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Old 02-23-2014, 05:19 PM  
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Al Gore brings climate change message to Kansas City

Al Gore has been known for his climate change warnings since the 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.”

But the former vice president, speaking Saturday in Kansas City, cited many more recent examples how heavy use of fossil fuels is contributing to extreme weather events and trends, in his view.

Gore filled a Westin Crown Center ballroom with a 90-minute presentation, using photos and videos to illustrate a litany of floods, wildfires, torrential rains, droughts, dust storms, rising sea levels and increasing world temperatures.

To those attending the Folk Alliance International conference, he noted examples of flooding in locations both remote and closer to home, such as in Manitou Springs, Colo., where high water barreled down mountain highways last year, carrying cars along with it.

“They had never seen anything like this in Manitou Springs,” Gore said.

He cited the possibility of how flooding in Pakistan could destabilize that country, a nuclear power, and the possible effect that continuing drought in California might have on the world’s food supply.

“Think about that,” he said. “The Dust Bowl is coming back, quickly, unless we act.”

Gore presented animation from his 2006 film depicting water pushing into the streets of lower Manhattan — much mocked at the time, Gore said — followed by images of water filling New York City subway tunnels during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.

Gore conceded the possible fatigue some may have with his warnings, as well as the possible sense of powerlessness as to what any one individual can do to affect what appear to be vast, unchangeable trends.

“Do we really have to do this and — if the answer is yes — can we do it?” Gore said, repeating two questions he routinely hears.

“The answer to both of those questions — spoiler alert — is ‘yes.’ ”

Gore cited what he considered the increasing momentum with which renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar power have been embraced.

Just as one telephone company study 25 years ago underestimated the huge increase in the use of cellphones, estimates on the acceptance of wind and solar technology also have been conservative, Gore said.

Among the countries or states turning to renewable energy strategies, Gore mentioned the Vatican’s increasing use of solar technology. Vatican City, Gore said, wants to be the first CO2-neutral sovereign city-state in the world.

“They have two advantages,” Gore said. “It is very small, and they have God on their side.”

He urged his listeners to act on an individual basis.

“The one missing ingredient may well be you, no kidding,” he said.

And, given how he was addressing a room filled with folk music admirers, Gore framed his remarks with references to two singers: Bob Dylan and the late Pete Seeger. Reciting a phrase from “The Times They Are a-Changin’ ” and later invoking Seeger’s memory, Gore urged those in attendance to write songs and spread a renewable energy message “all over this land.”

Folk music, he added, “played a positive role in resolving the central question in civil rights, as to what was truly right and truly wrong.”

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/02/22...#storylink=cpy
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:18 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by tiptap View Post
The body of knowledge requires prudence. I am prudent. It is prudent to understand that science gives us the most likely outcome. But that means that there is a 50% chance that the outcome will be worse. That is how science gives its results. It isn't given like insurance underwriters for the worst outcome.

I do fall on the side of expecting worse because the fossil fuel industries wants to increase not even pause. Not prudent in any sense.
So, you will label those who don't agree with you, but will not apply the same to yourself?
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:23 PM   #152
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So, you will label those who don't agree with you, but will not apply the same to yourself?
I seldom use the term denier. I talk about the evidence in favor of explaining the changes that reflect ever higher levels of energy being pumped through the troposphere into active processes. Most easily covered by rising average temperatures because that had the longest history and widest access.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:26 PM   #153
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What percent efficiency is gasoline when used to power an internal combustion engine?
About 50% better than methanol.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:26 PM   #154
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Something like 30%, IIRC.
Yep, which demonstrates that efficiency isn't really that important. So saying that solar cells are only x% efficient isn't that big of a hit. Its the installed cost per unit power that is the critical number.

At present, it is estimated that up to 65% of the installed cost of solar is related to soft costs such as regulations and customer acquisition. There is probably a lot of room for reducing those soft costs.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:27 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by tiptap View Post
I seldom use the term denier. I talk about the evidence in favor of explaining the changes that reflect ever higher levels of energy being pumped through the troposphere into active processes. Most easily covered by rising average temperatures because that had the longest history and widest access.
Well, you chose to here, so I think it's perfectly acceptable to for me to ask how you describe yourself in relation.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:29 PM   #156
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Yep, which demonstrates that efficiency isn't really that important. So saying that solar cells are only x% efficient isn't that big of a hit. Its the installed cost per unit power that is the critical number.

