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Old 11-22-2012, 11:03 AM  
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Matt Barkley doesn't resemble elite quarterback prospect in 2012

Fatality.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100...rback-prospect

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When Matt Barkley returned to USC for his senior year, it was likely with visions of bagging a national championship and the Heisman Trophy before entering the NFL as the No. 1 pick in next April's draft. However, Barkley's subpar performance in this disappointing season that has ensued is threatening to send him plummeting down draft boards across the league.

The Trojans are sitting at 7-4 with just one game remaining in the regular season, and USC is out of contention in the Pac-12 race. Barkley doesn't have a chance of winning college's top individual prize, either, with playmakers like Kansas State QB Collin Klein, Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel and Notre Dame LB Manti Te'o emerging as the main contenders.

Now, it is important to note that Barkley was not a lock to be a top-10 pick a season ago. In fact, scouts told me last spring that Barkley wasn't a cinch to be the third quarterback in the 2012 draft class, despite having a more impressive collegiate résumé than Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill (who went to the Miami Dolphins with the eighth overall pick) and Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden (drafted by the Cleveland Browns at 22nd overall). Evaluators cited Barkley's lack of elite physical tools (height, arm talent and athleticism) as major concerns. Although Barkley was listed at 6-foot-2, 230 pounds, scouts questioned whether he was tall enough to play the position at the next level, and worried that his lack of athleticism would make him a sitting duck in the pocket.

Scouts also worried about Barkley's lack of elite arm strength. Although he displayed the capacity to make short and intermediate throws with zip and velocity, he didn't blow evaluators away with his deep-ball range, accuracy or touch. Barkley routinely underthrew his receivers on vertical throws, relying on Marqise Lee and Robert Woods to make plays on the ball. Both playmakers are regarded as future elite NFL prospects; some wonder if Barkley's production is a byproduct of their remarkable skills.

With so many questions surrounding him, Barkley decided another year at the collegiate level would help him refine his game and make him a polished quarterback worthy of being selected at the top of the draft.

I've watched Barkley perform throughout his senior season. Here is my assessment of his game and whether he has a legitimate shot at hearing his name called first on draft day:

Arm talent

Barkley is a classic drop-back passer with sound throwing mechanics and a smooth delivery. He shows a compact windup and an over-the-top throwing motion with a quick release. Barkley displays good (but not great) arm strength on intermediate and deep throws. Although his balls tend to flutter on out-breaking routes that are longer than 15 yards, he shows adequate zip and velocity on his throws. Barkley can certainly fit balls into tight windows on intermediate throws inside the numbers, but he lacks the overpowering arm strength to complete the deep comeback from the opposite hash on a rope against tight coverage. The exceptional speed and quickness of NFL defensive backs will result in break-ups or interceptions, unless Barkley shows extraordinary timing and anticipation, releasing the ball well before the receiver comes out of his break.

On deep throws, Barkley shows a throwing range of about 50 to 55 yards. He has routinely connected with Lee and Nelson Agholor on vertical routes down the field. While most of those completions have resulted from his exceptional timing and anticipation, Barkley has shown the arm strength to throw the ball over the top of the defense when defenders squat on routes. This was particularly evident against Oregon on Nov. 3, when he connected on 75- and 76-yard touchdowns on deep post routes to Lee and Agholor, respectively. In my mind, these throws certainly squelched some of the concern about his deep-ball ability. However, the fallout from "Inflate Gate" could alter that opinion. (A USC ball boy was reprimanded following that game for deflating footballs, which he later admitted to doing; the use of underinflated balls makes it easier for quarterbacks to throw the ball down the field with greater zip and velocity.)

With the arm talent to make most of the throws at the next level, Barkley shouldn't have a problem succeeding as a starting quarterback, if he plays to his strengths.

Mobility

Barkley is not the kind of explosive athlete who can beat defenders with his legs on the perimeter. However, he flashes enough mobility and movement skills to be effective within the pocket. Barkley will routinely climb the pocket to avoid penetrating rushers, and his efficient footwork allows him to make accurate throws under duress. When the pocket completely crumbles, Barkley will attempt to escape, but he lacks the speed and quickness to run away from defenders on the perimeter.

As a passer on the move, Barkley is nimble enough to make accurate throws on bootlegs and rollouts. He shows the ability to deliver on the run without losing balance, which would allow him to make the most of the movement-based throws in West Coast offensive systems. Given the fact that Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub and Oakland Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer have succeeded in passing games that feature extensive movement in the backfield, Barkley's athleticism shouldn't impact his ability to start in most systems.

