Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
I just don't like what you get back from Seattle for Butler. I think it's a fit issue. If the Royals trade a key hitter, it needs to be for a SP who can contribute and is established at the MLB level.
I love Walker, but he's a 19-year-old who needs to repeat AA. I like Montero, but he likely is never better than Butler is now.
It's a major downgrade to the lineup for at least this season. And you're counting on a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP).
My point was: If you're going to make the 2013 lineup worse, you either need immediate pay-off in the rotation OR an overwhelming deal in your favor.
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Meanwhile, I see Seattle as the best possible fit for the Royals. They have a ton of young pitching and really need a bat.
Hultzen and Paxon could absolutely start in 2013. They're not established, but they are major league ready.
I look at it this way - Billy Butler is a more established version of Allen Craig. He's more expensive and has less team control remaining, but he's also more of a sure thing. Then again, Craig can be a good 1b and he's proven to be an adequate RFer (hell, dude played 2b competently in 2011), so there's some defensive value gained over Butler.
Butler probably has a little more value, but they're very very close.
If the Mariners offered Walker and Paxton for Craig, I'd take it immediately. And this is with the Cardinals already having Miller, Rosenthal, Jenkins and Wacha in the system. If anything, we need
more hitters, not pitchers.
I think you're underselling the value of young pitching, or at the very least bypassing it in favor of 'established' pitching. I understand you want to move forward in the competitive cycle
now, but the Royals aren't contenders even if they get a guy like Sanchez. That's why I can't quite get behind your 'immediate payoff' idea - the Royals aren't there yet.
I think you're short-circuiting the process a little here by favoring established pitchers over young ones. The Royals aren't there yet, IMO. By 2014 they will be, but Walker will also be able to play in the majors in 2014 and by 2015 could be a legitimate ace with Paxton as his #2.
Philosophical difference, I suppose. Then again, it could also be the difference in the fan perspective (really tired of losing every year and want the Royals to reward their fandom) as opposed to mine, which I think is a little more clinical as I view the Royals primarily as a plucky underdog cousin that I'd like to see succeed, but aren't really that vested in.