Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
We always do. Because FIP has a big hole in its methodology for fly ball pitchers. It would be one thing if Guthrie had very little time in the majors, but we're talking about a decade and a few thousand innings of work here.
Guthrie has outperformed his FIP by half a run over the course of his career, and has outperformed it every season of his career (the closest he has come was within 0.15 in 2011, when he was still JUST below a league-average pitcher according to ERA+ at 97).
He has outperformed FIP by about a half run since becoming a Royal (3.92 ERA vs. 4.53 FIP).
At some point, the track record becomes deep enough that you either have to take the FIP stat with a grain of salt or ignore real life results.
His velocity is down a little this spring (an MPH on his 4-seam fastball). Now, that means 1 of 3 things to me:
1) He's hurt
2) He's suffering spring dead arm (common among starting pitchers)
3) He's starting to lose it
Whatever the reason, if he doesn't start to turn it around soon, the Royals will have to make a move, especially if Chris Young continues to be so effective.
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I hope it's only one move, as Vargy has been pretty bad as well. He's averaging less than 5 innings per outing and is sporting a 1.72 WHIP.