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Old 12-28-2012, 01:00 PM  
OnTheWarpath58 OnTheWarpath58 is offline
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An addition to the Pioli resume

I was bored, thought I'd run some numbers - hadn't done any Chiefs-related homework in a while.

Anywho, discussion in another thread got me to thinking about the "talent level" on this team. People seem to be getting back in the habit of blaming specifically the QB and coaching, while claiming that this roster, and those before it are loaded with talent.

For a team that supposedly has talent, all they've done is beat up on the weak sisters of the poor over the last 4 years of the Pioli Nightmare.

23 wins in 4 years.

Those 23 wins came against teams with a collective 152-214 record and a .415 winning percentage. You can thank Green Bay dropping a metric ****ton of passes back in December of 2011 - take them out of the equation, and you're looking at a .375 winning percentage.

1 win in 4 years against a 10-win or better team.

3 wins in 4 years against a 9-win or better team.

20 wins against 8-8 teams or worse - 11 of those wins against teams with 6 wins or less.

So the "Executive of the Decade" was responsible for 5.75 wins per year, and we should consider ourselves lucky we "earned" that many.

In this era of parity in the NFL, a team with this much "talent" would be winning more than 5.75 games per year. Even without a QB. Even without a QB and HC.

Folks say that Mark Sanchez is a POS, and that we have more talent than the Jets. The same Jets that have won 34 games in the last 4 years. 11 more than the Chiefs.

Buffalo has shit for talent, plays in a brutal division, and has 2 fewer wins over the same time period.

Cleveland is hot garbage, and they've won 4 fewer games over the past 4 years. 1 game a year difference.

Jacksonville has 1 fewer win.

Miami has 4 MORE wins.

Oakland has 2 MORE wins.


The overwhelming majority of this board would claim that we have more "talent" than every one of the above teams.

The overwhelming majority of this board would claim that our QB play has been at least as good as the above teams, and in most cases, better.

The overwhelming majority of this board would claim that our coaching has been at least as good as the above teams, and in most cases, better.


The overwhelming majority of this board would be dead wrong on one of those three assessments. One of these things is not like the other.

Folks, it's time to wake up and realize that QB and HC are just part of the problem.

I see a lot of bad teams with bad QB's and bad HC's that have won as much or more than we have.

Sadly, the bottom line is that there isn't nearly as much "talent" on this roster that you think there is - and that we're a lot closer to the Cleveland's, Buffalo's and Jacksonville's of the NFL than you want to admit.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:34 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
You don't get to - or win - a Super Bowl with just a QB.

The problem is that this fanbase automatically undervalues players on other teams, while overvaluing our players.

You need a complete team - including a QB.

And even then, sometimes it's not enough.

Could Geno Smith come in next year and lead us to 8 or 9 wins?

Maybe.

But unless the new GM starts hitting on some draft picks and making some smart FA signings, 8-9 wins and the occasional one-and-done in the playoffs is the ceiling.
Well unfortunately until Peyton Manning retires we're going to be settling for fighting for the 5th and 6th seed every year so I doubt we have immediate playoff success REGARDLESS...

and this is the point I've been saying for YEARS in regard to the great Brady/Manning debate. YEARS. I'm glad to see people are starting to understand.

AND, again, we get grossly outcoached every game. Defense alone we have Johnson, Hali, Houston, Flowers and Berry with guys like Poe who have potential and guys like Arenas who are serviceable. You can't have an all-star at every position you need coaching to come up with schemes to put the 'average to system' players in position to succeed.

We do not have that luxury.

Denver has a QB that consistently sustains LONG drives and puts them in the lead so they can play to their defensive strengths (get after the passer)...we don't. Peyton Manning makes that solid defense with great playmakers ELITE and PETRIFYING.

We have Houston and Hali. If Peyton Manning were our QB he'd enable them to be ELITE and PETRIFYING.

I don't think you understand HOW MUCH Peyton Manning does for that team...offense and...and...ESPECIALLY defense.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:35 PM   #92
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not to mention the fact Denver can take risks, or call aggressive defensive plays because you know what? What's the worst thing that happens? They give up a long TD and Peyton Manning gets the ball? Oh no!

We get down by 10+? Yeah. Ha ha. We're done.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:37 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by FAX View Post
An excellent, albeit devastatingly depressing analysis, Mr. OnTheWarpath58.

By all rights, however, I think we shouldn't count Dr. Evil's first year ... or, at least, we should weight it less heavily. That was, by any reasonable standard, a rebuild year for sure. The new regime inherited a sloppy, lazy, completely unmotivated gaggle of out-of-shape quitters. Although I despise Dr. Evil as much or more than anyone else on planet Earth, I'd give that to any new GM/HC group.

What is unforgivable, though, was mentioned by Mr. Rausch earlier today. It's entirely unacceptable that you are worse in year 4 of your "rebuild" than you were in year 1 ... and we are.

It goes without saying that the root problem is lack of talent. But I'd add that it's lack of talent at some of the most crucial positions. And, of course, if you don't have quality depth in the NFL, you don't have squat because there are always injuries.

Frankly, I've given up thinking about this too hard because, when I do, the reality hits me once more just how screwed we are. The hopelessness that permeates this organization is palpable and, given our current situation and the total failure to improve or even stabilize the situation, we have only Pioli to thank. So, here's to you, Dr. Evil. May you wallow in opossum urine all your days.

FAX
I adamantly disagree with any notion of a "rebuild" in the sense that a team cannot be reasonably successful while going through it. Thus, discounting or prorating our evaluation of Pioli in '09 in nonsensical in my view.

