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Old 03-19-2012, 09:43 PM   #1534
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
No, not really. Many people rate closers so highly that a .500 team or a losing team is advised by their fans to keep him.

The marginal value of a great closer vs a pretty good or average closer is very, very low. However, if you are at 92 wins and you really need 93 or 94 wins to win your division, and you've pretty much maxed out your lineup and rotation, then and only then, might a closer, maybe, be your only spot remaining to eke out that last 1 or 2 extra wins, and if you really need those 1 or 2 wins, you might be advised to pay dearly for him.
And for most teams that make the post-season, 1 or 2 wins may make the difference. Further, once you're there, 1 or 2 wins is everything.

Though again, I disagree with you re: the net value of an elite closer being only 1 or 2 wins. Blown saves are cumulative; they can further tax your 'pen or just put your team in a funk for a day or 2.

The difference between an average closer and an elite one is about 4 games/season, IMO. I've seen it time and time again. The pre-izzy era Cardinals with Dave Veres were built to contend but blew game after game and by September just lost the drive. The 'bad izzy' Cardinals were the same way. The 2010 Cardinals were sputtering badly through August until Motte righted the ship and they exploded through September. When teams lose in the 9th, they simply struggle to drive through that wall that hits around game 120, when August and September seem interminable. More than any other sport, baseball is about being able to keep your edge through a grind of a season; when guys can't rely on their closer, they start to lose that edge. They stop fighting for 9 innings or through tie games. Again, it's just a cumulative effect that I've seen too many times on teams that I follow daily to simply think a blown save only counts as a single L.

Now as you've noted - if you have a mediocre team to begin with it's no big deal. But if you're an 88 win team with an average closer, being a 92 win team with a dynamite closer could be a massive difference. And hell, even if it's only 2 wins, the difference between 89 wins and 91 is night and day. When you're losing 95 games, 2 more doesn't matter, let alone 4. But when you're losing 75, those 2-4 games could be all the difference in the world.

And ultimately - shouldn't that always be the goal?
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