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Old 11-10-2012, 11:08 AM  
alnorth alnorth is offline
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1980, revisited

Just wanted to illustrate the challenging environment the overwhelmingly-white GOP now finds themselves in.

Non-hispanic white vote:

1980 - 89%
1984 - 87%
1988 - 85%
1992 - 87%
1996 - 83%
2000 - 81%
2004 - 77%
2008 - 74%
2012 - 72%

In 1980, Reagan won by 9.7%. I did a little math, if that election had today's demographics by race (72% white, 13% black, 10% hispanic, 2% asian) and by gender (47% men, 53% women instead of 50/50), based on how they voted for reagan and carter back then in the 1980 exit polls, it looks like Reagan would have won the popular vote by only 8-tenths of a percent. (roughly 45.3% to 44.5%, in 1980 3rd party candidates took over 8%)

I was going to do something fancier with a new re-colored map and electoral college vote total, but the exit pollsters back then didnt do by-state exit polling, just national, so the best I can do is national popular vote.

If those minority racial groups voted the way they did this year, Reagan probably would have lost. Carter won fewer hispanics than Obama did, and Reagan won about 11% of black voters back then.
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:11 PM   #46
carlos3652 carlos3652 is offline
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It would be a significant event if the evangelicals were to realize the truth of the fact that they were not going to be able to enforce their moral code through political means, and rationally abandon the cause.

If you remove the anchor of conservative social issues from the GOP, it would turn the entire political landscape of the US upside down and shake it. The GOP would at once be freed from defending those increasingly unwinnable positions and be at risk for losing a large share of their reliable base. A similar effect would occur with the dems since they would lose a lot of their boogie men.
Agree completely. Religion has no place in the Gov. Just core values and principles.

Im a christian and feel this way.
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:18 PM   #47
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Huh? They're white people! They go overboard to differentiate themselves from other whites. They're no different. They destroyed the Inca and Mayan civilizations through intimidation, illness and Catholicism. Now they want some special designation that's tangential from reality? Bullshit!
That is ridiculous. Sure Europeans bred with them, however your statement assumes that the Europeans bred their lineage right out of all of them and that all had relations with Europeans.
I find that very difficult to buy.
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:21 PM   #48
carlos3652 carlos3652 is offline
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That is ridiculous. Sure Europeans bred with them, however your statement assumes that the Europeans bred their lineage right out of all of them and that all had relations with Europeans.
I find that very difficult to buy.
I was born in south america, with grandparents from Spain and Italy...

my race is white. but i am a hispanic
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:24 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
I was born in south america, with grandparents from Spain and Italy...

my race is white. but i am a hispanic
waiting for it....

what's your point?
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:26 PM   #50
carlos3652 carlos3652 is offline
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waiting for it....

what's your point?
sorry quote the wrong poster, crap... just making a point that hispanics are not a race... my bad jdiddy...
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:34 PM   #51
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all this talk about Latino voters in nonsense.

The latino vote is insignificant in regards to the electoral race between Romney and Obama. Of the Battleground states only Florida, Colorado, and Nevada have significant latino turnout. In every other battleground the latino vote was less than 5%.

If you are the type that believes that the GOP has to deal with the Latino vote, then you also must believe that Obama has a BIG problem with people 65 years and older. Obama got crushed in that demographic. Hell he even lost seniors to Romney in California.
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:37 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
sorry quote the wrong poster, crap... just making a point that hispanics are not a race... my bad jdiddy...

No big deal
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:55 PM   #53
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
all this talk about Latino voters in nonsense.

The latino vote is insignificant in regards to the electoral race between Romney and Obama. Of the Battleground states only Florida, Colorado, and Nevada have significant latino turnout. In every other battleground the latino vote was less than 5%.

If you are the type that believes that the GOP has to deal with the Latino vote, then you also must believe that Obama has a BIG problem with people 65 years and older. Obama got crushed in that demographic. Hell he even lost seniors to Romney in California.
Fine, throw out the latinos if you want.

Romney was freaking destroyed by the millennial generation. The young voters of today arent the slackers of Gen X, the millennials out-voted those seniors you are talking about, and they aren't even all eligible to vote yet. The millennials are bigger than the baby boomers, and if they are going to be reliable, progressive voters, then things look really grim in 2016 and 2020.
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:57 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Fine, throw out the latinos if you want.

Romney was freaking destroyed by the millennial generation. The young voters of today arent the slackers of Gen X, the millennials out-voted those seniors you are talking about, and they aren't even all eligible to vote yet. The millennials are bigger than the baby boomers, and if they are going to be reliable, progressive voters, then things look really grim in 2016 and 2020.
Many of those millennial are leaning libertarian—not toward the progressive left. Ron Paul had the youth vote too.
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Old 11-10-2012, 09:53 PM   #55
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Just wait when all these young people who voted for Obama realize that they HAVE to buy health insurance or pay the IRS in a few years. They'll probably become Republicans or Libertarians ( the one's that aren't already).
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Old 11-10-2012, 10:01 PM   #56
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
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Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
Hispanics are normally pro life, conservative economically and 80% + catholic.

They vote democratic because they are moderates when it comes to social issues. The republicans have ignored them and are leaning way to far right. Plus a lot of them are mexicans trying to get their families here legally and immigration reform and making it harder for them really doesnt help...
I wouldn't say ignore. Being hostile and offensive isn't really ignoring.
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