Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla
I know exactly what you're saying and largely agree with it. However, in this case, trading up to draft this particular guy appears to be more than luck; they wanted THIS player and weren't content with picking the best player available at their slotted selection.
Luck is certainly a significant element of the equation, but I think moving up to select a particular player moves the action further away from the influence of luck.
|
I think they wanted about 4 players (along with Cook, Kamara and Mixon) and after the other 3 were gone, they saw one guy left in that particular tier and moved up.
They wanted a RB and didn't want to be left standing there alone when the music stopped so they made an aggressive move. And yes, they absolutely deserve credit for that. But that's where skill and luck align.
Like I said, you have to be a good front office to be in a position to capitalize on good luck and the Chiefs front office is unquestionably a very good one. But there's a high degree of luck involved in getting a superstar in the 3rd round as well, especially a superstar that you took after a guy that's unlikely to see meaningful snaps this year. They also went RB hunting in a draft class that looks like it may be historically great for RBs. Even apart from Hunt you have Fournette looking legit, Cook looked great, Kamara's going to be a stud IMO, Foreman's looked damn good in limited run and will have that starting gig by year's end, IMO. Carson looked fantastic in Seattle. Even guys like Cohen, Gallman and Jones look like they may be very good players all the way down to someone like Breida who's SPARQ score is unreal and may just be the right opportunity away from being a 1,000 yard back in his own right.
I mean hell, would it be a complete shock if 2 years from now a full 1/3 of the starting RBs in the NFL came from this draft class? It's a crazy class for ballcarriers when a record-setting back like Perine isn't likely to be one of the top 10 RBs in the class.
The Chiefs targeted a position and when the board wasn't falling exactly as they'd hoped, they made a move to get a great ballplayer - credit is due. But they targeted a position in a comically deep draft for same (which was not expected) and in the process got a guy that was better than even their most optimistic projections.
That's the paradox of skill in action.