[lewdog]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'm not speaking directly to the Moustakas thing as his DWAR certainly hasn't helped him and I've never been terribly impressed by his defense (I found him competent, but that's about it).

I'm speaking to WAR generally. It weights defensive contributions too heavily for a stat that simply isn't very good at working with small numbers. The problem is that there's not a significantly better option. I do like that WAR provides position 'penalties' for players that play down the defensive spectrum, but I don't care for its attempts to actually determine and calculate how well a players played that position in a given month/year.

Baseball info solutions DRS is what I prefer for shorter samples but even it's not infallible. That said, DRS says that Moustakas has been worth -6 runs this year (roughly half a game lost) so his glove has clearly been an issue for him over the course of the season. But DRS isn't compared vs. replacement level but rather league average, so I'd say a -10 DRS player is probably roughly replacement level defensively. So Moustakas dWAR on the season should be in the roughly neutral range.

Just thinkin' out loud...

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Here's an interesting fact - Jedd Gyorko has the 2nd best DRS in baseball at 3b this year; only 3 behind 1st place (give ya two guesses who that is and you'll only need one). He's closer to 1st than he is to 2nd.

He's roughly 20 defensive runs saved ahead of Moustakas which means his glove has been worth 2 wins compared to Moose's.

I like Moustakas's bat quite a bit but he's looked a little heavier than years past anytime I've seen him play this year. It's possible that he HAS lost some range. He's in the bottom 1/3 of MLB 3rd basemen this year in DRS.

It still seems odd that he's that low among 3b in WAR to me, but it's hard to be a top 10 overall player if your defense places you in the bottom 3rd. Especially at an offensively critical position like 3b where you're already paying a slight WAR penalty for being down the defensive spectrum a bit and most anybody that plays the hot corner can put a charge into the ball.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He's 9th in wOBA and RC+ among qualified 3b and he's held back largely by his refusal to take a walk (which really hurts his OBP, obviously). Add that to the below average defensive performance and pretty poor baserunning figures and I guess it's not that shocking that he's rated a little lower than I figured he'd be.

There are some DAMN good players at 3b this year. In the end, he's just facing some pretty stiff competition at the position so it's driving him down the ranks a bit. I'd say I'd put him in the 8-10th most valuable 3b in the game this year, but when you start to include guys like Sano (who plays a lot of DH) and Harrison/Ramirez (who's WAR is boosted by their time spent at 2b) as well as some closer calls like Longoria, Gyorko, Machado and Seager, I could see how he'd fall down some of those lists depending on how they figure them.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Manny Machado is a good player and a great defender.

Nolan Arenado is a god among men.

Andrelton Simmons kinda broke a few defensive metrics a few years back and I'm a little surprised that Arenado hasn't done the same (some would argue he did in 2013). There's no better defender at any position in the game than Nolan.

The guys a magician.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Eh, that's still Mike Trout. Mike Trout spends 81 games a year trying to blast a ball through a marine layer that I've seen knock down balls that came off the bat at 105 mph. It's incredible to me what he's been able to accomplish in one of the tougher hitting environments in baseball (LAA at night is just brutal).

Put Trout in Coors and I honestly think he could challenge .400. Especially now that he's fixed his K rate while simultaneously bringing his BB rate up AND spiking his power. The current version of Mike Trout may be the most dangerous offensive weapon in baseball HISTORY. And his defense is fine while playing a premium position (no longer elite, but still quite good).

I love Arenado - he may be my favorite player to watch in the game. But it's hard to say he's better than a guy that plays a harder position well, runs the bases exceptionally well and puts up offensive numbers that rival or exceed Arenado's in a far far tougher hitting environment.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Sure they have. But WAR hasn't fully incorporated all of them. dWAR still requires a larger sample size.

You have to use the more specific ones like DRS. I'd imagine the proprietary stuff that heavily utilizes statcast would blow our minds.

I think we get great stuff from John Dewan and his boys, but I think the stuff that the teams never let see the light of day is probably quite a bit better.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Well that's just silly.

Even the things that adjust for park effect have had him routinely in the top 20 due to the fact that he still demonstrates plus power and above average offense even on the road and that his defense doesn't slump.

Moreover, people fail to properly account for the 'Coors hangover'. Everyone's numbers go down when the leave Coors, sure. But it's completely unfair to say "he'd hit to his road numbers if he left" because Coors dicks guys up on the road. They're simply not used to pitches doing what they do.

So sure, their home OPS tends to decrease by 100 points (let's just ballpark for effect) but in the process their road OPS increases by 50 as they're no longer dealing with wild swings in the type of stuff they face based on whether they're at home or on the road.

So sure, Arenado wouldn't put up an OPS over 1 at home anymore, but he'd start putting up an OPS over .900 on the road (he's putting up an OPS approaching .900 on the road even now). I think he'd level out to being a .900-.920 OPS player outside of Coors, provided that he's still in his prime.

Guy's a ridiculous ballplayer.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

On defense? C'mon - there's nobody that touches him defensively.

And again, I think Coors hitters are unfairly calculated by getting penalized for playing in Coors in park adjustments but then do not get a commensurate 'bump' for the fact that playing in Coors also damages their road numbers.

If you'd take any 3b in baseball over Nolan Arenado, I think you're nuts. The guy impacts games in ways very few guys can. That said, I'll concede that Rendon's having an exceptional season. I still wouldn't take him over Arenado.

Trying to help out the lost soul in the Royals thread.

Don't let ChiefsCountry catch you doing that shit again!!!