[duncan_idaho]

So, a text conversation with buddies kicked this into gear, and an extra-long mutual morning nap by the twins allowed me to write it all out. Here are my full offseason thoughts, now that the first domino has fallen (reserve the right to update as things develop)

Coming into 2017, I rank the Royals' needs as follows:

1) Proven middle of the order bat
2) SP
3) RP reinforcement
4) 2B
5) RF/platoon partner for Dyson vs. lefties

Now... my first orders of business are going to be extending Duffy and Herrera. I think both are prime candidates for it. Herrera because he's never had the huge payday, and the security would probably be too much to pass up (even if it's a little bit of a break for 2017 salary).

I sign Duffy to a 4-year, $48 million deal, with a 5th year on a mutual option for $15 million with a $4 million buyout. Structured as follows: $4 million, $12 million, $14 million, $14 million. By doing this, I save $4-4.5 million off of Duffy's 2017 salary. He doesn't really sacrifice any earning power, as he has the buyout to guarantee that money. And those rates on the final three years of the deal are what you would pay on the open market for a 3/4 starter or an elite reliever. So you don't even need Duffy to be ace-like to make it work.

Cash saved: $4.2 million

I sign Herrera to a 3 year, $27 million extension, with a 4th year on a mutual option for $15 million with a $3 million buyout. Structured as follows: $2 million, $10 million, $12 million. Again, the buyout pays him off for taking a hit from his arbitration in 2017. His salaries in 2018 and 2019 are market competitive for a good-not-great closer, a tick below the Jansens/Chapmans. Puts him in place to save 80 games over 2018 and 2019 and hit the 2020 free agent market at age 29 as an elite, established closer.

Cash saved: $3.3 million

That frees up $7.5 million in 2017 salary. If the Royals really did need to shed payroll, maybe that's enough that they don't have to make any other deals to save cash. If, as I think, they are actually going to spend MORE than the $132 they did in, I think that frees up enough to spend wisely in free agency to fill holes.

But I'm going to get a little crazier.

I've long thought suggestions KC would trade one of its 2017 free agents before the July trade deadline were crazy. But when I look around and see the value relievers have right now, I have to look at that differently. I love Wade Davis. But I'm starting to believe the teams' best bet for 2017 improvement involves trading him. What would that look like?

I think if you trade Davis, you have to plug one of the five holes I mentioned above. You're not going to get an MLB-ready middle-of-the-lineup bat for one year of Davis (Dave Stewart is no longer a general manager, alas), but you could get someone you can plug into the rotation or 2B/RF.

Davis Trade Options:
1) Nationals. The Nats' window is closing. Bryce Harper is a free agent after 2018, and the Yankees will come calling. They have been let down by their bullpen for several years in a row. Davis offers them the opportunity to plug that problem, if combined with Koda Glover. The Nationals also have an abundance of pitching talent and options. Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer are signed long-term. Tanner Roark is just entering arbitration. Gio Gonzalez is back for 2017 on an option. Joe Ross was great as a rookie in 2016. And they have uber-prospect Lucas Giolito leading a list of young, controllable starters including Reynaldo Lopez, AJ Cole, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth. Of that group, Giolito is probably untouchable and Fedde is too far from the bigs to be the primary piece. But place any of the others in a deal for Davis, and it starts to make sense. Davis for Lopez and one of Cole or Voth would make sense for both sides. It's also possible KC could seek Andrew Stevenson as the primary or secondary piece, an LSU product who profiles as a plus defender in CF and good hitter, who could be ready as soon as July 2017.

2) Giants. The Giants are rumored to be a big payer and may end up with one of Melancon, Chapman or Jansen in FA, but I don't think that necessarily means they're done on relief pitching. In a win-now window, the Giants could be motivated to deal for Davis. It would have to include their top prospect, Christian Arroyo, who would have to be a 2B for the Royals and is unlikely to be ready at the start of 2017. And it also would likely have to include Tyler Beede, the Giants' No. 2 prospect, who also spent 2016 at AA. In this deal, the Royals are looking for midseason reinforcements in the rotation and at 2B. Arroyo is not likely to be a superstar but would be a very steady plus bat at 2B. Beede has No. 2 starter upside.

3) Dodgers. The Dodgers also figure to spend big and land one of the top 3 closers, but like the Giants could use more bullpen help than that. A Davis swap for one of Cody Bellinger (OF/1B with a lefty power stroke who made it to AAA in 2017 and could be ready for MLB by June) or Jose De Leon (SP, with No. 2 starter upside, ready for MLB) would also make sense. It would be risky for KC, with the deal basically having to be a star for prospect swap (likely with a lotto ticket prospect thrown in from LA's side), but it could plug a lot of gaps moving forward and in 2017. Bellinger could be a nice injection of power for the offense, playing RF and DHing in 2017, and taking over at 1B in 2018.

There are more options than these three, but those are the three best trade waters for KC, IMO. I think the Nationals deal is the most likely, as they're the most desperate and have the biggest surplus of assets KC would seek. So I'm going to call Wade Davis to Washington in exchange for Reynaldo Lopez (who immediately becomes your 5th starter) and Austin Voth (who immediately becomes your 6th starter). Both would be rookies in 2017, so you're getting tons of control.

Now, the Royals have traded a $10 million dollar piece for two minimum salary guys. I've freed up a total of $17.5 million from the 2017 payroll, which should put KC somewhere in the $117 million range. I don't need to spend anything in FA on SP now, but have weakened the bullpen. I'll get to that in a few minutes.

With that money, I'm going to target two of three bats on the FA market: Matt Holliday or Carlos Beltran, and Steve Pearce.