At present, it is estimated that up to 65% of the installed cost of solar is related to soft costs such as regulations and customer acquisition. There is probably a lot of room for reducing those soft costs.
Again, I'm all for it in general, but I'm not sure that we dump a tremendous amount of dollars into it without expecting or seeing improved results.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:29 PM   #157
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I don't, but it is an often quoted adage.

What is the current time estimate on its commercial viability?
That gets a bit tricky. The key is to achieve ignition and for the first time EVER this month we made a huge leap towards that. NIF managed to get 2.6 times the energy put in and also prove that bootstrapping was occurring. Very exciting stuff but still a ways to go. If I had to guess, I'd say 20-30 years and we will have prototype reactors ready if we get lucky. The progress has been a steady forward march though... well worth more investment.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:37 PM   #158
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Well, you chose to here, so I think it's perfectly acceptable to for me to ask how you describe yourself in relation.
No I didn't. The last thread entry is my fist use of that term. I am a prudent activist scientist

By the way it is your cutesy statement of asking "Do you think that things tend to reach a balance" that lead to the discussion years ago pointing out how un Newtonian a thought. And we discussed how even Oxford beginning Physicist miss a lot of Newtonian reasoning.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:41 PM   #159
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No I didn't. The last thread entry is my fist use of that term. I am a prudent activist scientist


You didn't choose to use the term denier in this thread?

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By the way it is your cutesy statement of asking "Do you think that things tend to reach a balance" that lead to the discussion years ago pointing out how un Newtonian a thought. And we discussed how even Oxford beginning Physicist miss a lot of Newtonian reasoning.
I don't remember that specific discussion but yes, I do think that nature tends toward equilibrium. You disagree?
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:44 PM   #160
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Again, I'm all for it in general, but I'm not sure that we dump a tremendous amount of dollars into it without expecting or seeing improved results.
Auto industry and natural gas fired turbines have a 100 year history of only getting 30% efficiency. Not much improvement compared to the improvement in solar over the last decades either.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:45 PM   #161
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You didn't choose to use the term denier in this thread?



I don't remember that specific discussion but yes, I do think that nature tends toward equilibrium. You disagree?
This is not Newtonian in expression. It is Medieval derived philosophy.

Find a tread where I used the term myself. I have quoted in my entries the use of the term.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:47 PM   #162
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Auto industry and natural gas fired turbines have a 100 year history of only getting 30% efficiency. Not much improvement compared to the improvement in solar over the last decades either.
Sure, just double.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:49 PM   #163
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This is not Newtonian in expression. It is Medieval derived philosophy.
And that's a non-answer.

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Find a tread where I used the term myself. I have quoted in my entries the use of the term.
Actually, you just used the word "deny" in this thread, so I'll let you off the proverbial hook.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:58 PM   #164
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That gets a bit tricky. The key is to achieve ignition and for the first time EVER this month we made a huge leap towards that. NIF managed to get 2.6 times the energy put in and also prove that bootstrapping was occurring. Very exciting stuff but still a ways to go. If I had to guess, I'd say 20-30 years and we will have prototype reactors ready if we get lucky. The progress has been a steady forward march though... well worth more investment.
I agree, that it is worth more investment. However, I know that the challenges in materials to make fusion viable are nearly as daunting as the nuclear physics.

I think photovoltaics are worth subsidizing now, due to the learning curve effect, known as Swanson's law in photovoltaics and Moore's law in computing. The more you install, the cheaper it becomes.

Here is my proposal (I call it the Best Energy Plan, BEP for short): economists have determined estimates of the cost of adding carbon to the atmosphere, assuming the projections of the IPCC are accurate. Take this value, and make it a tax credit for any end user that adopts renewable energy. Allow various types of renewable energy so we are not picking winners and losers, but also require a certain amount of diversity of eligible energy forms to avoid putting all of our eggs in one energy basket that might have unintended consequences. Allow this incentive to apply to a certain percentage of the energy demand: perhaps increase the use of renewables by 1% of the total energy market per year. This increase is enough to make a market impact, but much smaller than the price volatility already present in energy markets: it won't significantly drag the economy. Dial back the incentives as the cost gap between renewables and conventional energy decreases. After a few years, you could probably let the market control the tax credit incentive based on a fixed target renewable energy fraction. The BEP needs to be a global initiative to have any benefit.
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Old 02-24-2014, 09:58 PM   #165
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And that's a non-answer.
.
Because you don't understand Newtonian thought. If you do not have a conceptual system to correctly utilize Newtonian thought then the words may be the same but not the representation of nature. Equilibrium is not assured or even expected by Newtonian thought. It isn't easy. I can get it wrong if not diligent.
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