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Old 04-02-2013, 06:59 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I guess at this point, it all comes down to Branden Albert.

Just some Chiefs-related rambling this morning. Take it or leave it.

If the team can't sign Branden Albert, or if they trade him, I have worlds of trouble figuring out how they draft anybody but Joeckel/Fisher at 1.1, even if they find a way to trade down, which I now suspect they will.

I'm obviously just one of you guys, but I do follow this shit pretty much every day. I'd say if they ink Albert longterm, that's the only way you avoid going tackle.

Put it like this. Chances of going Joeckel/Fisher:
  • option A: they ink Albert long-term: 5%.
  • option B: if they keep Albert on the franchise tag: 75%.
  • option C: if they trade Albert away: 100%.
I just can't see any scenerio where we choose to let Albert go and they choose to go with Geno or either of the passrushers (Jordan or Ansah) that they obviously like a lot. I can see it happen with Albert on the tag, but even that's hard to see as they'd probably just love bookending Joeckel with Albert for a year before sliding Joeckel over to LT.

Here's the problem with that option, and why I think options A or C are the only viable solutions: if the team is incapable of landing a 2nd rounder for Albert in the 2013 draft, than the best they can hope for outside of doing this whole ordeal again in 2014 is a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2015. That's the deal: a 2nd rounder in 2013, or a 3rd rounder in 2015. That's why the Chiefs are trying to get rid of Albert now.

The fact Albert isn't showing up for practice, the only player to do so, is pretty damning as well. That shows option C to be waaaaaaaaaaaaaay out in the lead. Option A is far behind, and I don't even think option B has left the gates -- I simply don't regard it as a possibility.

The silver lining of all that, however, is the cap space. Losing Albert, much as I would hate it, means that we can replace him with Joeckel/Fisher and still have $10million in cap space to play with either this year or roll it over to 2014 for god knows who. And the player replacing Albert, at least, will be younger and cheaper for at least five years. So there's that.

What are the odds that Albert comes down on his contract demands if the Chiefs can't find adequate trade compensation? Perhaps Albert can take that as a sign, and just take a more manageable deal instead of initiating a year-plus contract battle with the Chiefs, playing under a one-year deal.

As for the non-tackle options with our 1st round pick, which I simply don't regard as a large possibility at this point: if the Chiefs stay at #1 overall, I don't think you can take either passrusher and feel good about yourself. I think both passrushers make a ton of sense at #4 (Eagles) or #5 (Browns), but again this assumes that the Chiefs have settled in with Albert for the long haul and aren't interested in Joeckel/Fisher. So I think the 1.1 becomes Geno Smith if, and only if, the Chiefs ink Albert long-term, or at least believe they will be able to do so. Any other variation: an Albert trade, or a trade down, means that Geno will not be the pick.

The Albert omens aren't good at this point. And based on some interesting observations from BossChief, I think the flurry of recent QB activity in the wake of KC hosting Geno this week means that it's come out that the Chiefs have secured a trade down partner as well. Which means I think the Chiefs are going to be trading down to #4 or #5. If that happens, if they plan on keeping Albert, I fully expect Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah as heir apparents to/insurance for Tamba Hali in 2014, as I expect there will be a Dumervil-esque restructuring ordeal. If Albert's gone, well hey, they may still get Joeckel at that spot, or they'll settle for Fisher.

My guess: the Chiefs will find a trade partner for Albert, and get a 2nd rounder back in this year's draft for him, while landing another 2nd rounder in trading down from 1.1 to 1.4 or 1.5 with a team (Eagles or Browns?) who wants Geno. Like I said earlier, the good news is that we'll find a cheap, capable replacement for Albert and still have two seconds to play with.

That means two quality players with star potential, or the underrated possibility at this point that the Chiefs package those 2nd rounders and trade back into the 1st, should somebody exciting like OLB Bjoern Werner, OLB Damontre Moore, WR Justin Hunter, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Tyler Eifert, or S Matt Elam falls a bit more than expected...

