All the Polls Are Right, All the Polls Are Wrong

[RINGLEADER]

At this point it will require some new development to change where we are. As I've been saying it all comes down to turnout.

If turnout looks like 2004 or 2010 then Romney wins (and could win big) using the existing polls that are weighted in favor of the Dems.

If turnout looks like 2006 or 2008 then Obama wins (and could win big) using the existing polls that are weighted in favor of the Dems.

Basically, most of the media polls are presuming greater Dem turn-out even though many simultaneously show greater GOP enthusiasm.

Until Tuesday we'll hear a lot about polls and early voting and swing states. But it all comes down who gets their base out.

Two men will enter...one man will leave...

[Direckshun]

Neither candidate is going to win big.

[Donger]

From what I gather, there are two things that are important at this point:

1) Romney is greatly favored among independents, just as Obama had them in 2008.

2) Democrat voter turn-out will not be close to where it was in 2008.

If those two things are accurate, I think things bode rather well for Romney.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

At this point it will require some new development to change where we are. As I've been saying it all comes down to turnout.

And who those people vote for. I don't think we've ever seen an election like this.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by Donger

From what I gather, there are two things that are important at this point:

1) Romney is greatly favored among independents, just as Obama had them in 2008.

2) Democrat voter turn-out will not be close to where it was in 2008.

If those two things are accurate, I think things bode rather well for Romney.

This is worse than the NFL pre-game "Must dos" for each team.

Whichever team can control the line of scrimmage and put more points on the board is going to stand the best chance of winning this game!

[Donger]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

This is worse than the NFL pre-game "Must dos" for each team.

Whichever team can control the line of scrimmage and put more points on the board is going to stand the best chance of winning this game!

I'm not sure I understand you. Are taking issue with either/both statements? And/or if they are accurate, that it bodes well for Romney?

[WV]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm not sure I understand you. Are taking issue with either/both statements? And/or if they are accurate, that it bodes well for Romney?

You didn't say all hail Obama, so you're wrong. Pretty simple actually.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

And who those people vote for. I don't think we've ever seen an election like this.

I tend to agree. I wonder what that means for eggheads who have fancy math models that incorporate, among other things, historical polling trends.

[alnorth]

Obama needs many thihngs, the female vote, the cell phone vote, etc, but he also needs young voters.

Key tweet from a PPP national vote: Youth vote so important to Obama- trails with every other age group but 58/38 lead with them leaves him +1 overall:

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

And who those people vote for. I don't think we've ever seen an election like this.

Originally Posted by patteeu

I tend to agree. I wonder what that means for eggheads who have fancy math models that incorporate, among other things, historical polling trends.

OK, so you agree that this election will be determined by how many people turn out and who they vote for. Good to know I'm not alone in that radical view.