Our talent at key positions was pretty damn good. Still is, though it's largely the same guys. If Pioli were even reasonably good at his job, we could have been a consistent playoff team from '09 forward.

I don't care whom Clark hires as the next GM; the sonofabitch doesn't get an "evaluation year." Furthermore, "rebuilding" is rhetorical bullshit sold on fans to get them to continue to support financially a shit team. It's fluff and does nothing but absolve blame and buy time.

"Evaluation years," "Right 53s," "Processes," and "Rebuilding years" can be shoved right up the next GM's ass if he even dares utter these trite cliches.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:38 PM   #94
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we were a blocked FG away from making the playoffs in a shit division with Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko and Kyle Orton at QB with Jackie Battle as our best RB and Sabby Piscatelli starting at safety.

Dreadful 2012. No doubt.

Fortunately, we have easy fixes.

We have to hit one two things to be competitive in 2013. Geno Smith + a competent coaching staff. Those two things alone can get us to 8 wins.

Then we need to hit on some free agents, maybe hit on ONE more draft pick...and maybe see ONE guy like Poe develop into a good starter.

We have FAR less rebuilding to do than the Colts did this year (even though I think that is the luckiest team we've seen in a long time).
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:40 PM   #95
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I'm also a firm believer that Indianapolis is a pretty lucky team this year.

Luck has been amazing.

I don't see their overall group as a talented core of players.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:41 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
I adamantly disagree with any notion of a "rebuild" in the sense that a team cannot be reasonably successful while going through it. Thus, discounting or prorating our evaluation of Pioli in '09 in nonsensical in my view.

Our talent at key positions was pretty damn good. Still is, though it's largely the same guys. If Pioli were even reasonably good at his job, we could have been a consistent playoff team from '09 forward.

I don't care whom Clark hires as the next GM; the sonofabitch doesn't get an "evaluation year." Furthermore, "rebuilding" is rhetorical bullshit sold on fans to get them to continue to support financially a shit team. It's fluff and does nothing but absolve blame and buy time.

"Evaluation years," "Right 53s," "Processes," and "Rebuilding years" can be shoved right up the next GM's ass if he even dares utter these trite cliches.


Okay.

What do you call it when you install entirely new defensive and offensive playbooks and schemes, reassign positional responsibilities to your "best" players, and introduce an entirely new leadership group into the mix?

I know ... let's call it "Gloobering"! That should work just fine.

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Old 12-28-2012, 03:42 PM   #97
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Luck has something like 7 game winning drives this year...

So yeah, that's amazing. Shows what kind of gamer he is.

BUT FLIP SIDE IT...they could very easily be 3-12. That team, IMO, takes a big step backwards next year...I think Luck puts it all together in year 3 though.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:45 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by FAX View Post


Okay.

What do you call it when you install entirely new defensive and offensive playbooks and schemes, reassign positional responsibilities to your "best" players, and introduce an entirely new leadership group into the mix?

I know ... let's call it "Gloobering"! That should work just fine.

FAX
Outside of QB, are the Chiefs more talented than the Colts? How are the Redskins possibly surviving during this difficult "rebuilding" process? Hell, what about the Seahawks, the least talked about good team in the NFL? That "rebuild" is a bitch.

Why in the world should the highest paid GM in the game get a mulligan, if one entire season can even be counted so lightly?
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:51 PM   #99
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The problem is that this fanbase automatically undervalues players on other teams, while overvaluing our players.
The "fan base" might but not on here so much. On here any player for any other team is better than whomever the Chiefs have is the normal schtick around here.

Someone who is good with that PFF stuff could put all of our players or position groups against other teams and probably get a more accurate measure of where our "team" stands as far as talent goes.
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:03 PM   #100
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I'm also a firm believer that Indianapolis is a pretty lucky team this year.

Luck has been amazing.

I don't see their overall group as a talented core of players.
Here's an obversation regarding the Colts - and this came from Gary Kubiak after the Texans played them - He said that they are deep in that when you take away the obvious stars - that most all the talent is the same level. They play a lot of thier roster each game (He said more than any team in the league) and the dropoff in talent when they sub is minimal. He said that it's a very good way to go through a rebuild in that teams can remain competitive with a GOOD QB at the helm. Interesting...
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:10 PM   #101
OnTheWarpath58 OnTheWarpath58 is offline
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we were a blocked FG away from making the playoffs in a shit division with Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko and Kyle Orton at QB with Jackie Battle as our best RB and Sabby Piscatelli starting at safety.

Dreadful 2012. No doubt.

Fortunately, we have easy fixes.

We have to hit one two things to be competitive in 2013. Geno Smith + a competent coaching staff. Those two things alone can get us to 8 wins.

Then we need to hit on some free agents, maybe hit on ONE more draft pick...and maybe see ONE guy like Poe develop into a good starter.

We have FAR less rebuilding to do than the Colts did this year (even though I think that is the luckiest team we've seen in a long time).
We have easy fixes, yet didn't fix anything in FOUR YEARS.
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:11 PM   #102
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We have easy fixes, yet didn't fix anything in FOUR YEARS.
That is on the Fat **** in the GM office.
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:12 PM   #103
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I disagree that we didn't fix anything.

The offensive line has been massively upgraded.

Winston, Asamoah and Hudson are all good players.
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:14 PM   #104
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That is on the Fat **** in the GM office.
And it will be on the next guy as well.

As has been pointed out several times, the core of this team hasn't changed in four years - it's just gotten older.

We have all these easy fixes, yet the Executive of the Decade wasn't able to fix anything in four years.

A QB is part of the problem, but far from the entire problem.
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:17 PM   #105
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