Holliday/Beltran are an either/or situation for KC. Not getting both of them for that price. Holliday would be my top target, as a strong RH bat that balances out the lefty-heavy middle of KC's lineup. Playing him primarily at DH, with the rare start in LF when Gordon gets a day off or DHs, should keep Holliday healthy enough to play 140 games (he may also see some time at 1B). He also showed encouraging signs that he may be primed for a rebound season in 2017... was better than Morales in more limited time in 2016 and offers potential for a big upgrade. Something like .280/.375/.500 is still in Holliday's tank, if he's healthy. That would work out to around 25-30 HR, and should help with overall team run production. Also think he might be available on a 1/10-11 million or 2/20 deal.

Beltran is the fallback but is a great one. Think he's maybe a little pricier - $13-14 million in guarantees for 2017 - but I'd look at structuring that as one year with a mutual option... make the 2017 salary $10-11 million and add $2-3 million in buyout. Again, you're relying on the DH role to help Beltran stay healthy, with occasional time in RF (would play there against lefties, with Cain sliding to CF). Also think this is an upgrade from 2016 Morales in production... similar line to Holliday, and an average baserunner rather than a terrible one.

I'm going to go with Holliday as my sign, at $10 million in commitment for 2017. With the rest of my money, I'm looking at Pierce on a 2-year deal for $15-18 million. Pearce isn't a star, but he's a great complementary player who can play 1B, 3B, LF, RF, and even some 2B and punishes lefties (with power). He's a great complement for Jarrod Dyson as your primary CF.

Finally, I top off my bullpen. Herrera is the closer. Matt Strahm stays in the bullpen full-time. Scott Alexander and Brian Flynn are useful options. Joakim Soria needs to be relegated to 6th inning or earlier duties, though, so I spend my last blood, sweat and tears convincing David Glass to let me push payroll in the 140s on a reunion deal with Luke Hochevar, something like 3 years, $20 million (that again, is backloaded). I also sign Drew Storen as my out-of-nowhere reclamation project in the pen. If I can't increase payroll much, I pay for this by backloading some of Pearce's 2017 salary into a buyout (that comes due after 2018)

So what does this all look like?

Rotation:

Duffy (195 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 210 K, with some additional upside in ERA and WHIP but corresponding downside)
Kennedy (200 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 190 K)
Jason Vargas (180 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP - just solid and competitive)
Yordano Ventura (could be great, could be awful, but offers major upside and could benefit from pitching the day after Vargas and showing teams a completely different look)
Reynaldo Lopez (has good stuff, should be a better-than-average final starter)

Rotation depth:
Austin Voth
Mike Minor
Matt Strahm
Chris Young (Stuck with him for 2017)

That's a much rosier rotation situation, with nice mixtures of upside and insurance.

Bullpen:
Herrera
Strahm (eventually moves to the rotation, maybe)
Hochevar
Soria
Wildcard (FA signing like Storen or internal option like Kyle Zimmer of Josh Staumont)
LHP - Scott Alexander
LHP - Brian Flynn
long Relief - Chris Young

Lineup (vs. RHP)

CF - Dyson (.270/.330/.375 in around 400 ABs, also good for 35-40 SB)
3B - Moustakas (.275/.340/.500, with 25-28 HR)
RF - Cain (hopefully the moves allow you to keep him healthy and play him around 145 games, allowing him to go .300/.350/.450, steal 20 bags, and make the lineup work)
1B - Hosmer (.290/.340/.450, with potential for that complete season which would look something like . 320/.375/.500, with 30 HR)
DH - Holliday (.280/.375/.500, 25-30 HR)
LF - Gordon (I don't think he's done, and feel confident .260/.340/.425 is a reasonable floor for him, if healthy)
C - Sal Perez (.260/.290/.400, with 20-25 HR)
2B - Steve Pearce (.270/.330/.425 vs RH)
SS - Escobar (who cares)

Bench-
2B - Whit Merrifield. I don't think he's a star, but he could be replacement level at 2B for a low cost offensively, with plus D and baserunning.
C - Butera/Perez. Not going to play enough regardless.
OF - Orlando (now basically a 4th OF, offers some insurance for Cain's injury proneness)

In Merrifield and Pearce, you also have two very utilitarian pieces. Only real problem is that you don't have a quality reserve SS.


Lineup (vs. LHP)
2B - Merrifield (hit lefties well as a rook, think .280/.320/.400 is a reasonable target for him against lefties)
3B - Moustakas (against really tough lefties, could sit him for Pearce, who rakes lefties)
CF - Cain
1B - Hosmer (again, could be rested for Pearce against tough lefties)
DH - Holliday
LF - Gordon (see: Pearce)
C - Perez
RF - Pearce (had an OPS over 1.000 against lefties in 2016 and has a career .852 line against them)
SS - Escobar

Bench -
Dyson
Orlando
C

To review:

1) Middle of the order bat: Solved with Matt Holliday
2) SP: Improved both rotation and depth with trade of Wade Davis
3) RP reinforcement: Questionable, probably not quite as great. Davis/Herrera/Strahm definitely has more upside than Herrera/Strahm/Hochevar, with probably less risk. But with a better rotation, is that still an issue?
4) 2B - Pearce is not going to be a great defender at 2B, but he and Merrifield are a productive combo there
5) RF/platoon. Pearce is a perfect complement to Dyson... in part because he crushes lefties, but also because his versatility and ability to play 3B and 2B adds some utility to his roster spot.

I think that's a team that can win the Central and win another World Series, without huge doses of luck. You have some safeguards built in for injuries to the rotation and lineup... but even with all that, if Gordon, Cain, Perez and Hosmer all have 2016 repeats, it falls apart. Their improvement/bounce back is probably the most important piece. The Royals also still have some trade chips in Cuthbert and Dozier who could be used to sweeten a deal involving Davis and improve the return, or who could be trade chips at the deadline.

Your thoughts?