http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story...rojections-nfl
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 12-4 (11.6 mean wins; SOS: 29)
2. San Diego Chargers: 8-8 (8.4 mean wins; SOS: 31)
3. Denver Broncos: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins; SOS: 13)
4. Oakland Raiders: 6-10 (6.4 mean wins; SOS: 14)
The AFC West has our most controversial projections for 2016, none more so than saying the defending champion Broncos are more likely to have a losing record than a winning record in 2016...
Replacing the Broncos as the likely AFC West standard bearers are the Chiefs. This is only a surprise if you don't realize just how good the Chiefs were last year when they finished the season with 10 straight wins. Even incorporating their 1-5 start, the Chiefs ended up with a higher overall DVOA (fifth) than the Broncos (eighth). One big question here will be the health of pass-rusher Justin Houston. We don't know if he'll be ready by September or miss the whole year; for this projection, we assumed he would miss half the season. But while the Chiefs are definitely not as strong on defense without Houston, they won the last five games in that 10-game streak with Houston stuck on the sidelines...
Full AFC projected playoff standings
Here's what the 2016 AFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
3. New England Patriots (10-6)
4. Houston Texans (8-8)
5. Cincinnati Bengals* (10-6)
6. Baltimore Ravens* (10-6)
7. Buffalo Bills (9-7)
8. San Diego Chargers (8-8)
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)
10. Denver Broncos (7-9)
11. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
12. Tennessee Titans(7-9)
13. Oakland Raiders (6-10)
14. New York Jets (6-10)
15. Miami Dolphins (5-11)
16. Cleveland Browns (4-12)