Game management

Barkley will enter the NFL with 47 games of starting experience at the major college level. The wealth of knowledge accumulated in those contests will ease Barkley's transition to the pro game, and allow him to quickly adjust to the speed and complexity of NFL defenses. Looking at Barkley's career arc, I've been impressed with the way that he manages the game at the line of scrimmage. He has been exposed to hot reads and sight adjustments, and has also utilized audibles to counter potential defensive looks.

In addition, Barkley has called plays from the line of scrimmage in no-huddle and two-minute situations, showcasing his mastery of the offense and knowledge of coverage. The utilization of the hurry-up approach also reflects his keen understanding of game situations and circumstances.

From a decision-making standpoint, Barkley has been mildly disappointing. He has made several errors in big games, leading to a high number of turnovers. While his touchdown-to-interception ratio is a respectable 36:15, the fact that he has thrown two or more picks in six games is disturbing. A quarterback with Barkley's experience should understand the importance of ball security, and he should avoid making risky throws. More importantly, Barkley should understand that tight coverage up the field means a check-down or safety valve is available underneath. Elite NFL quarterbacks operate that way; he has enough experience to know this strategy produces winning results. With nine interceptions in the Trojans' last four games, Barkley hasn't performed as expected; that will certainly affect his grade on draft boards across the league.

Clutch factor

Quarterbacks are ultimately judged on their ability to win big games. Barkley was outstanding in the Trojans' biggest games in 2011, but he has underwhelmed in such showdowns this season. In the Trojans' four losses, Barkley completed just 58.2 percent of his passes, recording 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. More importantly, he has made poor decisions in the opening moments of games, putting his team in an early hole. The most disappointing aspect of his performance is his inability to recognize pressure and coverage prior to the snap. For a senior with four years of starting experience, Barkley should display more poise under pressure and perform better in big games. Scouts will go back to the 2011 game tape to see if Barkley's problems are a trend, but his lackluster play in meaningful contests this season will give evaluators some pause when considering his prospects as a franchise quarterback.

Conclusion

Barkley was considered a strong possibility as a top-15 pick a year ago, but elected to return to school to hone his game for the pros. He has shown progress in some areas, but he is not the elite quarterback prospect some thought he'd be prior to the season. He is not in the same class as current young standouts Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) and Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins), but he has enough polish and potential to still merit consideration as a pick in the latter half of the first round. Given the number of teams that are desperate for a quarterback, though, I expect Barkley will come off the board within the first 20 selections of the 2013 NFL Draft.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:22 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
He's the kind of QB that reminds me of my 2nd year of college.

I'd get a girl alone in a room and then........wait......whut?......."It's called a padded bra..."
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:34 PM   #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Don't be an idiot. I am saying his upside is worth the risk. But only cp is trying to make the case that he is a perfectly unflawed qb. In most qb classes, he is tier 2.

If he is flawless as you try to paint him to be, there is no reason anybody should be debating him as the #1 pick in a lackluster qb class. Or why many nfl analysts are hesitant to put him there.

This place overreacts. I like him. But to pretend he isn't riskier than many #1 qbs is laughable.
Dont dodge the question I posed.

You said he has "major bust potential" and I simply asked what specifically gave you this thought.

Is he dumb?
Bad arm?
Poor accuracy?
Cant read defenses?
Doesnt understand coverages?
Immobile?
Bad leader?
Injury prone?
Is he an asshole off the field?

For you to make a bullshit claim like "he has major bust potential", surely you had something to base that claim off of...

Im just asking what you see that I am missing...
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:38 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
By the way... The last time you called me out for saying dumb shit was because I didn't hop on the bandwagon that we should hire a 60 year old offensive coordinator who just a year ago was pretty widely hated by educated steelers fans.
Even if that was totally accurate, whats your point?

Arians has a near perfect record with developing first round quarterbacks and has a backround in the Steelers system and is a OC under a guy that has ties to Baltimore.

The guy would be able to get a DC from either of those systems and develop our quarterback.

Not sure whats not to like...
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:56 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
Dont dodge the question I posed.

You said he has "major bust potential" and I simply asked what specifically gave you this thought.

Is he dumb?
Bad arm?
Poor accuracy?
Cant read defenses?
Doesnt understand coverages?
Immobile?
Bad leader?
Injury prone?
Is he an asshole off the field?

For you to make a bullshit claim like "he has major bust potential", surely you had something to base that claim off of...

Im just asking what you see that I am missing...
I've said this before. He is not rgIII, who ran a college offense, but we knew could win with his legs even if he wasn't a master at a pro offense (even in terms of being a pure pocket passer, he doesn't walk in with nearly the impressive pedigree as rgIII). He isn't Andrew luck, who we knew would MASTER a pocket based pro offense.

