Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan
You might wanna look at stats in 2014.
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I have looked at stats in 2014.
They are similar rotations but the Royals have a slight edge across the board. The Grantland piece does a nice job of breaking this down.
Shields is a little better than Tillman. Ventura is a little better than Chen.
Norris and Vargas have very similar regular numbers (assuming Vargas is the Game 3 starter and not Danny Duffy, in which case Duffy is much better), but Vargas actually has a better FIP.
And Miguel Gonzalez out-performed his FIP by over a run and a half this year. That's pretty crazily, flukily unsustainable. He might have a lower ERA than Guthrie, but I like the odds there.
Danny Duffy was better than Kevin Gausman, too. Though they are similar guys working as the long-men (big-time stuff), Duffy got better results with his this year.
I'm not saying it's a huge gap. It's a small advantage... but in a 7-game series, small advantages can make big differences. Especially when a rotation starts getting shaken up.