won, Republicans would have almost certainly continued to grow their lead in the House & Senate, and had a supermajority. Then, 2020 would have likely shaped up with a Republican win for President, and Congressional supermajority to enact legislation carte blanche to push everything they wanted without really any obstacles to clear in getting it through the House or Senate.

Dwindling affiliation by the 2 parties and the fact that Independents now make up the largest voting group in the country means that with so many people who are on the fence, political winds can result in even crazier and larger swing votes to shift our political representation.
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Old 04-20-2017, 04:05 PM   #104
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Again, the trend extends beyond just the past few months. Georgia 6 is usually a +20 district for the GOP. Has been for a decade-plus.

It is a +2 district now, at best.

It'll fluctuate back, eventually, but for now it's evidence that the environment is favorable towards Democrats.
You've got but a momentary snap-shot in time. The reason it usually has +20 is because it's a very conservative district. It's the district of Price.

Your guy had a lot of big outside money to help him.
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Old 04-20-2017, 04:14 PM   #105
Just Passin' By Just Passin' By is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth View Post
Of course special elections aren't going to be the paramount indicator of the midterms, but they certainly aren't extraneous data points.

To have swings of such a large proportion in Republican strongholds is a telling story of the potential for further in-roads & gains by Democrats.
There was no swing in Georgia, in regards to the Trump/Clinton election compared to the special election.

If you're looking at a longer term trend, that becomes a different story, but Silver's analysis of it is a joke.
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