Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Ideally you do both.
Rolling $30 million into 2019 is better than rolling $17 million. It all matters.
For this pick to really be a homerun, Mahomes has to either 1) Be a genuine superstar; a top 5 caliber QB (top 10 at worst) or 2) Mahomes has to be average to slightly above average starting in 2018 so that the financial advantage of having him can accrue immediately, especially given the fact that his 5th year option won't be nearly as advantageous as someone taking at pick 11 or later would have been.
1 is a long-shot. I love Mahomes but you can't just say "X player WILL be an All-Pro"; the odds overwhelmingly suggest he won't. He may have better odds than many would, but they're still less than 50/50. So with that thin margin for error, you'd be better served betting on option 2 - Smith needs to be replaced by 2018 or this move (using two 1st rounders) will start to look pretty bad.
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So you think the Chiefs moved up and drafted the first QB (1st round) in 34 years but believe he is a long shot to be a star?
Seems from their interviews- they DO think he is going to be a STAR.