Quote:
Originally Posted by SNR
19. cdcox
Look, I get the value in what statistics does in terms of decision-making and correlation research. Breaking down reality into manageable data chunks (especially if they're quantitative data) is a neat trick.
But ****, cdcox. You ever hear the expression, "Keep work at work?" Because you take this shit pretty far, man. When you're ****ing your wife, do you record your actions in a log for later analysis? Do you put together charts and tables and graphs to find out which position will yield the highest probability of getting her to orgasm properly? When she complains about how you're getting fat from too much beer, do you grunt, "Correlation doesn't imply causation, honey!"
See, I don't even know if you're a health nut or a fatass. But if we were to trade places, I'd find myself running probability scenarios to figure out if you are, even though it can only ever give me a probability figure.
I had an advisor in grad school who was just as invested as you are in research. The running joke among the grad students was that the last words out of his mouth would be a library call number. I'm worried about the same for you, cdcox.
So let me give you a few figures to keep in mind, and maybe they'll put you on the right track.
-I've calculated a 78% probability that when you run weekly playoff scenarios to come up with each team's chances of the playoffs, not once will these percentages ever consistently come up with the correct lineup of probable teams.
-Based on the activity level and age for a Chiefs Planet member of your demographic and post count, there's an 83% likelihood that you're balding and currently have or used to wear a goatee. Incidentally, for everybody else reading this roast, there's also a 91% chance that CP bald and goatee jokes will never not be funny.
-This means you should also probably see a proctologist immediately. Just... trust me. Numbers don't lie.
-Lastly, I did a computer projective analysis of the future of Sandbox Simulations. The results weren't good, so I asked it for your best chance of the program NOT being a buggy piece of shit that people get sick of after 2 months. The best it could do was 4%, accounting for the standard .05 margin of error.
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Heh, I search this thread roughly once a week to see if I've been roasted. So that is why I am just now getting around to acknowledging this roast. First let me say: well done!
Frankly, going on my guy instinct I figured we were in legend territory by now and that the chances of me cracking the top 20 were remote. However, had I created a model that considered 1)post count, 2) longevity, 3) general likability, 4) distinguishing characteristics (my all-things-quantifiable shtick) and 5) the same characteristics of posters roasted so far, I would have projected myself as still having a 53.7% chance of making the top 20. This serves to illustrate the superiority of quantitative methods over gut instinct.
I'm shocked and honored to come in at 19. That puts me in the top 0.16% of all CP posters.
Now to play a little defense. I don't quantify every aspect of my live. Only 19.4% of it. I keep a permanent repository of my playoff projections so any one can evaluate them on their own. Unlike those jerks at Football Outsiders who erase their predictions after every week. My hair density is in the top 32% for my age. Slight receding hairline with absolutely no male pattern baldness. On the other hand, I am in the bottom 20% among males over 20 for facial hair follicle density even though the growth rate of what whiskers I do have is within one standard deviation of the mean. So I've never had a goatee and shave every work day.
Finally a word about Sandbox Simulations. Believe it or not, it is near and dear to my heart on a daily basis. Unfortunately, my current job responsibilities are making it impossible to spend the time on it needed even to run the two beta leagues, let alone to do any new development. Over the next few/several months, my work situation should clarify to the point where I can either spend more time on Sandbox --or-- Rain Man and I will have to figure out an alternative business development strategy.