Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
I'm prob more worried about the money than the odds. Example: let's suppose you sign Kris Medlen and there's a 50% chance he doesn't pitch for you. 10M x 50% = $5M expected loss. Or Holland at say 2/14: 50% chance you'll lose $7M.
The same odds for Duffy incur a massive 25M loss. I suppose the counter is you'll get a shitload of value for him the time he DOES play. And if he survives most of that time, you really come out ahead.
Strasburg and Harvey having issues this year really would worry me. They are young guys his age.
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Strasburg's may be slightly related to TJ (flexor mass strain), but it isn't directly related. Harvey's is not related (Thoracic outlet).
Strasburg's delivery/motion would leave him more prone to an elbow injury than Duffy's, too. Stras has that dramatic inverted W in his motion. Duffy is more classic/smooth.
re: wRC... and here I thought I was the only person around here who ran statistical calculations long-hand.
Related note: Excel is your friend.