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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Ideally you do both.
Rolling $30 million into 2019 is better than rolling $17 million. It all matters.
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Agreed
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
For this pick to really be a homerun, Mahomes has to either 1) Be a genuine superstar; a top 5 caliber QB (top 10 at worst) or 2) Mahomes has to be average to slightly above average starting in 2018 so that the financial advantage of having him can accrue immediately, especially given the fact that his 5th year option won't be nearly as advantageous as someone taking at pick 11 or later would have been.
1 is a long-shot. I love Mahomes but you can't just say "X player WILL be an All-Pro"; the odds overwhelmingly suggest he won't. He may have better odds than many would, but they're still less than 50/50. So with that thin margin for error, you'd be better served betting on option 2 - Smith needs to be replaced by 2018 or this move (using two 1st rounders) will start to look pretty bad.
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And this is the whole thing: No one knows.
Sure, Reid, Dorsey and Hunt did all the research on the guy, feel he has the potential to be a very good to great player and Mahomes has an excellent bloodline of professional sports in his lineage.
But no one can absolutely state that he's a "Franchise QB", future HOFer (which is pretty much what you need to be a consistent Super Bowl winner and threat) and that he'll unequivocally be ready to lead the Chiefs franchise to 10+ wins in 2018.
It's an educated guess.
But the thing that really stands out to me, at least with 90% of CP members, is that they're forgetting about the journey that several of the highest drafted players currently on the Chiefs roster took before realizing their potential.
It took Derrick Johnson six years before he lived up to his draft expectations and took Tamba Hali five full years before registering 10+ sacks. Eric Berry is still growing as a player! It took Jamaal Charles a few seasons until he was able to be a consistent threat. Dee Ford was considered a "bust" by most of CP (not me, of course) before breaking out in 2016 (his third season) with double digit sacks. Eric Fisher is still ascending and his best years are ahead of him (the same was with Chris Jones and Mitch Morse and LDT, etc.).
The bottom line is that you're absolutely correct, especially in regards to John Dorsey, in that he drafts players as projections for their ceiling, and not finished products.