Like I said, just some ramblings this morning.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:28 PM   #61
FRCDFED FRCDFED is offline
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It wouldn't surprise me if some of this is posturing to get Albert to sign a more team friendly deal. I guess we'll see how much Albert really wants to remain a Chief.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:31 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by FRCDFED View Post
It wouldn't surprise me if some of this is posturing to get Albert to sign a more team friendly deal. I guess we'll see how much Albert really wants to remain a Chief.
Signing Albert long term would free up about 3 mil in cap space which that money will be used towards draft picks.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:34 PM   #63
DTLB58 DTLB58 is offline
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Originally Posted by suds79 View Post
At this point, I think this is the best we can hope for.

Trade Albert for a 2nd. Trade back from 1.1 for another 2nd. Take Fisher or Joeckel and see if they can do anything exciting with those two 2nds.

The only caveat I'd throw in that senario is that if you feel Jordan or Ziggy is the going to become an elite pass rusher, I'd be okay with going that route in round 1 and figuring out LT in another way. Say 2nd? I mean is there some law that says you have to draft your LT in the first only? Again that's only if you feel you have an elite pass rusher staring you in the face.

Pass rusher I think is almost as big as a need given that you can never have enough, we only have 2, and one will be 30 this next season.


@MoveTheSticks: 2nd round is going to be outstanding in this draft! Immediate starters at WR, CB, LB, DT and TE...
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:37 PM   #64
NJChiefsFan NJChiefsFan is offline
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This was part of the anger about trading for Alex. We have all been drooling about what we were going to have a chance to get at #34. If we collect picks, I wouldn't be looking to trade back into the first. I don't see many scenarios where the guy at #22 is better than the two guys we would get at #39 and #46 or something like that.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:40 PM   #65
Sorter Sorter is offline
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I don't know if pointing out how weak he was in the NFCCG is really splitting hairs. Or pointing out that his team was stacked as hell. Alex played better in the Saints game than I thought he could. I do know that most of his play outside of that game leads me to think he isn't taking this team anywhere special, but he is a lot better than Cassel IMO. Thing is that isn't the goal. We shall see.

As TBG pointed out earlier, Reid isn't going to coddle Alex. At the very least we should see Alex's feet held to the fire.
I hate this argument.

Cassel was historically bad. Drew Stanton would have been an upgrade.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:40 PM   #66
NJChiefsFan NJChiefsFan is offline
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Originally Posted by Ponderception View Post
I hate this argument.

Cassel was historically bad. Drew Stanton would have been an upgrade.
Hence the next sentence.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:43 PM   #67
SNR SNR is offline
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That is your opinion but not fact. Others will believe that Joeckel will do more than good his rookie year. He is a very polished prospect.
As soon as Direckshun's bitch ass buckles down and comes up with some suitable terms for my bet with him, we'll have to see.

I happen to believe he's not nearly as polished as people think. He's just more of the same in a draft that has no elite prospects at any position.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:50 PM   #68
BigMeatballDave BigMeatballDave is offline
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Originally Posted by Ponderception View Post
I hate this argument.

Cassel was historically bad. Drew Stanton would have been an upgrade.
Well, Smith is better.

Of course, that doesn't mean SB appearances.

It should mean they will be a lot more competitive.
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Old 04-02-2013, 02:12 PM   #69
Chief Faithful Chief Faithful is offline
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I happen to believe he's not nearly as polished as people think. He's just more of the same in a draft that has no elite prospects at any position.
Your not alone. I'm don't see Joeckel in the same class with other tackles taken first pick in the draft (Jake Long, Orlando Pace, Ron Yary). He may be the right pick for 1.1, but I don't believe he is as ready as the pundits are claiming. The last time a quality OT prospect from Texas A&M did well in the NFL was Rex Tucker in 1999. Next best was Corey Clark in 2008. How much is Joeckel a product of Johnny Manziel?
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:58 PM   #70
FRCDFED FRCDFED is offline
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Your not alone. I'm don't see Joeckel in the same class with other tackles taken first pick in the draft (Jake Long, Orlando Pace, Ron Yary). He may be the right pick for 1.1, but I don't believe he is as ready as the pundits are claiming. The last time a quality OT prospect from Texas A&M did well in the NFL was Rex Tucker in 1999. Next best was Corey Clark in 2008. How much is Joeckel a product of Johnny Manziel?
Or visa versa
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