[alnorth]

The SEC is at 14 teams now. Maybe they'll expand to 16, but maybe not. They are pretty well tapped out on expansion. Maybe they will grab VPI and NC State.

The Big 10 doesn't seem interested in anyone not named Notre Dame. They also would not be willing to offer them as much tier-3 flexibility as the Big 12. They wont be able to have a Notre Dame network in the Big 10. Notre Dame's times as an independent may be numbered if the new BCS leaves them with no viable or realistic path to a championship, and outside of the SEC, it doesn't sound like the conferences are particularly interested in doing the independents any favors.

Finally, if FSU bolts from the ACC, that conference is a dead duck as far as the BCS is concerned. The SOS is already probably too weak to be a player in the new BCS as it is, replace FSU with another basketball school, and any ACC team who wants to be a player at all in football will need to run for the life rafts whether they want to leave the ACC or not.

Clemson is not going to the SEC. Neither is FSU. You probably aren't cracking the UF/UG/USC alliance, and the SEC is pursuing the network model instead of the national broadcast model anyway, which means expanding the footprint over all else.

If the Big 12 expands, they are probably going to 8 conference games anyway. You'll have plenty of OOC slots to continue any rivalries if you have to abandon a sinking ship.