He is going to have to win games with his head. He is mobile enough, but not enough to mask inability to win in the pocket. People point to a "good enough" job in an average pro offense a few years ago. Today, he runs a very college oriented system where he isn't asked to go through progressions. He hasn't played against super complicated defenses to give us a feel for how he will react to out thinking a brilliant defense. We have to take leaps of faith that his football iq, coachability, and work ethic will help him do that.

Again. I would take him in a heartbeat. But fans of bad teams are the only ones who pretend he comes without risk. It's another case of cp exaggerating about a guy they like. Outside of cp, he is universally viewed as a borderline #1 pick in a lackluster qb class. If he is as clear cut as you say, given his skill set, he would be a consensus #1. The only reason hes becoming more of a consensus pick is because barkleys stock is nose diving.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:58 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
You'd think as chief fans we'd deserve to a guy like Luck or RGIII available when we pick.
Yeah, we miss out on a ll the sure things and this year when we have the opportunity the pickings are slim. We better not draft Todd Blackledge Jr.
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:01 PM   #81
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bowl games and the combine wil determine who we are picking

I think geno will end up being the obvious number 1..I don't remember people being all upon rg3s dick until after the bowl game and the combine
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:06 PM   #82
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Even if that was totally accurate, whats your point?

Arians has a near perfect record with developing first round quarterbacks and has a backround in the Steelers system and is a OC under a guy that has ties to Baltimore.

The guy would be able to get a DC from either of those systems and develop our quarterback.

Not sure whats not to like...
My thread makes it clear. He may be a good positions coach, but no person should want a coach that coddled big Ben and his behavior. The Rooneys, the fans, and Tomlin wanted him fired for years. The only reason he kept his job is because his best friend, Ben, vouched for him. Even his teammates spoke out about how he favored ben.

He is the most overrated coordinator in the nfl. Apart from coddling Ben, he led one of the worst red zone offenses. Got his qbs clobbered. And never adjusted to situations like maybe deciding to run the ball when your qb plays on a broken ankle. Arians is a good positions coach whose genius is largely driven by coaching two unbelievably gifted qbs, and he is a players coach which I absolutely do not want.

There is a lot not to like. Again, post what you just wrote of a steelers board. You will get drilled worse than knowmo.
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:08 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by dj56dt58 View Post
bowl games and the combine wil determine who we are picking

I think geno will end up being the obvious number 1..I don't remember people being all upon rg3s dick until after the bowl game and the combine
Geno isn't the prospect rgIII was. Again, I like geno. But rgIII was a sure thing. Everybody knew it and few disagreed.
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:12 PM   #84
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The difference between RG3 and Geno is 4.3 speed vs 4.6 speed and the systems they ran in college. As passers, they are extremely comparable.

So, what I have learned today form ChiefsZilla is that Geno Smith has "major bust potential" because he would have a hard time mastering a pro style offense and because he isnt RG3.

Which he isnt, he is GS3.
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:13 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Geno isn't the prospect rgIII was. Again, I like geno. But rgIII was a sure thing. Everybody knew it and few disagreed.
months before the draft a lot of posts called the gap between Luck & RG3 a large one. There were folks calling RG3 sure bust who couldn't run an NFL offense and would be the next Vick but worse.


Heh
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:14 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by BossChief View Post

he is GS3.
Well...THAT'S the cheesiest thing I've read today.
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:18 PM   #87
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Actually, it is the lacking foot speed of this year's QB draft that makes these players less ideal as top picks. They can all throw a decent pass, some are smarter yadayada, but the need for foot speed has never been greater at the QB position.

Both Luck & RG3 use mobility in their game at this level.
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:18 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
The difference between RG3 and Geno is 4.3 speed vs 4.6 speed and the systems they ran in college. As passers, they are extremely comparable.

So, what I have learned today form ChiefsZilla is that Geno Smith has "major bust potential" because he would have a hard time mastering a pro style offense and because he isnt RG3.

Which he isnt, he is GS3.
RgIII was a sure thing because his floor was that he would be an out of this world running qb. His upside was to be an out of the world athlete who was also an excellent pocket passer. Geno is going to be a pocket passer who can use his legs if he has to. That is a tremendous difference.

Geno HAS to be not just a good, but a masterful pocket passer. I never said he can't do that. Don't put words in my mouth. I've praised his football iq and work ethic. I've said it is a risk. And when I say bust potential, I am basing that on the idea that anything short of a franchise qb is a bust. Solid starter to me, is a bust.
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:19 PM   #89
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wow what a pass by RG3. A lil slide and boom!
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:20 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Geno isn't the prospect rgIII was. Again, I like geno. But rgIII was a sure thing. Everybody knew it and few disagreed.
How many "sure things" at QB have been drafted in the last 15 years?
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