[KChiefs1]

Trade scenarios for each upcoming Royals free agent.


With four Royals likely heading for free agency this offseason, I asked myself "what could they get in return?"

Here are trade scenarios for each of the four (1B Eric Hosmer, OF Lorenzo Cain, 3B Mike Moustakas, SS Alcides Escobar) if the Royals are in the tank heading into September.

Eric Hosmer:

Possible Trade Destinations: Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets

Eric Hosmer is one of the most popular first baseman in baseball right now. He has swagger, natural good-looks, and a beautiful swing. He would be one of the top names on the market if he was available right now. But that can be misleading. Anyone that really watched the Royals in the second half of the season could see that Hoz was struggling. After a smoking hot April and May, Hosmer struggled to hit for average as he hit .234 after April/May. He hit more home runs in the second half, despite having a lower average and less at bats. He hit twice as many doubles in the first half than the second half. That leads me to believe that he tried too hard to hit the ball 600 feet. Cheslor Cutbert had a higher OBP than Hoz in the second half. The Royals could trick a team into thinking that he's a great hitter, but they'd be wasting their time.

Proposed Trade:

Nationals Recieve: 1B Eric Hosmer, RHP Joakim Soria

Royals Recieve: OF Victor Robles (#10 MLB.com prospect), RHP Joe Ross

Lorenzo Cain:

Possible Trade Destinations: Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets

Lorenzo Cain is one of baseball's top center fielders and is wildly underrated, even though he finished third in the AL MVP voting in 2015. But, as it always has in Cain's career, injuries took a toll. He only appeared in 103 games, his lowest since 2012. Ned Yost experimented with Cain in right field and Paulo Orlando in center field for 29 games in 2016 to preserve Cain's legs. But now with the acquisition of Jorge Soler to man right field, Cain seems like a lock for centerfield in 2017. Cain could receive a decent return for a buying team in July, but not anything like he could have if he was 3-4 years younger.

Proposed Trade:

Mets Receive: OF Lorenzo Cain

Royals Receive: OF/DH Michael Conforto, RHP Robert Gsellman (Mets #14 Prospect via MLB.com)

Mike Moustakas:

Possible Trade Destinations: Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets

Moose's trade value will take a big dip because of the two injuries he suffered in 2016, but can produce like some of the AL's top third basemen, as he showed in 2015. His walk numbers are increasing every year and has produced very well after his 2014 demotion to AAA Omaha. If he were to leave KC, he would be remembered as a postseason hero and one of the best clubhouse guys to be around. I think that the Royals should really think about resigning Moose to a 3-year deal worth about 8MM annually with incentives. That would bring him to a similar contract to Cardinals standout Matt Carpenter (6/52M through 2020) who is more accomplished than Moustakas. Carpeneter signed the extension after the 2012 season in which he had a WAR of 1.0, whereas Moose had a 4.4 WAR in 2015 and was on pace for a 3.5 WAR in 2016 before being injured. Moose is my favorite Royal and I think the front office needs to realize that he means to much to the franchise to let him walk.

Proposed Trade

Astros Receive: 3B Mike Moustakas

Royals Recieve: RHP Ken Giles, OF Daz Cameron (Astros #6 prospect via MLB.com)

Alcides Escobar:

Possible Trade Destinations: Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates

Esky is probably my least favorite on this list because of his lack of patience and uppercut swing. Escobar could probably be a top ten shortstop in baseball if he could lead off, but his inability to watch pitches during an at-bat is decreasing his value. Of course he'll go off for a .478 average in a playoff series because he'll face the same pitcher two or three times in a two week span and will figure out what he throws on the first pitch. He started hitting more home runs in 2016, but he also started popping out more. I believe that Escobar is the best fielding shortstops in baseball, but that won't get you very far in a league that is now driven by pitching and strikeouts. Escobar is the least likely to resign with KC and will most likely get the least in return. Raul Mondesi could be seeing playing time at shortstop in August if Yost and Moore don't like what they see from Esky.

Proposed Trade

Pirates Receive: SS Alcides Escobar

Royals Receive: LHP Taylor Hearn (Pirates #21 prospect via MLB.com)

Why to trade them:

The Royals success in 2014-15 was made from homegrown, young, exciting prospects. KC does not have this at the time, with their top prospect being a left-handed setup man or an up-and-down third baseman. KC needs some help down in the farm and that isn't going to come from magic. It is going to come from trades and top 10 picks as the Astros and Cubs showed us. Kansas City needs another key core, and that core isn't going to be led by Jorge Soler and Josh Staumont. The Royals depleted their farm system in their attempt to bring a World Series to KC, but now it's time to get younger.

Why to keep them:

If you ask a general KC Royals fan who has been with them since around 2012 who their favorite player was, 20% would probably say Salvy (who is the most untouchable player in baseball right now) and maybe a combination of 50-60% would say one of the four pending free agents. We would lose part of the fanbase that went through the rebuild and that fell in love with this team. I truly believe that the 2017 team has a postseason run in them. The chances of Moore and David Glass putting together the millions of dollars to keep this core together is maybe 10%, and they would have to break open the bank. Hoz will want 10/225M possibly, Cain will want 3/45M, Moose would take a 4/48M, and Esky might have to take a one year deal. Dayton needs to do everything in his power to keep the core together.

What do we do??

I would personally let Hosmer walk. Anyone on Earth above the height of 6'2 can play first base (Moneyball, anyone?), and with players like Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert being stopped at third base, a transition to first would be an easy one. Resign Cain and Moose to hometown discounts (not Alex Gordon's idea of a "discount"), and they would probably take one. Letting Escobar walk is the obvious decision with Raul Mondesi being ready, possibly, by September. That would give KC a lineup like this:

2B Whit Merrifield
3B Mike Moustakas
CF Lo Cain
DH Brandon Moss
RF Jorge Soler
LF Alex Gordon
C Sal Perez
1B Hunter Dozier/Cheslor Cuthbert
SS Raul Mondesi



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