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On "bus vs. monorail": the last time we went, we did not have a great experience with the buses. It was Animal Kingdom Lodge in early December, and it seemed like every bus took 15 minutes to arrive (while buses for other destinations kept going by). Don't get me wrong, buses beat driving. But they're not great. As for the monorail, you have three choices: Grand Floridian (very expensive), Polynesian (expensive), or Contemporary (expensive). Both the Polynesian and Contemporary have their advantages. For the Polynesian, you can monorail or boat to the Magic Kingdom, OR you can walk to the Transportation and Ticket Center to monorail to EPCOT. (The monorail system consists of a loop from the TTC to the Polynesian to the Magic Kingdom to the Contemporary to the Grand Floridian. Then there is a spur that runs from the TTC to EPCOT. The Polynesian is close enough to the TTC that you can walk there in a few minutes.) The Contemporary is close enough to the Magic Kingdom that you can walk it in 10 minutes; nothing beats leaving the park at the end of the night and watching the crowds queue up at the monorail, boats, and buses, while you take a leisurely stroll back to the Contemporary.
As for the rainstorms: go to your local dollar store or big-lots store. Most of them sell a $1 plastic poncho (complete with drawstring hood and elastic-cuffed arms) that is folded up in a small ziploc bag. Carry one around, and wear flipflops: if it starts to pour, you can unfold your raincoat, let the rain fall, not have to worry about your wet legs and feet, and save $10 from not having to buy Disney's heavy rain ponchos.
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