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U.S. Deficit Shrinking At Fastest Pace Since WWII
http://news.investors.com/blogs-capi...rld-war-ii.htm
![]() Believe it or not, the federal deficit has fallen faster over the past three years than it has in any such stretch since demobilization from World War II. In fact, outside of that post-WWII era, the only time the deficit has fallen faster was when the economy relapsed in 1937, turning the Great Depression into a decade-long affair. If U.S. history offers any guide, we are already testing the speed limits of a fiscal consolidation that doesn't risk backfiring. That's why the best way to address the fiscal cliff likely is to postpone it. While long-term deficit reduction is important and deficits remain very large by historical standards, the reality is that the government already has its foot on the brakes. In this sense, the "fiscal cliff" metaphor is especially poor. The government doesn't need to apply the brakes with more force to avoid disaster. Rather the "cliff" is an artificial one that has sprung up because the two parties are able to agree on so little. Hopefully, they will agree, as they did at the end of 2010, to embrace their disagreement for a bit longer. That seems a reasonably likely outcome of negotiations because the most likely alternative to a punt is a compromise (expiration of the Bush tax cuts for the top and the payroll tax cut, along with modest spending cuts) that could still push the economy into recession. Rather than applying additional fiscal restraint now, the government needs to make sure it sets the course for steady restraint once the economy emerges further from the deep employment hole that remains. In fact, a number of so-called deficit hawks are calling for short-term tax cuts to spur growth, rather than immediate austerity. From fiscal 2009 to fiscal 2012, the deficit shrank 3.1 percentage points, from 10.1% to 7.0% of GDP. That's just a bit faster than the 3.0 percentage point deficit improvement from 1995 to '98, but at that point, the economy had everything going for it. Other occasions when the federal deficit contracted by much more than 1 percentage point a year have coincided with recession. Some examples include 1937, 1960 and 1969. President Obama hasn't gotten much credit for reining in the deficit, probably because a big part of the deficit progress has come from the unwinding of extraordinary government supports that he helped put in place. Stimulus programs have come and mostly gone; the end of stimulus to states led them to enact Medicaid curbs; jobless benefits in recent months have fallen by 50% since early 2010 (due to both job gains and extended benefits being exhausted). TARP and the bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also make the deficit improvement look better, boosting the fiscal '09 deficit by about $200 billion more than in fiscal '12 (though the initial cost of TARP was overstated). Still, military spending is now on the decline due to fewer troops in Iraq and Afghanistan; Medicare costs rose 3% last year vs. the average 7% growth in recent years; and after the last year's Budget Control Act, excluding the automatic cuts set to take effect in January, nondefense discretionary spending is already on a path to shrink to 2.7% of GDP, well below the 3.9% average, notes the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. |
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#76 |
Make America Great Again
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IMF, but yeah.
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#77 |
Independent Moderate
Join Date: Mar 2010
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I hate it when people absolutely refuse to admit they are ever wrong about anything, no matter how much evidence is placed in front of them.
That's not the kind of person I want to be, so I am going to take my lumps and concede that the deficit inherited by Obama was a lot bigger than I said it was. I began to doubt my position when Dirk Digler pointed out that the fiscal year runs from October 1st to September 30th. When Direckshun posted 7 different sources supporting his position, I was forced to question it even more. Don't get me wrong: I still think Obama is doing a horrible job and insists upon focusing on the wrong things, I still believe Romney would have been a much better choice to be President, and I think we're all going to pay the price for Obama's anti-business policies. But on the specific point regarding the size of the deficit Obama inherited from Bush, it appears that I was |
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#78 | |
One Groovy Cat
Join Date: Aug 2001
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#79 | |
Independent Moderate
Join Date: Mar 2010
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I hate the fact that Obama is hell-bent upon implementing Cap & Trade, and has promised to do it by executive order even though it was rejected by Congress. I hate the fact that Obama concedes that his energy policies will cause energy prices to skyrocket (that's a direct quote from him), but he is determined to implement those policies anyway, because he knows what is best. He strikes me as an autocrat, not a collaborator. I fear that in his second term he will be much more of an autocrat. When he said "Elections have consequences", it struck me that he was saying "**** you, I'm President, and I'm going to do whatever the hell I want". In order for him to be doing a good job in my eyes, he would have to reverse his positions on the things listed above. He would have to say "Maybe we rushed thing a little with Obamacare. Maybe we should take a look at it and see if we can make it a little less expensive. Maybe we shouldn't rush to implement Cap & Trade, and maybe I should try to reach across the aisle and work with the Republicans instead of vilifying them and blaming them for everything". |
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#80 |
MVP
Join Date: Jan 2010
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Every other developed nation on earth has had universal healthcare since the early 90s - most of them since long before that. Many underdeveloped nations are starting to get it. How much longer is the US supposed to wait? 20 more years?
The republican plan on healthcare is to do nothing for as long as possible. Well to be fair they had a plan (mandates) that they were promoting right up until the moment Obama adopted it because he couldn't get the Blue Dog dems to go for single-payer or a public option. Republicans got everything they supposedly wanted, and have never stopped whining about it. Maybe if Republicans had actually worked with Obama on UHC, instead of sitting in the corner throwing a temper tantrum, we could have that much better bill that you want. Tort reform was on the table if the republicans would have ever actually come to the table. Also do you have a cite for Obama threatening to implement cap and trade by executive order? I could be wrong, but I put the odds of any kind of significant economy-damaging cap & trade policy being implemented at roughly 0%. It's just a political non-starter. Last edited by suzzer99; 11-23-2012 at 12:26 PM.. |
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#81 |
First Overall
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this thread was lacking the one pic until now
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The Greatest |
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#82 | |
One Groovy Cat
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I, like you, would like to see more collaboration and both parties need to lose the my way or nothing at all approach. |
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#83 | |
Starter
Join Date: Mar 2011
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But back on topic, Obama's budgets have increased our deficit by astronomically more; anyone even trying to to say he's improved it needs serious mental help. He's the worst POTUS in the history of the US, hands down, and its not even a debate. The fact he was re-elected is the most troubling sign of the state of the country as a whole. |
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#84 | |
One Groovy Cat
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#85 |
The 23rd Pillar
Join Date: Sep 2002
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If you're impressed by that, you should see the winning majorities Saddam Hussein commanded.
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![]() “The American people are tired of liars and people who pretend to be something they’re not.” - Hillary Clinton |
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#86 | |
Time For Your Wake Up Call !!!
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#87 | |
America is great assholes~
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The Trump campaign and Black Lives Matter movement are perfect for each other. Both sides filled with easily led and angry nitwits convinced they are victims~ |
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#88 | |
Make America Great Again
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That's fundamentally wrong. Fundamentally wrong. |
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#89 |
Supporter
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#90 | |
Supporter
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It gets pretty hard to wade through the flock of total idiots in this place sometimes.
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