The records of teams to get wildcards in the AFC of the last three years:
2013: Chiefs 11-5, Chargers 9-7
2012: Colts 11-5, Bengals 10-6
2011: Steelers 12-4, Bengals 9-7
In the last three years, 100% of the AFC teams that have finished 10-6 or better got into the playoffs, at least as Wild Cards.
In the last three years, three non-division winners finished 9-7, and only the 2011 Titans failed to secure a Wild Card berth. Zero teams with 8-8 or worse have received a WC berth.
That roughly means that if you're not winning your division in today's AFC, you've got a 0% chance to get in if you finish 8-8 or worse. Teams that finish 9-7 have a 2/3s chance of getting in. And teams that finish better than that get in 100% of the time.
The Chiefs have five games for the remainder of the season that they should definitely win:
- Week 8, hosting the Rams
- Week 9, hosting the Jets
- Week 10, hosting the Bills
- Week 12, hosting the Raiders
- Week 15, visiting Oakland
With those 5 games in our pocket -- and obviously nothing is a sure thing -- that should give us a starting position of 7-2.
Which means, to get to that magical 9-7 threshold, we need two more wins. And three more wins if we want to be a sure thing.
The remaining games to get two wins from:
- Week 5, visiting San Francisco
- Week 7, visiting San Diego
- Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
- Week 13, hosting the Broncos
- Week 14, visiting Arizona
- Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
- Week 17, hosting the Chargers
I would hope the Chiefs could secure at least two more wins here, but I'll be damned if I know where it is.
Shit, this year's schedule is brutal.